Last Week: 11-5. That’s a very positive start to a new season. Sunshine abounds!

The second week can be a tricky forecast. Opening weekend often produces some unexpected results, surprise outcomes casting clouds upon conventional preseason wisdom. Are certain teams really as good as they looked, or conversely were some players or teams showing we need to reconsider and downgrade going forward?

My general rule of thumb is that each situation must be judged individually, and to err on the side of fluke. After all, this happened last year…

 

Week 2 is a validator. It confirms or rebuts the Week 1 action…mostly. Here is what I think we’ll see…

Thursday Night

- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5): We’re going to learn a lot about Peyton Manning in this game. A week after his arm looked shot and the aggressive Baltimore defense did a fine job keeping Peyton and his receivers reading separate pages, the Broncos now travel to hostile Kansas City. The Chiefs have a talent-laden defense that brought all kinds of heat in the opener, registering a sack percentage just below 10 percent and allowing just 6.3 yards per attempt. If Manning struggles once again to stretch the field and can’t adequately handle the pressure, the Broncos are in more trouble than folks might want to admit.

Here’s the thing: Denver can win with defense. The Broncos' D completely shut down Baltimore. They rank first in several stat metrics, and it’s not a fluke. Von Miller, Demarcus Ware, Chris Harris, Brandon Marshall, we knew they were all very good. But when they get performances like they did from the likes of Shaq Barrett, Bradley Roby and Darian Stewart last week, this defense can be suffocating. I believe they will challenge Alex Smith to try and throw a touchdown to a wideout. They will double dog dare Smith, and he will instead keep throwing to Travis Kelce and riding Jamaal Charles. Those guys are both fantastic, but they’re not going to beat this Denver D without some more meaningful contribution from Albert Wilson, Jeremy Maclin & Co. I think KC gets just enough to eke out the win.

Chiefs 20, Broncos 17

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+.5): Much gets made of Rex Ryan and his alleged defensive mastery of Tom Brady, the mental edge he holds on Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Nobody likes to talk about this more than Ryan himself. Heck, he admits to practically designing his Jets' defenses specifically to square off against those Patriots, often at the expense of being a viable opponent against many other teams.

Here’s the cold, hard truth on Ryan vs. the Patriots. New England has gone 9-4 against teams where Rex was Head Coach, a number that bumps up to 11-4 when also considering Ryan as a Defensive Coordinator. Brady has a gaudy TD/INT ratio of 25/8 and a QB rating that is almost the same against Rex’s teams (88.9) than the Jets units he faced prior to Ryan’s arrival (92.8).

Of course, Buffalo is a different animal. This Bills' defense was already an upper echelon collection of talent at all three levels. They completely dominated an erratic Andrew Luck and the high-powered Colts in the opener, pitching a shutout well into the second half. More impressively, Buffalo defenders got their hands on an astonishing 13 passes (11 PDs, 2 INTs). No other team topped 6 (New Orleans and Philadelphia, if you care). That is both aggression to the ball and an understanding of what the opposing offense is going to do.

New England’s passing offense, however, is quite different from Indy's. Tom Brady butters his bread with heaping helpings of underneath crosses, hitches and slants…when he’s not finding Gronk destroying anyone who tries to cover him down the seams. I have zero doubt the Bills do a better job against Rob Gronkowski than the Steelers did in the opener. It’s hard to do less that Pittsburgh did, quite honestly, as they forgot to cover the All-World TE with anyone a few times.

My debate here is whether Tyrod Taylor and the Bills offense can outscore the 17 points I anticipate out of New England. Balanced teams that can also hit big plays tend to fare the best against Team Hoodie, and the Bills check both boxes. I like the home team to keep the early momentum rolling.

Bills 20, Patriots 17 

Sunday Rest

- Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-2.5): There are a couple of reasons why I like the Giants here. First, they outplayed Dallas but the New York coaching staff cost them the victory. I don’t see Tom Coughlin making that same sort of egregious mistake two weeks in a row. Second, Atlanta is going on the road after a Monday night game where they played their butts off to beat Philadelphia. Short week, road trip, playing a fast-paced team that does things quite differently from this week’s opponent. That’s a challenge. I do like Atlanta’s new defensive scheme, and it’s hard to not love Matt Ryan to Julio Jones. But I think they get a setback this week.

Giants 24, Falcons 21 

- San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5): Two of the most impressive teams from the opening week meet in The Jungle. The Bengals blew out the Raiders with a great balance on both sides of the ball. San Diego rattled off 30 straight points to come back and nip the Lions, allowing just 47 plays and overcoming a couple of brutal turnovers.

One reason why I like the Chargers’ chances is that Cincinnati is stylistically similar on both sides of the ball to San Diego’s Week 1 opponent. Mike McCoy and his staff won’t have to change much in terms of game prep, but instead they can focus inward and work on tuning their own engine. Cincinnati doesn’t face a radical departure either, just a much more precise and competent opponent on both sides of the ball. It’s going to come down to execution, and I like what I saw from Andy Dalton, Tyler Eifert and the Bengals offense to do things to this San Diego defense the Lions failed to try. I also like Cincinnati’s special teams to provide an advantage. This is a tough forecast but I think the bookmakers are right on with the line here.

Bengals 26, Chargers 21 

- Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+2.5): A healthy Carson Palmer throwing to John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald and even Darren Fells is way too much for Chicago’s defense. The Bears were game against Green Bay, and their D-line is better than you might think. But their secondary and linebackers are going to be badly overmatched here. Jay Cutler will not be able to outscore Arizona without getting a defensive or special teams score. Palmer would be a smart choice for DFS fantasy this week.

Cardinals 33, Bears 24

- Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+1.5): This is the one where Cleveland fans are teased by seeing another team draft the right quarterback in the first round while their own, most recent of many first-round QBs doesn’t come anywhere close to the billing. At least that’s what the defeatist purveyors of negativity in the Cleveland sport media (Hey Tony!) will have you believe.

That might be true in this game. Marcus Mariota was technically perfect in his very first game, a QB Rating of 158.3 which is as high as the scale goes. He set a modern NFL era record by throwing four TDs in his first start, and did so before halftime. And the Browns defense had some very real problems against New York, unable to get off the field on third down and consistently getting blown backwards on run defense to help set up those short third downs. So I do expect Mariota to once again look great. If I were playing a daily fantasy football game, I’d strongly consider using the young Titan as my QB.

I watched Johnny Manziel do some positive things in relief of the injured Josh McCown. Really. Sure, his ball security is lousy and he has trouble finding throwing lanes from the pocket, and he’s too quick to try and go schoolyard on a play. But when he had a clean sight line and the ability to step into his throws, Johnny Football looked promising. If he protects the ball, and if the Browns can create a turnover or two by adjusting to finally having the Mariota offense on film to study, I think Cleveland has a very good chance here. Their defense is far more physical and proactive than Tampa Bay’s, and that can change the equation. Somehow, I smell a victory for the Dawg Pound faithful.

Browns 24, Titans 21 

- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): The Lions really missed LB DeAndre Levy in San Diego, as the Chargers continually exploited the absence of one of the best coverage backers in the league. Detroit had no answer for all the intermediate crossing routes and delayed releases from the tight ends and backs.

Guess what Minnesota did with some degree of success against San Francisco? That’s right, running layered route trees and having QB Teddy Bridgewater pick on the shorter routes. The Niners' defense was great at snuffing it out. Detroit couldn’t do that at all in its opener. They’re dead in the water of a few of those 10,000 lakes in Minnesota if they can’t do it here.

Fortunately for the Lions, I think their offense will play better. Only targeting Calvin Johnson four times is madness which will not be repeated. Detroit only ran 47 plays last week. Their 3-year average is a little over 65, and just twice in that time have they run fewer than 52. Minnesota faced 73 plays last week against a San Francisco team that doesn’t have anything close to the weaponry of Johnson, Golden Tate, Ameer Abdullah and even Eric Ebron. I expect a rebound. A hotly contested rebound, but a rebound nonetheless. Minnesota’s abysmal offensive line helps the visitors pull the upset.

Lions 27, Vikings 24

- St. Louis Rams at Washington (+3.5): I have no real feel for this game. I know, I get paid for this, but I’m just not feeling it. So I turned to my friend and colleague at Detroit Lions Draft, Paulo Figari. Paulo is a Rams fan but not a homer. He also puts up with my aggressive driving and strange fixation with centers and punters in Shrine Game practices. Here’s what he said about this matchup, in summary…

- Ryan Kerrigan and the Washington defensive front is a problem for the Rams’ OL, which was hit and miss vs. Seattle (I added the last part)

- St. Louis is stronger at every positional group except maybe RB, and they could get Todd Gurley and Tre Mason on the field this week

- Kirk Cousins is just not very good (I’m paraphrasing)

- The Rams tend to resemble portable latrines the week after big wins

Paulo picked the Rams 23-13, and that sounds good enough for me. If you like to support young, aspiring draft analysts and MMA aficionados, give Paulo a follow on Twitter @Paulo_FigariNFL.

Rams 23, Ethnic Slurs 13

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5): I played with fire last week, using the Buccaneers as my survivor fantasy pick. Of course, they were annihilated by the Titans, a team I still think is in the bottom 3 in the NFL. I thought Tampa Bay would be better than they are, but as long as Lovie Smith is the coach they’re a bottom 3 team too. New Orleans struggled against a good Arizona team. This is not a good Tampa Bay team, and I think the Saints will flourish at home. They are this week’s survivor fantasy pick.

Saints 38, Buccaneers 25

- San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): Here’s why Pittsburgh should be very, very worried: Carlos Hyde and the 49ers ran for 5.9 yards per carry in the opener. A week after being carved apart by Tom Brady and the Patriots’ precision passing game, here comes San Francisco and their throwback power running game. The Steelers are facing two teams who could not be more divergent in a two-week span. That is very difficult to prepare for as a team, especially one with a rookie defensive coordinator who doesn’t have much talent at his disposal.

The optimist thinks that because the Steelers were so bad against what New England offered, they can only look much better against a San Francisco team that doesn’t pass the ball efficiently. The pessimist thinks the inherent adjustment to try and stop the run will cause even more coverage breakdowns on the back end, and Vernon Davis is still a good enough tight end to make them look silly like Gronk did. The added dimension of Colin Kaepernick’s running ability, as well as his seeming increased dedication to keeping his eyes up and trying to find targets before fully taking off, should make the home defense look sloppy.

I really like what I saw of San Francisco’s defense in the opener, just as I did when the starters played in the preseason. They lost a lot, no question, but this is still a quality unit. I suspect they’ll make Roethlisberger work hard to put up the 27 points needed to win this game. I don’t think the visitors have a real answer for Antonio Brown, however. Tough to pick against the Steelers at home, though the line is about double what I expected.

Steelers 27, 49ers 25 

- Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (-3.5): I applaud Bill O’Brien for quickly switching to Ryan Mallett at QB over Brian Hoyer. I’m no Mallett fan--at all--but he made a couple of throws in relief duty last Sunday that Hoyer simply does not have in his bag. With Nuk Hopkins looking fantastic at wideout, Mallett has the chance to move the ball more effectively. It’s not just about deep balls here, either. Mallett’s increased velocity and tighter placement on things like 8-yard outs and 12-yard skinny posts stress the defense more than Hoyer’s more erratic, less zippy throws.

I believe it will only take a couple of big plays from the Houston offense to outscore Carolina. The Texans defensive front is a major mismatch for Carolina’s offensive line, and Cam Newton just doesn’t have the trustworthy weapons at his disposal to exploit it. Now if Houston tries covering Greg Olsen with Brian Cushing, the story changes. But I like the road team here, so long as Mallett starts and finishes the game.

Texans 19, Panthers 17 

- Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (+6.5): After the first week the “Is Joe Flacco elite” meter is in the guffaw-worthy range. He’s the lowest rated QB in the NFL, completely shut down by Denver. Alas, Oakland’s defense is not Denver. Just when you start burying Flacco, he does something to make that Elite Meter swing back the other direction. I expect an oddly big week out of Flacco, whose oop-de-doop demeanor is ideal for cold-blooded rebounds. Oakland not having Charles Woodson (he did not practice Wed.) will only foster the Flacco bounce back. Baltimore will miss Terrell Suggs on defense, but a banged-up Derek Carr won’t be able to take advantage.

Ravens 26, Raiders 16

- Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5): Surely the Jaguars can’t be as dysfunctional and under-talented as they looked in their opening loss to Carolina? Beyond the losing score, Jacksonville just seemed to have too many players in key roles who would be backups on the other roster. They also didn’t attack Carolina’s weaknesses very effectively, or even try all that hard.

Miami did not play well but still wound up beating back Washington. I’ll take the team which found a way to win over the team that kept finding ways to lose. Sadly, I don’t see that changing much for Jacksonville, and the news prime free agent signee Julius Thomas is out until at least Halloween does them no favor.

Dolphins 28, Jaguars 10

- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): Eagles fans, not to mention Cowboys faithful, are questioning Chip Kelly’s sanity for his usage of his stable of running backs…

 

Kelly likes to demonstrate how smart he is, but sometimes it backfires. That was the case in Atlanta Monday night. I don’t think it will backfire here. Murray will have extra motivation to prove the Cowboys were wrong to let him walk, but I think it will be Darren Sproles who is the real problem for the Dallas defense. The Cowboys are going to sorely miss Dez Bryant in this one. The Eagles proved quite vulnerable to a legit No. 1 wideout in Julio Jones, but without the offensive catalyst in Bryant the Cowboys don’t have anything close to that kind of weapon.

Aside from those matchups, I just don’t see Dallas being 2-0 or Philadelphia being 0-2. Sometimes the picks boil down to things like that…

Eagles 34, Cowboys 21 

- Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5): Packers fans are still bitter about the 2012 meeting decided by a controversial (read: terrible) call. They’re still frustrated by the epic, coaching-fueled collapse in the NFC Championship game last January. They desperately want their beloved to seize the mantle of “team to beat”. They also want to get a big leg up on playoff home field advantage, and burying the Seahawks two full games and a tiebreaker behind them here would go a long way towards establishing it.

Seattle has won the last three meetings, but those were all in CenturyLink Field, or whatever it might have been called over the years. The last two times the Seahawks have visited Wisconsin, they’ve been destroyed by a combined score of 90-30. Granted those were very different teams, but there is something real about the Lambeau Field mystique. Seattle’s lousy offensive line will be a problem here, just as it was last week. Enjoy the redemption, Cheeseheads.

Packers 20, Seahawks 13

Monday Night

- New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5): Okay, here’s the deal. I have a self-imposed deadline of noon Thursday to have this column done. It’s 11:47 AM. It also happens to be my birthday and I’m tired of taxing my mind and doing research as I celebrate the 43rd anniversary of my birth. Colts roll as Andrew Luck bounces back from a bad opener, taking advantage of the Jets missing Antonio Cromartie. Short but sweet.

Colts 27, Jets 20