2014 Record: 9-7, second in AFC West

Current +/- wins per LV Hilton: 8.5

Overall: 2015 marks Andy Reid’s third season as the head coach of the Chiefs. Despite a 20-12 record, Reid’s Chiefs have yet to taste a postseason victory. Will the third time be a charm?

The pieces are certainly in place. A talented defense returns almost intact, and could actually get better with a healthy return from both Derrick Johnson and Eric Berry. Justin Houston is a nightmare for opposing QBs, while the secondary is one of the more underrated in the league.

Offensively, Jamaal Charles is a top-shelf running back. In fact, he might actually be too skilled for his own good. Kansas City’s reliance on Charles to do so much of the offensive legwork often detracted from the passing game. QB Alex Smith was fantastic at protecting the ball but couldn’t produce a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver. That has to change if these Chiefs, who also sport one of the most consistent special teams units, are to sate the playoff win drought. 

Five Questions

1. What is going on with Eric Fisher?

The Chiefs surprised many when they used the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft on Eric Fisher. The Central Michigan offensive tackle was certainly talented, but there were questions about his level of competition and killer mentality.

Fisher is a case of hype run amok. In the first two days of Senior Bowl practices in Mobile that January, Fisher was an unquestioned star. In the one-on-one pass rush drills, he handily deflected all comers. All of the sudden, a guy widely seen in the 15-25 overall range was suddenly thrust to the top of draft boards. The Chiefs were sold.

Two years later, buyer’s remorse has to be setting in. Fisher has ranked 70th out of 76 and 72nd out of 84 tackles in his first two seasons as Kansas City’s left tackle according to Pro Football Focus. He has struggled with power, at least partially the result of a shoulder injury that just hasn’t healed. He has struggled with sustaining blocks, in part because his punch isn’t quick enough and he loses the initial leverage battle.

Now the Chiefs have made the decision to move him to the right side. The spin is that Donald Stephenson is just plain better at left tackle, and to be fair the third-round pick in 2012 did look decent in preseason. The rub is that lacking power is even more of a problem on the right side, where most defenses align their stronger end. Fisher’s run blocking has been decent enough, and that does help make the move make more sense.

This is a big year for Fisher. If he can establish himself as a quality right tackle, both he and the Chiefs will save a lot of face. While it’s not the optimal outcome for a top overall pick, earning a second contract and being a decent starter avoids the dreaded “bust” label that is already starting to get thrown around. It’s too early for that fateful moniker, but it’s getting late enough for Fisher he must do something quickly to prove it’s not an apt moniker.

Given the team is starting a rookie at center, they can’t afford any issues with the tackles. After all, that center is Mitch Morse…a tackle at Missouri last year before being a somewhat shocking second-round pick. Most pundits and evaluators expected his draft stock somewhere in the 100-150 overall range, not 49th overall. Another potential overreach on an offensive linemen is the last thing the Chiefs can afford. Morse would make four, along with Stephenson, Fisher and right guard Jeff Allen, who has grossly underwhelmed as a second-round pick in 2012. The Chiefs must get better return from the rather significant draft investment up front.

2. Will Eric Berry make it all the way back?

Eric Berry is one of the most popular players in the entire NFL, not to mention one of the most talented safeties in the game. He was already a favorite with both fans and peers on opposing teams, who appreciated his joie de vivre and fiercely competitive but fair spirit.

When Berry announced last November he was suffering from Hodgkins’s lymphoma, a form of cancer, it rocked the NFL. Here was an All-Pro taken off the field by an unforeseen serious medical issue.

Thankfully Berry was pronounced cancer free in June. He fought off the disease successfully. He quickly got back to the field and is trying to work his way back into his old form. The Chiefs really need him to get back to as much of his old self as quickly as possible. While Ron Parker proved okay in coverage, he is not anywhere to the all-around force the healthy Berry provided on the back end.

One of the ways Kansas City missed Berry was in his ability to create takeaways. While his own production--3 INTs, 2 FF, 2 FR--in 2013 isn’t outlandish, his ability to patrol the middle and cover so much of the field allowed the rest of the defense to be more aggressive. His presence helps others take more chances. In 2013, the Chiefs finished 2nd in the league with 36 takeaways. Last year, with Berry sidelined most of the campaign, the Chiefs finished 31st with just 14. That’s not all on Berry, but he’s the one guy who can the most about restoring a positive ranking.

It’s an unknown how effective Berry will be in his comeback. In preseason he looked a step late and less apt to lower the boom. Maybe he was preserving his body for games that matter. The emotional lift provided by his return should be fantastic, a rallying point for a team that already has something to prove. But the harsh truth is that if Berry isn’t close to his old self between the sidelines, it really won’t mean so much. 

3. Who catches touchdowns?

You might have heard by now the sordid fact: the Chiefs' wide receivers failed to catch a single touchdown pass in 2014.

The good news is that it is essentially impossible to replicate that dubious feat. At some point a safety will fall down in pursuit or a red zone pass ricochets off a tight end to a waiting wideout. The drought will be broken.

The bad news? Even with the influx of talent at wideout, this team still figures to rank near the bottom in wideout paydirt. Jeremy Maclin is definitely an upgrade over Dwayne Bowe as the top dog. Maclin is faster, he’s better at running routes and he tracks the ball in the air better. He caught 10 TDs last year in Philadelphia, but he accomplished that on 143 targets. Bowe led the Chiefs with just 95…and that’s why the Chiefs wideouts don’t figure to catch many TDs: Alex Smith just doesn’t throw to them.

A lot of this has to do with Andy Reid’s offense. Smith is asked to not make the big mistake, and the veteran has embraced that mantra the way ducklings take to water. Smith will not force the ball down the field if he feels there is a safer option underneath. And with talented Travis Kelce at tight end and Jamaal Charles a sweet target out of the backfield, Smith isn’t apt to change his ultra-conservative ways.

Maclin will lead the team in targets and it’s a fair wager he’ll hit at least five TDs. Just like last year, Kelce will finish second in targets but first in TDs and receptions. He had 67 receptions on 87 targets and found the end zone five times. Charles also posted five receiving TDs.

I think both will score more receiving TDs, and that’s where Maclin’s arrival really makes impact. These Chiefs figure to get more sustained drives but also pick up bigger chunks of yards on those drives, setting up more red zone chances. If the Chiefs get anything out of sprinter/wideout Chris Conley as a third-round rookie, those bigger chunks figure to come a little more frequently.

Last year the wideout with the second-most targets was Albert Wilson. He saw 28 balls thrown his way. Technically DeAnthony Thomas might count with his 32, but he’ll always be a running back to me. Wilson was trumpeted by many Chiefs watchers as having a fantastic offseason, so his role could expand.

It is still incumbent upon Smith to look to take more shots. When blessed with the second-best scoring defense in the league, it affords the offense the ability to try a little harder to push the envelope. The shaky offensive line makes that a little more complicated, however. 

4. Is there depth on defense?

If you’ve read some of my other previews this year, you’re probably thinking I’m about to go off on the anemic depth here, nitpicking about backup linebackers and humdrum defensive ends. You would be wrong.

I really like this defense. If Berry is back (see above), this unit could very well lead the league in scoring defense and opposing yards per play (they were 5th last year). They’re solid at all three levels but also feature dynamic performers at key spots.

Justin Houston is in the short argument for best edge rusher in the league, spearheading a pass rush which finished third in the league in sack percentage. Houston bagged an incredible 22 sacks to lead the league. Tamba Hali is a solid complementary outside backer. He finished with just 6 sacks last year but still made his fourth Pro Bowl in a row. Hali netted 32 sacks in the prior three seasons. If they get anything from 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford--and they might not--they can keep the starters fresher.

Getting Derrick Johnson back at inside backer should make a very positive impact. He was lost in the opener last year, registering but four tackles.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Maybe the best thing to happen to the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chiefs?src=hash">#Chiefs</a> this year (outside of Berry&#39;s recovery) is the return of a healthy Derrick Johnson</p>&mdash; Matt Stagner (@stagdsp) <a href="https://twitter.com/stagdsp/status/638012026653020160">August 30, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The veteran has long been one of the best all-around inside backers in the league. His return takes a lot of pressure off Josh Mauga, a limited role player who simply had too much on his plate without Johnson next to him. Mauga has to tackle better. The Chiefs attempted to add depth in the draft here with fourth-rounder Ramik Wilson and fifth-rounder D.J. Alexander, though this is unquestionably the thinnest spot. I was not a Wilson fan at Georgia, finding him to be too limited athletically. Alexander was a surprise pick, as most expected him to go undrafted. Packers castoff Dezman Moses did impress in preseason though he’s more of an outside backer.

Dontari Poe has been a personal favorite since I scouted him at Memphis. The big man in the middle has been battling a back injury but has resumed practicing in time to start in the opener. He’s the most active nose tackle in the league, a penetrating force. Offenses will take advantage of his propensity for getting up the field so quickly by running a lot of draws behind him, but he’s a dangerous force in the middle. Signing Jaye Howard as Poe’s backup has proven a smart move, as the former Seahawk is good enough to start. Ends Mike DeVito and Allen Bailey contrast one another nicely, and beefy rookie Rakeem Nunez-Roches brings some heft to the depth chart as well.

The corner depth will be tested early as top dog Sean Smith sits out the first three games. He’s quietly one of the most effective cover men in the league. Fortunately for KC, Marcus Peters somehow fell to them in the first round. The Washington corner was handily the stickiest man coverage guy in the draft, but off-field questions kept him from going higher. Peters is an NFL-ready starter and was a trendy pick for Defensive Rookie of the Year. It would not surprise me. I also like second-year corner Phillip Gaines, who had some positive moments as a rookie. Marcus Cooper flashed playmaking skills as a rookie in 2013 but didn’t play so well in his second year; his jury is still out.

You’re probably asking yourself what exactly is the question here, so here it is: What if the appearances I see are deceiving? We’ll find that one out together, folks…

5. What am I missing here?

This Kansas City team is one of the most known commodities in an unpredictable league. We know they’re going to run the ball well with Jamaal Charles, and there’s potential with the depth behind him too. We know Alex Smith will be the consummate game manager, refusing to make the mistake which costs his team a win. We know the receiving corps got better with Jeremy Maclin replacing Dwayne Bowe and with the continued progress of tight end Travis Kelce.

We know Justin Houston is going to challenge for the league lead in sacks. We know the pass defense will be above average. We know the punting and kicking games will be above average. We know Andy Reid as a head coach and his style, and we know it works with the roster at his hands.

So why does it seem nobody outside of the KC metro area gives this Chiefs team more of a chance in the AFC than Bobby Jindal has at winning the GOP Presidential nomination?

Is it the shadow of Peyton Manning and the Broncos, an admittedly large cloud over their head?

Could it be the last time we saw them in the playoffs, the epic collapse to Andrew Luck and the Colts following the 2013 season?

Perhaps it’s the lingering doubts on Alex Smith, a former No. 1 overall pick who has never bubbled up higher than about 12th overall in the quarterbacking pantheon. I guess it could be an overreaction to the paucity of passing targets to the wideouts, even though Smith did finish with an impressive 3/1 TD/INT ratio and the Chiefs offense was dead on the league average in scoring.

I suppose it could be geographical bias. Kansas City is one of the smallest NFL markets and it’s also one of the most isolated in the heart of flyover country. It’s not really on the way to anywhere from anywhere, not unless you prefer a 12-hour drive to a 2-hour flight.

There is some unseen force keeping more folks from believing in this team. I’m not sure it’s even real. Then again, if I don’t see it or know what it is, perhaps I’m the blind fool.

Forecast: The schedule might be a reason why folks aren’t ready to believe in these Chiefs. Four of the first six are on the road, including trips to returning playoff teams in Green Bay and Cincinnati. As long as Smith & Co. can survive the taxing early schedule, they have a real chance to get hot late. After a Week 9 bye, they travel to Denver and San Diego. That’s a rough patch for sure, but coming off a bye there (after playing a tough Detroit team in London) is the best-case scenario. After that, KC should be favored in every game except the trip to Baltimore the week before Christmas.

I know it’s not a popular take, but I think these Chiefs will win the AFC West. I’ll stand by that even if the Broncos don’t falter near as much as I anticipate (I have them 8-8). I’m not sure they can win a playoff game, but I will be surprised if they don’t get a crack at it. Kansas City finishes 10-6.