The Summer of Discontent is finally over. Even without meaningful games, the NFL managed to stay forefront in not only the sports section but also the national news for all the wrong reasons. Concussions. Deflated balls and inept prosecution over how that and the ensuing punishment were handled. Two players blowing body parts off in fireworks accidents. Cries of institutional racism. Several prominent injuries.

Nobody is happier to see the regular season finally arrive than the NFL itself. For one weekend, the focus should all be positive. The euphoric buzz of our true national pastime cleanses the bitterness of a truly terrible offseason away, if but for a few brief days.

It’s wonderful to get back to forecasting games. Last year the clouds parted more than they rained on my predictions, finishing a personal-best 162-93-1 in the regular season. The bar for this year is 166-90.

Unlike past seasons, I’m forgoing the gambling component to the forecasts. It got tedious to keep track, and as many actual gamblers pointed out, I was willfully ignoring the juice and the parlay options which make the reality of wagering on sports both more dangerous and potentially rewarding. I’ll still keep track of my picks both straight up and against the spread, but I won’t wager any mythical units this year.

The first week tends to be one of the most difficult forecasts. Strange things tend to happen more in these opening games than later on, once we all have a better idea of what the teams really look like in the regular season.

Thursday Night

- Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-3.5): I’m tempted to take the popular route here and pontificate on Tom Brady, Deflategate and the widely anticipated Bill Belichick pregame speech quoting Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction…

"And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon thee."

Even without that extra (real or imagined) motivation, I really like the Patriots to prevail at home. Pittsburgh’s defense has the potential to be historically bad this year. The best playmaker on the unit is twice-retired James Harrison. Cameron Heyward up front is a very good player, but he just doesn’t have much help. Perhaps Ryan Shazier steps up after an injury-plagued rookie season, but I’ll need to see it before I believe it.

Brady lacks great weaponry, but what else is new? I think he’ll come out sharp and dissect the porous Pittsburgh defense for 347 yards and 4 TDs, and we all get the enjoyable sideshow of a Gronk TD celebration or two. The Steelers are going to put up a lot of points, but they’re going to miss suspended star RB LeVeon Bell a lot more than anticipated in this one.

Patriots 38, Steelers 30

Sunday Best

- Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-4.5): The only game on the Sunday slate featuring two returning playoff combatants sees Baltimore traveling to Denver.

The underrated component in this game, and perhaps the entire league this season, is Denver’s strong defense. I like how they match up against Baltimore’s offense, which is reliant on big plays from Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett. I suspect the Ravens will land a couple of haymakers but it will only temporarily stun the Broncos, not knocking them to the turf. I do think this game will illustrate why Broncos RB C.J. Anderson is wildly overrated by fantasy football gurus, but Peyton Manning will find enough success against Baltimore’s iffy secondary to carry the home team to a win.

Broncos 26, Ravens 21 

Sunday Rest

- Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3.5): The Rams are not a good overall team but they do have a dominant defensive line. Seattle is a great team with one glaring weakness, the offensive line. Bad matchup for the better team. I think the Rams can ride that to an upset win at home in an early start for the Seahawks…as long as Aaron Donald and his DL friends can contain Russell Wilson. Getting pressure is great but no QB is more dangerous when the opposing team gets close but no cigar on the pass rush than @DangeRussWilson.

Rams 22, Seahawks 20

- Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (+2.5): Buffalo will certainly be a tough place for Andrew Luck & Co to start out as the Rex Ryan era kicks off on the eastern shores of Lake Erie. Ryan inherited a team with a talented, physical defense that can disrupt the precision and put all sorts of pressure on Luck.

The Colts have vulnerability on defense, but I’m not sure Tyrod Taylor making his starting debut will be able to keep pace with the loaded Colts passing game. Indy catches a break with LeSean McCoy being iffy with a bum hamstring, which could force Ryan’s beloved “ground and pound” into dog food. Putting so much on Taylor’s inexperienced plate spells trouble for the home team.

Colts 24, Bills 20

- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+5.5): This is one of the NFL’s best rivalries, but these two teams are moving in opposite directions. The Packers are a legitimate Super Bowl favorite even with Jordy Nelson’s loss. The Bears were the last place team in the NFC North last year. This year they appear to be gunning for last place in the entire league in the first year for the new management regime of GM Ryan Pace and John Fox. Chicago has injury issues at wideout and an offensive line which is still shuffling bodies on the season’s eve. This one could be very ugly. Green Bay has won nine of the last 10 meetings. Make it 10 of 11.

Packers 37, Bears 13

- Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3.5): Cleveland hasn’t won in Week 1 since 2004, which in Browns QB tenure years is 168 years. The Browns might have the weakest set of offensive skill position players in the league, while the Jets’ revamped secondary might be the best in the league. Cleveland’s own defense will be strong, but if they are to break the dubious losing string that defense is going to have to put some points of its own on the board. It could happen with sporadically awful Ryan Fitzpatrick at the New York controls, but it’s hard to bet on that.

Jets 13, Browns 9

- Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1): Frequent readers know I’m a harsh critic of new Texans QB Brian Hoyer, but I give him credit for always starting off a season strongly before tailing off to wondering how he even started in college. The Chiefs defense looks really good, but I think the home defense feeds off the return of Jadeveon Clowney. The first pick in the 2014 NFL Draft will be on a mission to prove he deserved that status after a rookie season washed asunder by injury. Kansas City has its own No. 1 overall pick with a lot to prove in Eric Fisher, who was “demoted” to playing right tackle after just not cutting it on the left side. In that individual battle, gimmie Clowney all day long.

Texans 20, Chiefs 17

- Miami Dolphins at Washington (+2.5): As I live in his hometown of Holland, Michigan and frequently play basketball with many mutual acquaintances, I am strictly forbidden from saying anything negative about Washington QB Kirk Cousins. If you can’t say anything nice, well…this is the sound…of silence.

"Fools," said I, "You do not know.
Silence like a cancer grows.
Hear my words that I might teach you.
Take my arms that I might reach you."
But my words like silent raindrops fell
And echoed in the wells of silence

That is one of the greatest songs ever written. It still holds up fantastically, including a recent rocking cover by Boba Flex. Speaking of flex, Ndamukong Suh and the fearsome Miami defensive front will flex their considerable muscle and make life tough for Cousins and what might be the slowest RB group in the 2000’s. Washington’s defense is better than advertised, but not good enough to break the silence.

Dolphins 19, Ethnic Slurs 6

- Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5): I can’t explain it but my gut strongly favors Jacksonville to win at home. They’re not the better team but the better team doesn’t always win. The feeling was quite strong here and I’m not going to fight it.

Jaguars 20, Panthers 17

- Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-2.5): I don’t normally like to place too much emphasis on the absence of one player making a huge difference in a game, but Detroit’s excellent LB DeAndre Levy is going to miss the opener (at minimum) with a mysterious hip injury. Not only is Levy the best cover LB and rangiest run support LB in the league, he’s the only Lions LB who is capable of either task. That’s a very real problem against a San Diego offense which features elusive Danny Woodhead, who catches the ball well and gets a lot of looks in open space in the Chargers’ scheme. Now if Ladarius Green can’t go at TE for San Diego, already missing the suspended Antonio Gates, that levels off the loss.

This game will be all about Detroit’s offense. Last year the Chargers couldn’t rush the passer at all, and top sack man Dwight Freeney remains on the unemployment line. Their defensive depth is perilous. Detroit has weapons galore with Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and dynamic rookie RB Ameer Abdullah. If Matthew Stafford plays smartly, the Lions should put up enough points to pull off the road upset. Should. As I noted on the podcast for Lions Central Radio this week, I think a defensive TD by Detroit (how about a Glover Quin pick-six?) provides the winning margin

Lions 26, Chargers 20

- New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2): As is the case with the Lions and Levy, I think the Saints missing injured stud safety Jairus Byrd is a huge deciding factor. They just don’t have the depth or range at defensive back to handle John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald without him. And unlike Detroit in San Diego, I don’t see the Saints offense finding as much success as needed against an Arizona defense which lost superb coordinator Todd Bowles but still packs a real punch. It’s not often I’ll bet against Drew Brees in what looks like a shootout, but I’ll take a rejuvenated Carson Palmer at home.

Cardinals 30, Saints 27

- Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (+3.5): I don’t always like to put much stock into superficial motivational factors, but there’s one in this game which I do buy wholeheartedly. Bengals Offensive Coordinator Hue Jackson got a raw deal in his time as Oakland’s head coach, and this is his first visit back. Jackson is beloved by his players, and I like that Cincinnati isn’t trying to reel it in either…

 

These Raiders are going to be better in 2015. Unfortunately for the Black Hole, the well-rounded Bengals are a tough opening draw. Andy Dalton and the offense typically fare quite well against teams who haven’t seen them in person in a while, and Jeremy Hill is poised for a big game at running back. Like 24 carries, 129 yards and two TDs big game.

Bengals 27, Raiders 15

- Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5): This game is being billed by just about everyone as Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota. The first two picks in the 2015 NFL Draft will certainly draw attention to what is otherwise a dog of a game, but the matchup I’m watching here is the coaching battle. Tennessee’s Ken Whisenhunt has lost 90% of his last 28 games. Tampa Bay’s Lovie Smith is coming off a 2-14 debut for the Bucs in a season where he was frequently outcoached by random inanimate objects. Seeing which embattled coach screws things up worse ought to be entertaining television. Smith’s team has more top-end talent, and I like Winston at home more than Mariota on the road. I see a big week for Bucs RB Doug Martin, who looked in preseason very much like the Muscle Hamster who set the league on fire as a rookie before injuries derailed his career.

Buccaneers 28, Titans 17

- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): New York couldn’t ask for a worse opponent to face in the opener. Their defense is already injury-ravaged enough that Brandon Meriweather--perhaps the least disciplined player in the league both in coverage and mental control-- will see action at safety. Their offensive tackle situation might be the worst in the league. They even had to trade for arguably the worst punter in the league in Brad Wing in hopes of shoring up the special teams.

That circus of sad clowns heads to Jerry World, where Jason Pierre Paul and his missing finger can watch Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and the best OL in the league light up the massive HD scoreboard. I do think Eli Manning will find some success in the Giants’ smart, quick-paced offense, but he’ll miss having dynamic Victor Cruz. Dallas has some iffy pieces in the secondary, but the pass rush and New York’s spotty running game will allow them to get by here.

Cowboys 31, Giants 24

Monday Night

- Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+1): Philadelphia has two major holes on the team. Their secondary gives up too many big plays and they turn the ball over way too frequently. Atlanta has the ability to capitalize on both. Seriously.

I think the Falcons secondary is one of the more underrated positional units in the league. Desmond Trufant is a rising star at corner. Robert Alford is not chopped liver across from him, and they upgraded the slot with Phillip Adams. The safety tandem of William Moore and Ricardo Allen should be good at attacking the ball. They even have some depth with impressive rookie Jalen Collins. I think they’ll pose problems for Sam Bradford and his watered-down cast of wideouts.

On the other side of the ball, I’m worried about Philly’s ability to handle Matt Ryan throwing to a healthy combo of Julio Jones and Roddy White. Atlanta likely won’t be able to run well, but in this case I think that actually helps them. Philly has a more talented group in the secondary than the abysmal one a year ago, but it takes time to develop chemistry and replacing just about everyone on the back end makes that chemistry experiment volatile in the early going.

Falcons 24, Eagles 21

- Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): The second Monday Night Football game always brings back happy memories for me. The NFL expanded to a second game on opening Monday seven seasons ago. I know this off the top of my head because my daughter Elizabeth was born that very day. As I lay in the hospital room on the most uncomfortable cot ever created, my wife and I enjoyed a little football between the Broncos and Raiders while our little newborn princess snoozed on our chests. That was one of the greatest days of my life, a cherished moment which also shows how integral football is to our family.

This year I’ll watch this game sprawled out on my basement couch, my now-7-year-old Lizzie safely tucked in her bed dreaming of My Little Pony and activities which scare the hell out of me like jumping with her scooter and doing flips off the side of the pool. I’ll almost assuredly fall asleep before halftime. When I awaken as the local news signs off postgame, I’ll check out my ever-present Galaxy Note 4 and discover the 49ers held onto the two early Colin Kaepernick TDs to beat the mistake-prone Vikings, smothering Adrian Peterson to just 77 yards on 23 carries in his return. I’ll give my little angel a soft kiss on the forehead before I trip over the cat and twist my ankle climbing the stairs to get to bed. Precious memories!

49ers 20, Vikings 13