2014 Record: 10-6, lost in AFC Divisional round

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 9.5

Overall: Some teams rise up and down in the standings as veterans enter and then exit their peaks and roster turnovers forces big changes. The Baltimore Ravens appear immune from this fluctuation disease. They are one of the most consistent winners in sports. Their last losing record came in 2007, and they’ve made the postseason in seven of the last nine years.

John Harbaugh has done a masterful job of preserving the long legacy of Baltimore. He’s never had a losing record as head coach despite numerous coordinator changes. The defense remains both skilled and incredibly physical. The offense always seems to post more points than opposing fans think they will. The special teams, Harbaugh’s baby and background, are always dangerous. Even as prominent names come and go, the Ravens keep on winning.

Last year’s team finished third in the AFC North but wound up advancing the furthest of the three divisional postseason qualifiers. They were five minutes away from beating the eventual champion New England in the Divisional Round. Joe Flacco takes a lot of flak but few quarterbacks are more successful in pressure situations. Justin Forsett emerged from being a journeyman into one of the most productive RBs in the league, and adding Steve Smith brought a new edge to the passing game. The offensive line, led by standout guard Marshall Yanda, is strong. The defensive line, even sans Haloti Ngata, looks very formidable. They can bring serious pressure from the outside backers and snuff out the run with the inside backers.

This is one of the most well-conceived and well-coached teams in the league every year. The talent is in place for another playoff run. Can they get back to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy once again?

Five Questions

1. How will the offense perform under Marc Trestman?

Baltimore is now on its third Offensive Coordinator in as many seasons. Jim Caldwell left after the 2013 campaign to take over the Lions. Gary Kubiak took his place, then fed to Denver to take that head coaching gig after one year. Now Marc Trestman will craft the offense.

Trestman flopped miserably as the Bears’ head man.

There are distinct stylistic deviations between what Trestman has run in his offenses and what his Ravens predecessors have installed. When Caldwell took over midseason from Cam Cameron in 2012 and into 2013, it was about “pace and space”, playing at a more consistent, faster tempo and widening the receiver alignments and route combinations a bit to create more space. Kubiak brought in the Mike Shanahan blocking scheme and short-short-long passing windows, with a stark case of conservatism and predictability that relied on players to execute more than scheming them to success.

Trestman has a very diverse background. He made his name initially creating an offense around Bernie Kosar’s peculiar set of skills in Cleveland in the late 80s. Before taking the Chicago job, he coached for years in the CFL, with stops along the way working with great QBs. It’s hard to glean a lot meaningful from what he had in Chicago, because those Bears units are wildly different from what he’ll have here. One general trademark of Trestman’s offenses is heavy usage of the tight ends and running backs in the passing game, and not as outlets but rather primary weapons. His playbook has been thick with plays where the design is to free up the tight end on a clearout, or a wheel route to the runner out of the backfield. It’s a system where he’s leaned heavily on having smart quarterbacks who make quick reads and throw with expert timing.

Joe Flacco is many things as a quarterback. Strong armed. Gutsy. Confident. Fearless. You go through a litany of adjectives before you get to “smart”. Making quick decisions isn’t exactly his forte, either. Speaking of forte, the Ravens don’t have Matt Forte out of the backfield either. Forte caught almost 200 passes in the last two years, more than 50 more than the Ravens RBs combined. Justin Forsett is a skilled all-around back, but he’s not used to that sort of workload.

It will be interesting to see how Trestman tailors his offensive scheme to Flacco, Forsett, Steve Smith and not a lot else in the arsenal. There are some exciting young weapons (more on them in a bit), but they’re unknown commodities. Having a great interior offensive line will help facilitate a lot of success, and having strong leadership presences in Smith and Flacco (in their own ways) should help quell some of the issues Trestman faced in Chicago. Hopefully the new OC doesn’t harness the caution-to-the-wind downfield shots that Flacco does as well as anyone and try to bleed out the defense with papercuts. This is an offense with a machete and Trestman needs to recognize it. He’s one of the smartest football minds I’ve ever encountered, so my confidence level is high.

2. What to expect from the rookies?

Ozzie Newsome is one of the sharpest talent evaluators in the business. While he does have some misses--like everyone does--few general managers do a better job at finding the right fits for what his team needs. This year’s rookie class appears to be no exception, though it might require some patience from Ravens fans.

(thanks to DraftHistory.com)

None of the rookies are projected starters, but Baltimore could see considerable contributions from several here. All but Myers made the final 53, and the small-school project was quickly scooped up and made the Colts.

The first two picks should play a big role in the passing offense going forward, though the rookie stats are likely to underwhelm. Perriman is a fantastic downfield threat, an athletic metrics freak oozing with big-play potential. He’s battled injuries over the summer that have slowed his progress; he might not see the field before October. That creates more opportunities for Williams, the nifty, sticky-handed tight end from Minnesota. He started out slow in camp but looked much more fluid and comfortable at the end of preseason. He and last year’s fourth-rounder, Crockett Gillmore, complement one another nicely at tight end. As noted above, Trestman’s offenses have long leaned on tight ends catching lots of passes. Fifth-rounder Nick Boyle made the roster as the third tight end, and it’s conceivable he catches 20 passes as a rookie in Trestman’s “come one, come all” scheme.

Davis could play a big role as the primary interior defensive reserve. He’ll back up Brandon Williams but also see some action next to the nose tackle. Inconsistent in college, Davis has all the physical traits to be a very effective line anchor if his fire stays lit. In Baltimore, that is seldom an issue. He’ll see considerable action keeping Williams and Timmy Jernigan fresh. Smith fits perfectly as the heavy-side edge presence, be it with a hand in the dirt or aligned as an outside backer. The Kentucky product isn’t a dynamic athlete but he’s fundamentally sound and can both set and take the edge against both the run and pass.

“Buck” Allen made it as the third RB, though he’ll be the primary backup early on as Lorenzo Taliaferro (another rookie last year) could be sidelined a few weeks. His hard-charging running style nicely blends with Forsett’s speedy shiftiness. Walker and Waller are both developmental projects but showed enough to earn roles already, ahead of schedule. Waller’s great size (6’6”, 240) allows him to back up both tight end and wideout, though he moves much more like a tight end with the blocking of a wide receiver.

This class might not show up a lot on the stat sheet in 2015, but Newsome scored a very impressive draft haul here. The overall depth is upgraded with several potential future starters who have roles they can contribute in right away. Yet another reason why these Ravens are perennial contenders and never fall into rebuild mode.

3. Will the secondary hold up?

Baltimore is generally a deep team, but the defensive backfield is a notable exception. It was already the soft spot on the defense, and now the secondary looks like it could be a real liability.

Jimmy Smith is the bright spot, a savvy and physical cover corner who has steadily progressed with his consistency and route anticipation. Smith doesn’t get beat deep, period. He’s also an asset in the run game.

The rest of the secondary brings questions. Lardarius Webb has been better in reputation than in reality for a few seasons now, and he’s missed major preseason time once again. If he ever gets back to 100% health he’s a worthy starter, but that has not been the case since about 2011. The problem here is exacerbated by a lack of anyone who can challenge Webb. Rashaan Melvin had some moments late in the year before Tom Brady picked on him mercilessly in the playoff loss to New England. His lack of lateral agility and quickness out of breaks is a real problem against smaller or quicker wideouts. Pats castoff Kyle Arrington and small-school rookie Tray Walker round out the corner cast. That’s not exactly an inspiring group, though if Melvin and Walker click early it should be good enough most weeks. Big “if”…

Matt Elam has become one of Newsome’s bigger draft errors. He hasn’t played well in his two years since being the 32nd overall pick, missing too many tackles and consistently being a step (at least) late in coverage. He’s on IR for 2015. That means Kendrick Lewis needs to prove the Texans made a mistake in letting him go. Lewis is what he is, inconsistent but capable of being quite good when he’s “on”. Like Elam he runs past too many tackles but he should be better in coverage. His length and ability to actually turn his neck while moving are both assets Elam lacked.

Fortunately Will Hill has emerged as a solid presence at safety. Hill is a thumper with a high football IQ. Keeping him on the straight and narrow is the hard part; he missed the first six games last year on suspension for substance abuse, and his off-field issues have created problems dating back to his college days at Florida. If his newfound maturity sticks, Hill is a nice asset.

Unfortunately the depth behind Lewis and Hill is scant. Terrence Brooks tore up his knee in December and his availability is in question, as is his effectiveness upon return. Anthony Levine and Brynden Trawick are practice squad refugees who probably shouldn’t play much other than special teams. This is a painfully thin unit and it’s already the biggest potential problem area.

4. How good can the defensive front really be?

Even though they’ve lost stalwart tackle Haloti Ngata, the front seven of Baltimore’s defense remains loaded with talent. Newsome & Co. prepared for the day when Ngata would depart by drafting Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan in back-to-back years and also selecting Carl Davis in this year’s draft. None are the interior pass rushing force the departed veteran was, but all offer real positive assets.

Williams has been a real find as a nose tackle. He is the immovable object in the middle of the defense, adept at tying up blockers and then quickly slapping hands away to burst to the ball carrier. When he gets a paw on the runner, the run is over. Pro Football Focus graded him as the 4th-best run defender of all DTs. Jernigan plays end but he’s also built like a nose tackle at a beefy, compact 302 pounds. The 2014 second-round pick from Florida State wins with his initial quickness off the line, following it with brute power and a keen nose for the ball. He’ll have to play more snaps with Ngata gone, but he should still manage to be an impact player.

I covered Davis above a bit. He is more of a long-term player, behind veteran Chris Canty at the other end spot and Williams at the nose. Lawrence Guy had some effective reps in a limited reserve role a year ago. Brent Urban missed his entire rookie campaign, and he wound up on IR/Designated to Return once again. That opens the door for Kapron Lewis-Moore and Christo Bilukidi to earn rotational reps. I was higher than most draft pundits on both, though their NFL experience is limited.

Terrell Suggs remains one of the preeminent pass rushers in the league. In his last four full seasons, the burly outside backer has hit double-digit sacks, including 12 last year. As skilled and strong as he is on the edge, T-Sizzle is also one of the most difficult and mentally exhausting opponents for those trying to block him. Suggs is intimidating. He’s cocky. He talks trash with the best of ‘em. It’s a highly effective tactic that helps set the tone for the entire defense.

Rather than talk about Daryl Smith, I’ll let my friend Turron Davenport of the Baltimore Times show you his value…

 

The stat included there, of not allowing a 100-yard rusher in 29 games, says so much about how well Smith and C.J. Mosley patrol the entire field. Their toughness frees up Elvis Dumervil to be a pass-rush specialist as an outside backer, where he is fabulous. His 17 sacks reflect his single-minded role. Mosley is a rising star after a stellar rookie season; he’s in line for All-Pro status if he builds upon that, and there is no reason to think he won’t. With Courtney Upshaw and rookie Zadarius Smith looking solid as the closed-end, more run-conscious outside backers, the unit has depth with upside. Even though Arthur Brown has not lived up to second-round expectations, he finally appears healthy and ready to spell one of the interior starters if needed.

This defensive front is the strength of the team, the heart of the continued success in Baltimore. They are highly skilled, deep and versatile, capable of carrying the entire team if they have to.

5. What are some hidden potential potholes?

I’ve used this question with a few other teams, and invariably special teams comes up. That’s not the case with Baltimore, where Justin Tucker is among the most reliable kickers and Sam Koch is an above-average punter. Then again…

- They’re breaking in a new return man in Michael Campanaro, who doubles as the primary slot receiver. They don’t really have anyone who can fill either role but him, and Campanaro missed time for all sorts of maladies in college and played just four games as a rookie. He’s slightly built and has never really learned to protect himself from the kill shot.

- The reserves on the interior of the offensive line should be okay, but if LT Eugene Monroe or RT Ricky Wagner gets hurt it’s a real problem. James Hurst is the only reserve tackle and he was terrifyingly inept in limited duty last year as an undrafted rookie.

- Flacco’s occasional lapses in mental focus can be tough for teammates to cope with, and nobody is a more volatile personality than wideout Steve Smith. They had hit-and-miss chemistry a year ago, and Smith is desperate in his quest to win a Super Bowl in his final year. If he feels like Flacco--or anyone else for that matter--is weighing him down, he will not be afraid to let them know. That can be an unnecessary headache for Coach Harbaugh.

- Takeaways. Only five teams recorded fewer takeaways than Baltimore did a year ago, and there really isn’t any new addition to shake up the mix. In 2013 the turnover margin was an unacceptable -5. It’s hard to meet the lofty expectation many--myself included--hold for this team with a negative turnover ratio and struggles to get short fields with takeaways. It’s a bigger issue with the unproven return game.

Forecast: Four of the first six games are on the road, and that’s a real challenge. The first two games are in Denver and Oakland, west coast tilts, and games against all three AFC North foes follow. As long as the Ravens can split that tough early ledger, this team should be in competition for a playoff bye.

That’s right, I’ll jump to the chase. I think this is one of the few teams that can win the next Super Bowl. I really like the Bengals within the division too, but Baltimore is better-equipped to handle the rigors of a playoff run. I suspect they’ll have a couple of clunkers that keep the win total a little lower than the talent level might indicate, and I do worry about how they’ll fare against high-powered passing attacks. Still, this is a very good team. Baltimore finishes 12-4 and will win at least one playoff game. They just might win them all.