2014 Record: 11-5, lost in Wild Card round

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall: 2014 marked the beginning of the Jim Caldwell era in Detroit, and the new head coach proved a much-needed breath of fresh air from the Jim Schwartz regime. Detroit rode a strong overall defense, one which finished second in the league, to an unexpected playoff berth. New Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin’s deceptive, aggressive scheme unleashed Pro Bowl performers at all three levels and created turnovers.

The offense underachieved despite the strong addition of Golden Tate, the first viable running mate at wide receiver for Calvin Johnson in years. The Lions are one of the few teams with two legit No. 1 wideouts but it didn’t matter. Injuries along the offensive line and struggles with schematics under rookie Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi kept productivity down. Still, quarterback Matthew Stafford led several spirited comeback victories and had them one controversial--and incorrectly overruled--penalty away from recording the franchises’ first playoff win in over 20 years.

If these Lions are to secure just the second postseason win in the Super Bowl era (!!), the offense will have to produce more effectively, more frequently. Few teams can match Detroit’s overall depth, and the top-end talent is god enough to win any game they play. Yet this is a franchise which has never been able to sustain success, even as meager as one 11-5 campaign might seem. 

Five Questions

1. Will the new defensive tackles hold up?

Detroit’s strong defense last year was spearheaded by Ndamukong Suh, inarguably one of the best defensive linemen in the game. Despite repeated efforts to secure his services long-term, the Lions waved goodbye to Suh as he opted to allow Miami to pay him over $100M. Fellow starter Nick Fairley is also gone, now part of St. Louis’ scary deep defensive front. Detroit even lost its third tackle in the rotation, as C.J. Mosely joined Suh with the Dolphins.

General Manager Martin Mayhew acted swiftly to patch the sizeable hole in the heart of the defense. He traded for Haloti Ngata from Baltimore. He signed Tyrunn Walker from New Orleans in free agency. He drafted Gabe Wright from Auburn in the fourth round, trading up to do so.

Suh cannot be replaced. In the world of planet theory, Suh is his own galaxy. His loss can be managed, however, and it appears the Lions have done as well as could possibly be expected in doing just that. Ngata earned Pro Bowl berths every year from 2009-13 and is one of the preeminent run stuffers in the league. In fact, Ngata graded higher in run defense than Suh at Pro Football Focus every year but last year. He’s even got experience playing under Austin and Caldwell from their days on Baltimore’s staff. The giant can play the nose or the 3-technique, and he also offers the versatility to line up anywhere in an odd-man front. He’s not going to record the QB pressures or sacks Suh provided, but he’s still good for 4-5 sacks and just as many tackles for loss.

You can tell a lot about who has actually watched the Lions and who is simply talking by their view on Fairley. Real observers know he’s not much of a loss. He was a splash player, for better and for worse; for every play where he quickly destroyed the opposing guard and blew up a play in the backfield, he gave up on a play or was handily blocked well off the point of attack on two plays. He freelanced too much, often destroying the integrity of the carefully choreographed defense. If he’s listed as a “big loss” by someone, stop reading right then and there because you’re being fed ignorant information.

Walker offers more stable play with just as much disruption potential. He flashed his combination of speed and power as the Saints’ third tackle last year, and if preseason is any indication he’s more than ready to ascend as a quality starter.

#Lions DT Tyrunn Walker has started fast in each preseason game. Comes ready to play.

— NFC North Bar Room (@AldoBarkeeper) August 29, 2015

The bigger question lies with the depth at tackle. Jason Jones, who starts at strongside end but frequently shifts inside to tackle, remains on the PUP as preseason nears the end. Caraun Reid, a second-year player who remolded his body to get both quicker and more functionally strong, looked great all summer until getting hurt in the second preseason game. His status for the start of the season is iffy. Rams castoff Jemelle Cudjo will open the season as the third tackle, followed by rookie Wright, who has been shown great energy but little results thus far. Ngata was just activated (today is 8/31) and has yet to practice with his new team. While the Lions defense around the tackles remains formidable (more on that later), there is no question the DT situation could sink the entire unit from elite to merely good. 

2. Can Matthew Stafford take the next step?

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft is a divisive figure. He’s had a season of throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs, in 2011. Last year he led the NFL in comeback wins, with 5. The Georgia product is universally touted for his incredible arm strength, an attribute even his most ardent critics freely admit is one of the best ever.

Then there’s the “buts”…

- No road wins--ever--against teams with winning records

- Lazy mechanics, including sidearm whips and back foot heaves without reason to alter the throwing platform

- Too many INTs, having finished in the top 7 four times in 6 seasons

- Overly reliant on Calvin Johnson

2014 was an interesting year for Stafford in his career arc. Despite being under the heaviest pressure in his career, Stafford raised his completion percentage and lowered his INT percentage. The lazy mechanics largely went away. Stafford’s on-field leadership presence was never stronger, particularly when rallying the team to furious comebacks. The yards and yards per attempt were down, but so were the three-and-outs and overall pass attempts.

His first year in new Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi’s offense was a learning process. Lombardi came from the Saints, and the massive playbook and complex blocking patterns and route combinations. Stafford and the rest of the offensive talent all struggled in the complexity. When the quarterback was more in control, the offense thrived.

And this is where Stafford’s progress is as much about Lombardi as it is the quarterback himself. The OC very much showed he was a rookie. He’s simplified the blocking scheme and given Stafford more input on the playbook and situational play calling. In training camp and preseason, Stafford was incredibly sharp and demonstrated much higher mastery of the playbook. He got married in the offseason and carries himself with a more mature, less “punch my douchebag smugness” aura.

I do regular radio spots on ESPN 96.1 in Grand Rapids, and the show’s host nails it with his take. Sean Baligian always says of Stafford, “He’s good. Not great, not bad. But he needs to be better.” Baligian’s mantra is spot on. From what I’ve seen over the summer and heard from both teammates and daily team observers, don’t be surprised if Stafford is indeed better in 2015. Completing 64% and bumping the YPA over 7.5 (60.3% and 7.1 in ’14) is very realistic, and his sack numbers should look better behind a revamped line. Keep in mind his “good” has thrown for more yards in any four-year period than any other QB in NFL history except Drew Brees, and now Stafford is more comfortable in the same offense Brees was to accomplish it.

3. Have the special teams improved?

Detroit would have finished 13-3 instead of 11-5 last season with even league average placekicking and returning. Alas, having kickers who missed as many field goals in the first six games as the rest of the league combined.

Special teams were a veritable nightmare in Detroit last year. At one point the Lions were 1-of-9 on field goals beyond 30 yards in a league where 8-of-9 is barely average. I wrote about the frustration after a Week 5 loss to Buffalo, where replacement kicker Alex Henery cost Detroit a win with four misses.

That led to signing Matt Prater, a defrocked Pro Bowler in Denver who was let go for his substance abuse (alcohol) issues. Prater struggled a bit at first but settled in nicely as he got acclimated to kicking in Ford Field, where more field goals were missed than any other stadium over the last two seasons. He has been nothing short of perfect this offseason, and I mean that quite literally. I attended four Lions practices and their first preseason game. Every single attempt by Prater, including a 60-yarder, sailed over the dead center of the crossbar. He was awesome enough that the Lions were able to trade impressive undrafted free agent Kyle Brindza without hesitation.

Return woes have dogged Detroit off and (mostly) on for years. Jeremy Ross shined right after Detroit acquired him in 2013 but failed to break any returns last year. His 25.4 yard average on kick returns, which is above average, came with the downer that his longest return went for 41 yards. He made several poor decisions on punt returns as well. Ross has several challengers in camp (notably Ameer Abdullah and T.J. Jones) but remains the favorite to hold onto the gig. Whomever wins the job needs to provide more big returns to set up the Lions with some shorter fields.

Punter Sam Martin is one of the best in the league, though his two bad kicks last year both came at obscenely inopportune times. He’s also among the best at kickoffs. The coverage units, led by Isa Abdul Quddus and Tahir Whitehead, are among the better groups.

4. How quickly does the rebuilt offensive line gel?

Longtime starters Rob Sims and Dominic Raiola are both gone, meaning Detroit will have new starters at left guard and center for the first time this decade. Luckily for the Lions, they’re replacing two of the weakest starters on the team.

Travis Swanson will get the nod at center. A third-round pick from Arkansas, Swanson saw action (primarily out of position at right guard) as a rookie and rebounded nicely after a lousy start. He improved every game and his ability to flow outside is an upgrade from Raiola, who played one year too long.

At left guard, Detroit doubled down in the draft. They traded back from the 23^rd pick to the 28^th slot. In the process they acquired veteran Manny Ramirez as part of the trade and then used the first-round pick on Laken Tomlinson from Duke. Ramirez, who did not play well in his original Detroit stint, has developed into a quality enough player that he started as Peyton Manning’s center in Denver for two years. His leadership was evident from the first day of training camp, and it’s a very welcome and divergent style from the abrasive Raiola. Tomlinson is instantly one of the smartest players in the league, and he’s got a powerful base and sound fundamentals. Getting a ready-made starter and a sixth OL with one draft pick is a real coup for GM Martin Mayhew.

Getting right guard Larry Warford back at full speed is a requisite. He’s one of the best run blockers in the league, and Detroit needs all the help it can muster to upgrade the pedestrian ground game. Unfortunately the War Daddy got nicked up in preseason and might not be at 100% once again. Ramirez can fill the gap in the short-term, but Warford would be missed.

Right tackle was a rotating door or doom and gloom last year. LaAdrian Waddle, a pleasant surprise as an undrafted rookie in 2013, regressed on the field and then got hurt. Veteran Corey Hilliard was barely adequate and then he got hurt. Undrafted rookie Cornelius Lucas proved he lacked the foot speed to handle the edge. Waddle is the presumptive starter, but he missed all summer recovering from his knee surgery. He’s been cleared to play and looked good running on the side in camp, but Waddle is a variable for sure.

The depth at tackle is a big issue. While Riley Reiff has developed into a solid starter at LT, the reserves do not inspire confidence. Lucas was not impressive in preseason but he was better than 7^th round pick Corey Robinson. If Waddle struggles staying on the field again, all the offensive firepower could wither on the vine against teams with good edge rushers. 

5. Can the defense do it again?

Last season’s success came courtesy of Defensive Coordinator Teryl Austin’s creative, wildly effective defense. The Lions were one of the best defenses across the board:

It was a balanced, strong defense which consistently held opponents in check. The ability to snuff out of the run facilitated many of the comeback wins, as teams couldn’t run out the clock or sustain drives well. Detroit did a great job at clamping down when needed.

Other than the starting DTs, the entire defense returns intact. And there are premium talents at all three levels.

Defensive end Ezekiel Ansah has made tremendous strides in his first two seasons. He is an athletic freak, a long and strong edge presence with the ability to win with either power or speed. He’s one of the best young pass rushing talents in the league. In Austin’s scheme, Ziggy often winds up stunting inside or even can line up at tackle in inverted formations.

At the second level, LB DeAndre Levy has strung together two outstanding seasons. He’s one of the most complete off-the-ball LBs in the league, outstanding in coverage and a crushing force against the run. His quick reactions, underrated power and exceptional field sense have made Levy an impactful defender. With Stephen Tulloch back next to him, Detroit has a dynamic duo which should have no problem remaining near the top in run defense. Tulloch adds the dimension of being a great A-gap blitzer, though he needs to avoid celebrating his sacks so enthusiastically. The upside of his knee injury a year ago was that the Lions figured out Tahir Whitehead is a perfectly capable starting LB.

The secondary was nothing short of fantastic. Corners Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay proved to be a great combination. Mathis is ageless, while Slay is an up-and-coming star. Both have length and ball skills. Safety Glover Quin is criminally underrated, a perfect fit for the rangy role in Austin’s defense. He earned his first Pro Bowl nod, and he’s a legit threat to lead the NFL in forced turnovers in 2015. His running mate James Ihedigbo is a sledgehammer against the run with an opportunistic bent. He can be a liability in coverage but few safeties fill the gaps versus the run so well.

This year’s defense could be even better, believe it or not. The top two nickel CBs, Bill Bentley and Nevin Lawson, were both lost for the season by the middle of Week 2. Lawson is back healthy, and the team brought in 6^th round pick Quandre Diggs and veteran slot guy Josh Wilson to shore up the weak spot. Second-year LB Kyle Van Noy offers real promise and depth, though he must stay healthy. The line has depth with guys like Devin Taylor, former CFL sack champ Philip Hunt and versatile veteran Darryl Tapp.

The star here is Austin, who will be in line for a head coaching job as soon as next winter. He is a tactical genius, constantly keeping opposing offenses off-balance with exotic wrinkles and expertly designed schemes. It helps having reliable cogs like Quin and Levy, but Austin is the one indispensable piece to the Detroit defense. They might not get as many sacks from the defensive tackles, but the overall D should remain in the top five overall. 

Forecast: This is one of the most talented rosters in the league, and they’re coming off a playoff appearance where they more than held their own. Perhaps no other returning postseason participant has lost less, either through player movement or preseason injury. They even got better at spots where they needed to, chiefly running back with Ameer Abdullah in place of Reggie Bush and the youth movement on the offensive line.

The schedule is formidable, however. An opening trip to San Diego is no picnic, and it’s followed by two 50/50 games at Minnesota and home for Denver. The 50/50 games are critical, games which can go either way. If the Lions find success in those affairs, which also include the London game against Kansas City, a home date with Philadelphia and road games at New Orleans and St. Louis, they will threaten the Packers for the NFC North title. I suspect Detroit will have some off games, and that will relegate them to another Wild Card appearance. Detroit falls back to 10-6 but still makes the playoffs and has the potential to win multiple playoff games with a hot Stafford and healthy defense.