2014 Record: 7-8-1, won NFC South, lost in Divisional Round

Current +/- wins per LV Hilton: 8.5

Overall: Head Coach Ron Rivera lived up to his Riverboat Ron moniker in 2014. Mired in a major slump that had some calling for his head, Rivera made some radical changes to the defense. It worked, and it catapulted Carolina to an improbable NFC South title despite a losing record. They became the first team to ever repeat as division champs.

The late run and impressive playoff performance, thumping Arizona and hanging tough in Seattle, show the real promise in Charlotte. The young defense, keyed by All-pro linebacker Luke Kuechly, is fast and physical. Cam Newton has progressed as a quarterback and a leader, and when he’s rolling the offense is tough to stop.

Yet there are serious holes. Offensive skill position talent around Newton has never been weaker, not even in the expansion season. Newton will have to carry the offense on his broad shoulders with better consistency and more efficiency if the Panthers are to make it three division titles in a row. 

Five Questions

1. Will the offensive line hold up?

This question should probably narrow down the concerns to just the tackles. There is definitely no concern over center Ryan Kalil, one of the best in the business and almost certainly the most athletically adept at his position. Right guard Trai Turner isn’t a worry either. Turner stepped in as a third-round rookie and acquitted himself nicely, proving an immediate upgrade in pass protection over veteran Fernando Velasco. Considering he was widely regarded as a run blocking specialist coming out of LSU, the fact he was competent as a pass protector off the bat portends very good things for Turner’s future.

Andrew Norwell was a pleasant surprise at left guard, outplaying Amini Silatolu. Norwell’s ability to sustain blocks keeps him from being beaten completely, something that has been a problem for the oft-injured Silatolu. The former 2nd round pick is on the roster bubble thanks to his unreliability, both in terms of availability and pass protection. Norwell has a finite ceiling with his short arms and limited punch, and he probably hit it last year. As long as he doesn’t regress much, he won’t be the problem.

The problem comes at tackle, where the team has struggled mightily since bedrock left tackle Jordan Gross retired after the 2013 season. They tried Byron Bell last season and he was an unmitigated disaster, allowing 11 sacks and getting beaten around the left edge with scary ease. Bell is now the backup left guard in Tennessee.

Normally this would be addition by subtraction, but his replacement at left tackle is Michael Oher. Sure, he’s famous for The Blind Side and an experienced veteran. Unfortunately he has not been an effective player. Look at all this red in his Pro Football Focus profile…

 

Oher is okay when his blocking target starts within reach, but when he has to move before engaging he’s in real trouble. Guys like that typically wind up either at guard or at right tackle, but Oher will be charged with Cam Newton’s blind side (sorry, too easy). The plan is to have Mike Remmers man the right side. The run game improved when he took over for Nate Chandler during last season. Remmers is nothing more than a bandage at tackle, and relying on him long-term is not a good idea.

The wild card in the mix is rookie Daryl Williams. A fourth-round pick from Oklahoma, Williams has been outstanding in the preseason. He has impressed on both the left and right sides, and his natural power and tenacity deserve a starting role sooner than later. Kalil has missed time in the preseason, which led Offensive Coordinator Mike Shula to experiment with Remmers at center and Williams manning the right side. There are some around the organization who are ready to install Williams over Oher, and if the former Raven struggles early it’s a change that could come midseason. Remember, Coach Rivera is not averse to shaking things up.

Injuries here would be devastating. Remmers is the only real depth, and the veteran waiver wire figures to provide little help.

2. Who will catch the ball?

When second-year wideout Kelvin Benjamin went down, this already pressing question took on even more urgency. Benjamin had almost double the targets of the next-closest wideout last year, 142 to Jerricho Cotchery’s 72. While he struggled at times with drops and his catch rate barely broke 50%, he was the passing game catalyst.

His absence leaves a glaring hole. Cotchery becomes the #1 wideout by default. The 33-year-old is very good on shorter routes over the middle and catches well in traffic, but that’s a role better-suited as the third or fourth wideout, not the lead dog.

It’s dire enough that a waiver-wire claim could wind up starting. That would be Kevin Norwood, a 2014 fourth-round pick out of Alabama who couldn’t stick in Seattle. He’s a jack-of-all, master-of-no trades as a wideout. He’s polished enough to contribute perhaps 50 receptions, but he’s not a guy who worries opposing defenses. Ted Ginn Jr. returns to Carolina as the deep threat, a role he parlayed into 36 catches and 5 TDs in 2013 before sojourning to Arizona. As always with the speedy Ginn, he’s a bigger threat as a return man than a receiver with his rudimentary routes and spotty hands. He’s competing with another Ohio State speedster, Corey Brown, who snagged 21 passes and showed competitive fire as a rookie.

Many are expecting major contributions from Devin Funchess, the Panthers’ 2nd-round pick. A tight end for most of his Michigan career, Funchess lost weight and played wideout for the Wolverines as a senior. He often looked like a tight end playing wide receiver, as the footwork and rhythm to his routes was rudimentary. He also struggled with catching the ball in the open, a trait he shares with Benjamin. Sheer opportunity should get Funchess quite a few targets, but he’s not close to the overall receiver Benjamin was coming out.

Tight end Greg Olsen should wind up leading Carolina in catches and yards. He’s great flexed out and attacking the deeper seams, fluid off the line and blessed with the movement and body control of a smaller receiver. Olsen has never been a great blocker, but that’s not why the Panthers are paying him. Adding Ed Dickson as the second tight end could pay off handsomely. He’s a wide-bodied target over the middle, albeit one coming off injury and perennially carrying questions about his hands. I like that he has experience playing in multiple TE sets from his Baltimore days, which should help him acclimate to a fairly meaty role here.   

3. How much will the youngsters on defense develop?

The Panthers sport a cadre of young starters on defense. Five of the seven starters in the front have come from the 2012-14 drafts, as do three of the top five in the secondary. It’s a core which has quickly melded together, one which really took off once Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere took over in the secondary.

Gambling on the youth movement paid off. Boston, a 4th rounder in 2014, improved the range and energy at safety. His looser play allowed veteran Roman Harper to focus more on stuffing the run and play with more authority. Benwikere came one round later, and his insertion into the starting lineup provided more reliability in coverage and better run support on the edge than the man he deposed, Melvin White. It also allowed fellow starting corner Josh Norman (5th round, 2012) to flip to the left side, where he looked more comfortable. Harper proved a great mentor for the young cats, too.

The 2013 draft brought Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short in the first two rounds, and the defensive tackle duo is emerging as a real dynamic duo. It’s Short, the second round pick out of Purdue, who has become the more impactful player. Some of that is by design in having Lotulelei thrive at doing a lot of dirty work inside. They invigorate a deep rotation with veterans Dwan Edwards and Colin Cole, which keeps everyone fresh and draws the best out of the aged legs. Expect Short and Lotulelei to get a higher percentage of the snaps going forward. They can handle it.

Kony Ealy will move into a starting role at end in his second season. The second-round pick a year ago started slow but netted 3 sacks in the final four games. With Charles Johnson still providing consistent pressure on the other side, Ealy’s versatile game and relentless effort should grow. He’s not apt to make anyone forget Greg Hardy, but 8.5 sacks is eminently possible for the Missouri product. Ealy relegates Wes Horton, a 2013 undrafted free agent, to the reserve role where he belongs. They can even work a run/pass platoon, as Horton plays the run pretty well but offers zilch as a pass rusher while Ealy can get washed out versus the run.

Luke Kuechly is a tackling machine. The 2012 first-rounder probably just got credited with a tackle; his totals seem that absurd. While he made fewer plays on the ball a year ago, Kuechly is one of the brightest young stars in the league. He has earned his All-Pro status and figures to keep it for years to come. Few players are more indispensable to their teams than Kuechly. He’s got a great running mate at LB in Thomas Davis, who has overcome years of injuries and rewarded Carolina’s patience with rangy, hard-hitting play. Davis is also one of the top cover LBs in the league, able to turn and run with the fastest TEs and sniffing out screens like a bloodhound. They are a great combination at linebacker. A.J. Klein joins them about a third of the time, and the 2013 5th rounder is a capable strongside backer against the run.

I really like the mix of youthful promise and veteran leadership here. Guys like Davis, Roman Harper and Charles Johnson are good mentors for their younger teammates, covering all three levels. It wouldn’t mean much if the greybeards couldn’t play anymore, but they can. It’s a well-conceived plan and it should be even better in 2015 as long as guys like Short, Benwikere and Ealy keep making steps forward.

4. Does last year’s hot finish carry over?

Flash back to the beginning of December 2014. The Panthers sat at 3-8-1, without a win since October 5th. They had been blown out by Philadelphia and Minnesota in two of the last three weeks. It sure looked bleak.

Then a funny thing happened. Carolina won, thumping the Saints 41-10. Then they won again, a squeaker over the Buccaneers. And again, barely beating a Browns team which managed just 8 first downs. They annihilated Atlanta 34-3 in the finale to capture the NFC South title, then pounded the QB-challenged Cardinals in the Wild Card round.

Five wins in a row is nothing to sneeze at. The fact Carolina was pretty competitive in the loss at eventual NFC champion Seattle keeps that momentum rolling. This is a team which got its proverbial act together, better late than never. A look at how they did it proves replicable going forward, too.

- Takeaways. The move to the youngsters in the secondary helped spark a binge on taking the ball away. 12 takeaways came in those five wins. They notched just 5 in the prior six games.

- A commitment to the run. Carolina rushed for over 135 yards five times all year. Four of them came in that string, and the loss in Seattle came close at 132. They averaged 5.2 yards per carry in December, raising the season average from 3.9 to 4.5 in one month and did so by carrying the ball an average of 6 times more per game.

- The passing offense got more conservative. Cam Newton’s lowest yards per attempt, yards per completion and fewest passes gaining more than 20 yards all came in the final quarter of the season. Getting the ball out quicker on shorter routes helped cut the negative plays, the sacks and turnovers.

That recipe for success will absolutely work once again. It’s incumbent upon Coach Rivera and his staff to recognize how they righted the listing ship a year ago. The ability to lean on the run, create better offensive balance and consistently win the turnover and sack battles is how Carolina made its unlikely playoff surge. Deviating from this course with the current offensive line and receiver issues would be going back to full speed ahead right into the iceberg. 

5. Where is the depth?

As touched on with the offensive line, depth is a real problem across the roster in Carolina.

Take running back. A few years ago the Panthers had Deangelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, enviable depth of real talent. Now it’s just the perennially dinged-up Stewart, even though Tolbert has returned to Carolina…as a fullback. Fozzy Whitaker, Jordan Todman, even rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, these are all limited role players who are the next Stewart malady away from being the feature back. Perhaps Tolbert can reignite the fire that made him a fan favorite in his first stint and prove his terrible 2014 (2.1 yards per carry) was all about the leg injury that slowed the human bowling ball.

Defensive end is another thin spot. Starters Charles Johnson and Kony Ealy are (hopefully) fine, but the dropoff to reserves Wes Horton or Mario Addison is extreme. Because the Panthers rely on the ends so heavily to produce the pass rush, an injury to either starter would be devastating.

At linebacker there is potential depth, but it’s unproven. Two rookies, first-round flash Shaq Thompson and fifth-rounder David Mayo, are the projected backups. Thompson brings athletic versatility; some thought he might actually be a safety in the NFL for his litheness in space and closing speed. His versatility brought questions of fit, however. I’m not sure he has a natural position, and the former Washington Husky will need to show he is strong enough to handle the power of the NFL game. Mayo is a great success story, going from living in a shed to racking up tackles at Texas State. Unfortunately he’s a limited athlete and it has shown in preseason trials. Journeyman Jason Trusnik--if he makes the roster--is a special teams specialist. Another rookie, Brian Blechen, was a safety at Utah and needs a year or two on the practice squad to bulk up to play closer to the line. I do like his long-term potential though.

After the main five in the secondary the picture is grim as well. Carrington Byndom might as well have a bullseye on his jersey, because opponents have picked on him in preseason and he has proven that a sage plan of attack. He barely saw the field as a rookie. Undrafted Dean Marlowe is a physical thumper from James Madison who probably should consider emulating Blechen and moving to linebacker. He was not effective in coverage at the FCS level. Kurt Coleman is the only semblance of proven depth in the secondary, yet he was let go by three teams in 2014. It’s not pretty, folks…

This could be a real problem on special teams. So many rookies and inexperienced players will be relied on to perform well on coverage and blocking units. It’s tough to build cohesion and establish roles like this. Most of the better special teamers from last year, guys like Charles Godfrey, Chris Ogbonnaya, Jason Williams, are all elsewhere in 2015. For a team with limited offensive firepower, Carolina cannot afford to consistently lose the field position battle or give up big returns. 

Forecast: Getting off to a fast start is important for all teams, but for this Panthers unit it’s a strict imperative. Weeks 1-4 offer a great chance to build upon last year’s strong finish:  at JAX, home for HOU and NO and then at TB. They have to win three of those, as this is unquestionably the easy part of the schedule. The next patch of games following the Week 5 bye is ominous: at SEA, then home dates with PHI, GB, and IND. Those represent three of the four with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and the outlier is the 6th-ranked Eagles. Five of the next seven are on the road, including Dallas and a December trip to the Giants.

Last season proved that a decent start and a hot finish could be enough. History is not likely to repeat itself, not with this tough schedule. As long as the defense stays healthy and the offense has some semblance of potency, Carolina will not be an easy opponent. Unfortunately they’re unlikely to outscore a lot of those opponents without some lucky breaks. I see the Panthers opening 3-1 but entering the final two weeks with a 6-8 record. As they proved last year, beating Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the final two weeks to make the playoffs can be done. But will the 8 wins be enough to repeat as NFC South champs? It’s doubtful. Carolina misses the playoffs despite raising the win total from 7 to 8.