2014 Record: 2-14, last in AFC South

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 5.5

Overall: 2014 was an awful season for the Titans. New Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt immediately found quarterback issues, having to start Charlie Whitehurst and Zach Metternberger after yet another Jake Locker injury. The running game never developed and points were at a premium for a disjointed, undermanned offense. The defense couldn’t get off the field, ranking near the bottom in both takeaways and third down conversions while failing to generate much pressure on the opposing QB.

There are some silver linings for Titans fans to embrace as the 2015 season commences. Marcus Mariota has the potential to be the franchise quarterback the team desperately covets. Smart acquisitions like Da’Norris Searcy, Perrish Cox and Brian Orakpo give the defense a much better chance to compete and perhaps even make a few plays. 2014 1st round pick Taylor Lewan is the real deal at left tackle. Kicker Ryan Succop and punter Brett Kern are both above-average performers that can help win close games.

This doesn’t appear to be a team positioned for a quick recovery, however. Expect many bumps in the road as the young offensive core learns the NFL ropes together. There are still a lot of questions on defense, too. This is reflected in the projected win total, as no team has a lower figure than Tennessee’s 5.5. Can they surprise everyone and top it? 

Five Questions

1. Who is going to score touchdowns?

When I first bounced this as a proposed question to a person who covers the Titans, I got an interesting response. Instinctively he shot back “what do you mean, there are playmakers here”. When I countered with “on paper, maybe”, I got a delayed pause before a begrudging “that’s the hard truth, isn’t it?”

It is a hard truth, because the Titans do have real potential at the playmaking spots. Yet last year the leader in touchdowns was Kendall Wright with 6. Bishop Sankey scored the most on the ground with a whopping two. Much of the blame for the humdrum productivity gets pointed at the shaky QB situation from 2014, where Jake Locker failed once again and Zach Mettenberger quickly proved he wasn’t a long-term solution either.

The QB issues gloss over a group of wideouts and runners who all fail to meet the hype they’ve received from the fantasy football gurus and draftniks too stubborn to admit they were wrong on certain players. Tennessee strangely has an overload of those kind of guys: Justin Hunter, Sankey, Dexter McCluster, Hakeem Nicks. Even rookie Dorial Green-Beckham has strong potential to fall into this unfortunate billing.

Wright is the best receiver of the lot, though he has some warts of his own. The 2012 1st round pick from Baylor missed two full games and parts of others last year, holding his totals in catches (57) and yards (715) well below his impressive 2013 postings. He did raise his yards per catch a full yard to 12.5, and the six TDs doubled his total from his first two seasons. Wright has great speed but also an understanding of how to use it judiciously, and he’s adept at breaking tackles and creating after the catch. In a better offense he’s a solid #2 wideout, but here he’s #1 with a bullet. That’s not his fault, but it raises expectations unfairly on his ceiling. Those expecting more than 75 catches, 1100 yards and 6 TD are going to be disappointed. Those figures approximate what Brandon LaFell or Eric Decker did last year.

Hunter is undeniably athletic. He runs like a gazelle, leaps like a kangaroo and has the full speed agility of a jaguar. Yet it’s another animal comparison which I find apt:

 

Hunter has struggled mightily with the two fundamental tenets of playing receiver: catching the ball and running good routes. He does neither. That helps explain his catch rate of 42% last year, the only player with at least 50 targets who failed to catch at least half the balls thrown his way. Pro Football Focus charted him with 7 drops to his 28 catches, meaning there’s a one in five chance he drops any ball he touches. That’s astonishingly awful for an NFL player. Sure, it could all come together for him in his third year with a new, more accurate quarterback. It’s also possible the Titans decide to cut their losses when the 34th overall pick in 2013 has just 8 catches and one TD in the first six games.

Green-Beckham, the second-round pick with the size of Calvin Johnson, offers potential. Keep in mind he hasn’t played in well over a year after being kicked off Missouri’s team and failing to get NCAA clearance to play at Oklahoma thanks to his repeated youthful transgressions. He could be a real threat, but it’s more likely it takes DGB some time to get acclimated to being a football player again. If you’re looking for a wild card to emerge, he’s the best bet. McCluster? Not so much. In his four seasons in Kansas City and first in Tennessee, the mighty mite averaged about 240 yards receiving and scored just 6 TDs as the teams desperately tried him at both running back and receiver.

Sankey was pumped up by many as a draft sleeper and fantasy gold last year. Now that he’s got a year of NFL film, that enthusiasm should be effectively curbed. He’s a smaller back without great vision who proved surprisingly easy to tackle as a rookie. To his credit he’s looked sturdier in the preseason. Perhaps that’s because Sankey has a challenger for his job…

 

Cobb, a rookie from Minnesota, is the anti-Sankey. He’s pretty straightforward with his running, trying to run through contact instead of around it. Cobb finishes his runs with maximum effort and lets would-be tacklers know they’re in for a battle. Those skills could serve the Titans well in short yardage situations and in the red zone, two areas where the team struggled in 2014. Tennessee ranked 25th in red zone TD percentage and 31st in third down conversions with a paltry 30.1%. 

2. How good can the defensive line perform?

The unit doesn’t get much national notoriety, but Tennessee quietly has one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL. It’s a unit spearheaded by one of the most anonymous star performers in the league in tackle Jurell Casey. The four-year veteran has 15.5 sacks over the last two seasons, more than Ndamukong Suh. He can rush from inside or push the tackles, giving the line versatility. He signed a big contract extension over the summer and also beefed up a bit to help his run defense, which was merely average. If he can augment his great pass rush by being an above-average run defender, Casey will finally start to get the acclaim he deserves.

The rest of the front is a deep rotation of functional role players. Sammie Lee Hill is solid in the middle versus the run. Ropati Pitoitua, all 6’8” of him, appears to have finally found a home at end in Tennessee’s 3-4 base. Neither he nor Hill are pass rush instigators, but they play well next to each other and are not the reason the run defense struggled so mightily. DaQuan Jones flashed some ability at the end of his rookie season, and the 2014 fourth-round pick out of Penn State will see more action in his second campaign. With Mike Martin and Karl Klug both solid reserves, the Titans have real depth across the front even if some of it is better-suited to play in a 4-3.

The edge rushers need to produce more. Derrick Morgan led the team with 6.5 sacks, but that’s not enough for a guy with as much burst and skill in space as the former first-round pick. He’s never topped that 6.5 sack figure. Because Morgan is not very stout against the run, he really needs to post a career-high while flanking a talented front. Brian Orakpo was signed from Washington to provide punch from the other side. Like Morgan, he’s a former first-round pick who has disappointed without being a bust.

Orakpo came into the league and thrived as a pass rush specialist, but he has just 11.5 sacks over the last three seasons. Two of those ended early with injuries, and he must prove he’s able to withstand a full season. If so, he will help the perimeter run defense with his positional gap discipline and backside pursuit. I like the signing of Falcons castoff Jonathan Massaquoi, who has juice around the edge but never saw the field much in Atlanta. His inferior run defense might have had something to do with that, but here he can be a specialist. Fourth-round rookie Deiontrez Mount has demonstrated some ability in preseason, often standing out for his fundamentally sound tackling. The defensive front will not be the problem, though the lack of sacks is a lingering issue.

3. Who makes plays on defense?

Tying in with the inability to sack the opposing quarterback, the Tennessee defense overall is starkly bereft of impact playmakers. This is a team which registered just 5 takeaways in the final 8 games of 2014, finishing 29th in the league with 16 forced turnovers. Dig a little deeper here and you’ll discover the Titans forced the fewest fumbles, with just 7. No other team forced fewer than 14.

The Titans snagged 12 interceptions, which tied with several teams for 20th. Jason McCourty was the team’s top ballhawk with his 3 INTs and 11 PDs, both of which are low for a team leader. He’s the best cover man on the team by a wide margin, but McCourty recently underwent groin surgery and will be out for the first few games. Michael Griffin, who ranked near the league lead in missed tackles, produced just 2 INTs as the starting “playmaker” safety. It’s been 7 years since his one great season, and he’s not an asset versus the run enough to justify keeping him on the field.

Griffin and George Wilson finished as the 82nd and 83rd safeties in Pro Football Focus grading a year ago. There were 88 total graded safeties. This is where there is hope. Wilson is out, replaced by free agent Da’Norris Searcy. In Buffalo last year, Searcy finished 18th on that same list. The meager numbers (3 INTs, 1 PD) belie his skill, as opponents only targeted him 19 times. That means he got his hands on 20% of the throws in his direction. Searcy is also a good blitzer and a vocal presence, two attributes that can only help.

Former 49ers corner Perrish Cox will upgrade the spot opposite McCourty. While he does get beat more often than desirable, Cox is definitively superior to Blidi Wreh-Wilson, who might be the weakest starter at any position in the league. He’s now the top reserve outside, though he’ll have to start while McCourty nurses back to health. Cox pulled down 5 INTs last year and is an agitator extraordinaire. That cuts both ways, however; Tennessee is his fourth team in 5 NFL season, in part because of some off-field transgressions. How he integrates into a defense without a clear field general will be interesting to watch.

The linebackers need to create more action as well. Avery Williamson is a reliable tackler and adequate in short-range coverage, but he’s not a downhill attacker at all. He failed to pick off a pass or force a fumble in his rookie year, though he did recover two fumbles. He’s a fine inside backer if surrounded by playmakers. Unfortunately the Titans lacked that around him. Getting Zach Brown back healthy after missing last season with a torn pec should help. He’s speedy and showed opportunism as a rookie in 2013 with two pick-sixes. He should send Wesley Woodyard to the bench where the special teams specialist belongs.

Depth is a major issue across the back end of the defense. With McCourty out, Wreh-Wilson has to start and that bumps Marqueston Huff up to third at outside corner. Huff was an undersized safety at Wyoming who looked in over his head as a fourth-round rookie a year ago. Coty Sensabaugh is as soft as they come as the slot corner, but there is nobody to take his place until McCourty returns. The Titans are apparently going to try Wreh-Wilson inside even though his issues outside--he can’t turn quickly and holds too much--are exacerbated inside. Guys like Jemea Thomas (whom I liked coming out of Georgia Tech) and Daimion Stafford wouldn’t get off the practice squad for just about any other team, but they’re a tweaked hammy away from fighting for a starting safety job here.

4. How quickly does Marcus Mariota get up to speed?

General Manager Ruston Webster has made his share of bad decisions, but the one he absolutely has to get right is Marcus Mariota. In using the 2nd overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft on the Oregon quarterback, Webster is banking on Mariota to become the face of the franchise and the dynamic quarterback the team has lacked for years.

Mariota should be a very good NFL quarterback. He’s smart, big, and highly athletic with a good-not-great arm. Unfortunately he faces a steep learning curve as he adjusts from the breakneck, high-tempo Ducks spread to the NFL. Rudimentary requirements for NFL quarterbacks, things like taking a snap under center or handing off the ball while backpedaling, are completely foreign to Mariota. The Oregon offense was all about getting the ball out quickly and exploiting quickness mismatches on the periphery, using the read option to deceive defenses, making simple sight reads to complete short throws to wide open receivers.

The Titans aren’t equipped with those kinds of weapons other than McCluster or lithe tight end Delanie Walker. Beyond that, the track record for running that sort of offense even part-time in the NFL is spotty at best. Quarterbacks take inordinate amounts of abuse in that system, and NFL decision makers will not risk such high-priced assets to the risks associated with such beatings. Mariota will have to adapt to the NFl, not the other way around.

His preseason performances have shown promise. After two ugly turnovers in his first two drives, Mariota has proven himself to be decisive, accurate and able to progress counting past two as a passer. He rarely had to do that at Oregon. He hasn’t been jittery behind Tennessee’s solid offensive line. For the most part, Mariota hasn’t stared down his target or given away his intentions with his eyes or posture. Those are things most young QBs struggle with, and he’s ahead of the curve there.

That offensive line should be a real asset. Taylor Lewan has quickly emerged as the vocal leader of the entire team, and he’s pretty darn solid as a left tackle too. Guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack are decent, though Levitre could very well be cut after an underwhelming 2014. Brian Schwenke gives up too much quick pressure up the gut, but Mariota’s exceptional ability to throw on the dead run or take off into the void mitigates this somewhat.

However, I have grave concerns about right tackle. Rookie Jeremiah Poutasi has apparently won the gig. He couldn’t handle speed at all at Utah, and the Titans had better count on giving him tight end or running back help in pass protection. Lest we see more things like this abomination of blocking…

 

Byron Bell, who was slated to be the right tackle when they signed him away from Carolina, has usurped Levitre at left guard. He was arguably the worst tackle in football last year, so I understand the hesitance to stick him on the edge. Yet Poutasi is eerily similar, both in build and blocking style. I have no idea why they’ve soured so much on Levitre other than his massive contract and an apathetic ’14. Prior to that he was one of the best young guards in the league. For a team like Tennessee to make such a rash decision, it’s easy to see why they’re an odds-on favorite to pick in the top 3 once again. Good teams don’t let good players walk out the door with no solid contingency plan in place. Then again, they do have one of my favorite draft prospects from last spring in Quinton Spain on the roster. He was hands down the best run blocking guard in the draft, though he went undrafted due to consistency and footwork issues.

As for Mariota, he will forever be linked to Jameis Winston. That happens when QBs occupy the top two spots. I strongly encourage Titans fans to ignore this linkage, as they never had a chance to land Winston. Mariota needs time to develop into the best Marcus Mariota he can be, not what Jameis Winston might become. He’s an odd fit in this offense, one which doesn’t have the bonanza of playmakers to whom he’s accustomed to delivering the ball. I suspect he’ll improve the embarrassing third down rate more with his legs than his arm, and his dual threat should pay dividends in the red zone too. But there will be turnovers. There will be misreads. There will be five straight drives of 3-and-out here and there. Such is life with a rookie quarterback. The fact he’s so diametrically divergent in skill, personality and style from backup--and deposed starter--Mettenberger won’t help his transition.

5. Is Ken Whisenhunt the right coach?

Flash back to January 2014. I was at the Shrine Game practices in St. Petersburg when the Titans opted to move on from Mike Munchak and the Lions canned Jim Schwartz. All-star game practices are hotbeds of NFL gossip and behind-the-scenes maneuvering, and word quickly circulated that Whisenhunt was headed to Detroit. Whiz was the hottest coaching commodity for his stellar work in reviving Phillip Rivers’ career in San Diego.

Instead, Whisenhunt surprised everyone--including a few GMs in St. Pete--by choosing the Tennessee job. He opted to hitch his wagon to Jake Locker instead of Matthew Stafford, to a defense with far fewer building blocks, to an easier division in hopes of quickly turning it around.

History proved Whisenhunt wrong. Dead wrong. Detroit hired Jim Caldwell and astounded most observers with 11 wins and a playoff berth behind the 2nd-ranked defense and great play from both Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. Whiz finished 2-14 in his first season in Nashville, starting three different quarterbacks while dealing with all the dearth of talent laid out above.

This is a young team, and one of the keys in turning around a losing program is developing the young talent. In watching the Titans last year, it’s hard to find one player who Whisenhunt and his staff made better. That’s true for players from one season to the next but also rookies from preseason to December. Guys were still making the same mistakes, exhibiting the same flawed techniques, screwing up the same coverages from September through the merciful ending, a lifeless 23-0 loss to a Colts team with nothing to play for.

Because Whiz is a noted quarterback guy, Mariota is his new hope. While he worked wonders with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and Rivers in his brief San Diego stint, he had a mixed bag in his tenure as Arizona’s head coach. Kurt Warner saved the day when Whisenhunt failed to bring along Matt Leinart. Or Derek Anderson. Or Kevin Kolb. Or John Skelton.

None of those players had anywhere close to the high ceiling Mariota has. But they were all quite different styles, too. Whisenhunt has never really had a mobile quarterback to work with before. Offensive Coordinator Jason Michael is a tight ends coach by trade, not a quarterback guru. He struggled as a rookie play caller and now he has to tailor an offense to a very divergent and particular skill set of his new quarterback. Color me skeptical this staff can make the adjustment smoothly. And in this win-now NFL, they might not get the time to acclimate if this team starts out 1-7 and the precocious Mariota ranks near the bottom in most metrics.

Forecast: The Titans have a truly bizarre schedule in 2015. The first two games are on the road, followed by four in a row at home that includes a Week 4 bye. Seven of their 8 home games are within a 10-week span. They play Jacksonville two times in three weeks, including a Thursday night game guaranteed to be the lowest primetime rating for any NFL game this decade. Three of the final four are on the road, including trips to New England and Indianapolis.

If the Titans are going to avoid picking in the top-5 again, they’re going to have to get hot in that homestand. The first two road games, at Tampa Bay and Cleveland, are winnable but also potential huge disappointments. Then comes the Colts, Dolphins and Bills. Tennessee is unlikely to be favored in any of those even at home. If the defense starts making plays and Mariota blossoms quickly, I can see four wins at home and perhaps two on the road. But I’m not counting on either of those to happen, not consistently enough to do more than steal a win here or there. Tennessee finishes 4-12 in the first year of the Mariota era.