2014 Record: 11-5, won AFC North

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall: Older Pittsburgh fans might not recognize the Steelers team which went 11-5 and won a tough AFC North division, one which sent three teams to the playoffs. The Steel Curtain is long gone. Only six teams allowed more points at home, and Pittsburgh ranked in the bottom half of just about every defensive statistical metric. Instead, they rode a high-flying offense punctuated with big plays to make the postseason by winning their final four games.  

The buzz over the productive offense mellowed somewhat with a humbling playoff loss to archrival Baltimore. As great as Ben Roethlisberger and the offense were in setting all sorts of team records, the glaring holes in the defense cast a long shadow over much of the fervent fan base. It’s hard for children of the Chuck Noll era to grasp their team being so good on offense and so weak on defense.

Their 2015 fate will be decided on how much the defense has closed the gap. Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell and one of the better offensive lines in Pittsburgh in years will still be good enough to win any game. It’s up to Mike Tomlin to revamp the defense with so many of the long-time recognizable names now gone.

Five Questions

1. Can the offensive triplets do it again?

No package of quarterback, running back and wide receiver on the same team has ever posted more yards than what Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown did in Pittsburgh in 2014. Roethlisberger tied for the league lead in passing yards, Bell finished second in rushing yards, while Brown led the league in both receptions and yards. They became the first team to ever feature a 4,500 yard passer, a 1,500 yard receiver and a 1,300 yard rusher.

One of the things about breaking a historical precedence is that it’s unlikely to happen again. There’s a reason why no one had ever done it before. And there are a couple of reasons to project a fall back on a couple of fronts here.

Roethlisberger topped his career-high in passing yards by more than 600. It helped that his completion percentage spiked up to 67.1, over four points higher than his average over the prior four years. Those are unprecedented heights. Expect the completion percentage and yards per attempt to fall back a bit, and that will drag his total yards back down as well. Fret not, Steelers fans, Roethlisberger is still going to be near the league lead in yards and touchdowns. Just temper the high-end expectations a bit; he’s unlikely to ever post figures like 2014 again.

Bell likely won’t reach last year’s 1,361 yards, but not because he lacks the talent. Instead, he’s suspended for the first two games for a traffic incident involving marijuana. It’s better than the three games he was initially slated to miss, but it still limits his top-end yardage. Bell is a complete running back with the ability to win with either speed or power, and he can catch quite well--128 catches in his first two years. He’s only 23 and his refashioned body is well-suited to handle the workload. Even with the two lost games, the young Michigan State product will challenge for the league lead in yards from scrimmage.

Brown is the safe choice to keep up his part of the equation. He’s incredibly reliable from week to week and his ability to work either short or deep, inside or outside makes him very difficult to slow down.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Antonio Brown has caught at least 5 passes and gained 50-plus yards for 33 consecutive games. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Steelers?src=hash">#Steelers</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NFL?src=hash">#NFL</a> <a href="http://t.co/07PsYv2Mpw">pic.twitter.com/07PsYv2Mpw</a></p>&mdash; AOL Sports (@AOLSports) <a href="https://twitter.com/AOLSports/status/633480695160049665">August 18, 2015</a></blockquote>

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His 129 catches last year represents the 2nd-most in NFL history, and his 1698 yards is sixth all-time. When other wideouts have posted numbers in that realm, they’ve tended to fall off the following season. Marvin Harrison went from 143 (2002) to 94 (2003) receptions, also shaving 450 yards in the subsequent year. Calvin Johnson really fell off from 2012’s record yardage output, but he missed two full games and parts of others in going from 122 catches and 1964 yards to 84 and 1492. Of course, Johnson’s 2011 season ranks ninth on the list, so there is some precedent for Brown to match, if not top his awesome 2014.

As long as this threesome stays healthy, the Steelers offense will remain potent. Big Ben is now 33 and has taken a pounding in his 11 years, but his right arm and shoulder remain sound. I do worry about Brown returning punts, but so far, so good.

2. Where are the playmakers on defense?

One of the most telling statistics on these Steelers came courtesy of ESPN Radio. When I heard it, I almost couldn’t believe Trey Wingo. So I went and looked it up and sure enough he was right. Pittsburgh has created the fewest turnovers in the league over the last three years.

Most teams near the bottom in takeaways fluctuate. Kansas City was last in 2012 with 13 takeaways but finished 2nd the following season with 36. Houston was last in 2013 but led the league in 2014. Not Pittsburgh.

I knew the defense had gotten old and lost some sizzle. Troy Polamalu was giving up a lot more plays than he was making, and the opportunistic secondary as a whole wasn’t the same. But seeing the Steelers consistently ranking near the bottom in takeaways surprised me.

It’s not apt to get better quickly, as three of the four members of the starting secondary return intact. William Gay is the top corner, and he’s solid in coverage. Last year he picked off three passes…and took them all to the house to lead the league. That’s an anomaly for Gay, however; he has nine career INTs in eight seasons. Fellow corner Cortez Allen, who is not good in coverage, has seven INTs in four seasons. Safety Mike Mitchell has created 11 turnovers in six seasons, four of which came as interceptions in his one year in Carolina. In his first season in Pittsburgh he created one takeaway (a forced fumble, one of his two) and only recorded 3 passes defended. He’s good at attacking the run downhill but is not an asset in coverage or at getting the ball back.

Trading for Brandon Boykin to man the slot can help here. Why the Eagles gave up on him so readily is a mystery, because Boykin is one of the better slot men in the league. He’s also a ballhawk, picking off six passes in 2013 and recording 19 passes defended in the last two years. He’s a real upgrade and offers promise to help create some chaos, which is a good thing. Given that Mitchell and Shamarko Thomas, Polamalu’s heir at the other safety spot, are both run-oriented defenders, Boykin’s competence in the middle of the field should prove invaluable.

They will need more help from the defensive front as well. The only linemen or backer who recorded both an INT and a forced fumble last year, Jason Worilds, is gone. The best linebacker, by a pretty wide margin, is Lawrence Timmons. He’s a very good all-around backer, capable in coverage and stout against the run. But he’s not a playmaker who regularly threatens to take the ball back from the offense. Timmons did not record a single turnover last year, and produced just two sacks as well. Maybe a healthy Ryan Shazier, the team’s first-rounder in 2014, can help; Shazier was always attacking the ball during his Ohio State days and has the closing speed and nose for the ball to play quite well next to Timmons.  James Harrison, back for yet another go-around, is good for a couple of strip sacks. But nobody else up front has shown much propensity for producing takeaways.

3. Will the special teams improve?

In 2014 the Steelers were the only team to have the regular punter and placekicker grade negatively at Pro Football Focus. Brad Wing was subpar across the board as a punter. Only three had lower net averages, and only Green Bay wound up with fewer punts downed inside the opposing 20. It was his first season, and even though he’s a cult hero for his good looks and aggressive tackling, it probably should be his last. He’s facing a stiff camp challenge from Jordan Berry, an undrafted rookie from Eastern Kentucky.

There will be a change at kicker, as Sean Suisham tore his ACL over the summer. Suisham was terrible on kickoffs but nailed 93% of his field goal attempts last year, and the Heinz Field conditions are notoriously difficult to master. That task now falls to Garrett Hartley. He was the Saints’ regular kicker for two seasons, let go after he made less than 80% of his kicks between 2012-13. Hartley did go 3-for-3 in fill-in duty for the Browns last year. He’s a line-drive kicker on kickoffs, and most of his teams have used a kickoff specialist instead of letting Hartley try. As of now (Aug. 25) the Steelers have no competition for Hartley.

At least the return unit looks strong. Antonio Brown is as nifty on punts as he is in the base offense. He made the Pro Bowl as a returner (and wideout) in 2013, and he topped the 10 yards per return figure in 2014, including a TD. Markus Wheaton was average on kick returns.

Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith needs to focus on cutting down the penalties on his unit as well. No team had more pre-snap penalties on special teams than Pittsburgh’s 8 last year, and only four teams committed more special teams penalties overall. The best coverage man, speedy inside LB Vince Williams, was guilty of three penalties on special teams--all of which led to opposing points.

4. Does the rookie class contribute much?

Normally a team in the midst of a personnel overhaul leans on some rookies to carry at least some of the load. One with as many recent early-round draft misses (Ziggy Hood, Jarvis Jones, Mike Adams, Alameda Ta’Amu, Jason Worilds, Curtis Brown) as general manager Kevin Colbert and Tomlin have posted is almost expected to require immediate contributions from the 2015 draft class.

It’s not likely in Pittsburgh. The 2014 class will see extensive action, but the ’15 class? Not one rookie is projected to start. That’s okay, as bringing along players--particularly defenders--slowly is something of a Pittsburgh tradition. But this rookie class will really push fan patience.

First round pick Bud Dupree will see some action as a situational pass rusher. The defensive end/linebacker from Kentucky has a lot of athletic ability and strength but not much of a football IQ at this point. He’s fourth on the depth chart at his spot, behind massive draft bust Jones, nondescript Arthur Moats and greybeard James Harrison. He’s played extensively in preseason with mixed results. Dupree, a player I liked in the draft process, is as bipolar with his play as the evaluations of his potential. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN nicely summed up Dupree in a writeup after Pittsburgh’s third preseason game,

Dupree, who got into a heated skirmish with teammates at training camp, affected two plays while in with the starters, stopping a run on the edge and joining a safety by committee. He also produced a solo sack against the second team. Both players needed a good showing, especially Dupree, a 2015 first-round pick who didn’t flash much in the first two preseason weeks.

Second-rounder Senquez Golson is likely to miss the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery in August. He’s never been off the PUP list. It’s too bad, because he is a desperately-needed playmaker in the secondary. Golson played the ball in the air as well as any corner in this draft class while at Ole Miss despite being undersized.

The two offensive picks, wideout Sammie Coates (third round) and tight end Jesse James (fifth), have not impressed in preseason. Coates was another polarizing draft prospect, one I never embraced despite his considerable physical gifts.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Said it when they drafted him: Steelers must really miss Limas Sweed because Sammie Coates is the same guy. <a href="https://t.co/oU05MyX2WW">https://t.co/oU05MyX2WW</a></p>&mdash; Jeff Risdon (@JeffRisdon) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffRisdon/status/633732826278457344">August 18, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Both receivers have really struggled to catch the ball, issues which were present with both Coates at Auburn and James at Penn State. Expect limited contributions from both, as Coates projects as the 5th wideout and James the 3rd TE.

The rest of the draft class might not see the active roster. Defensive tackle L.T. Walton has a definite NFL future, but he’s very raw. Fourth-round corner Doran Grant has impressed daily observers in practice but hasn’t been given much of a chance in preseason action (17 snaps in three games). Gerod Holliman, who led the NCAA with 14 INTs last year at Louisville, is unlikely to make the team at safety despite the dearth of playmakers. He’s really that bad at tackling and run defense.

One to watch is undrafted center B.J. Finney. With stud center Maurkice Pouncey sidelined for at least half the year with his preseason ankle fracture, the door is open for the Kansas State product to win the job. He’s a better talent that current replacement Cody Wallace. I graded Finney as an NFL starter and was not alone in that assessment.

5. Where is the depth?

This dovetails with the rookie section, but it goes far deeper. Injuries, draft picks which haven’t panned out and a lack of strong player development in the Tomlin era have really hurt the overall depth in Pittsburgh.

Injuries to Pouncey and backup QB Bruce Gradkowski highlight the depth issue. The starting offensive line finally came together last year, as guards David DeCastro and Ramon Foster have proven adept surrounding Pouncey. Left tackle Kelvin Beachum improved his lateral agility and is no longer a liability in pass protection.

With Pouncey out, the guards have to be great. While I like the rookie Finney if he gets the chance, he’s undrafted and untested. The rest of the offensive line depth is, well, I’ll be nice and call it uninspiring. It’s a collection of street free agents and undrafted players with no experience. If guys like Alejandro Villanueva or Miles Dieffenbach are thrust into game action, Pittsburgh is in real trouble.

Likewise at quarterback, where Roethlisberger has to stay on the field. Gradkowski isn’t a great backup option but he knew the system and has started 20 NFL games. Landry Jones should be the next man up, but the Steelers have not seen enough from the third-year pro from Oklahoma to trust him. He’s a wasted fourth-round pick. Instead they turned to Michael Vick off the street. Vick is more stylistically comparable to Gradkowski if that’s the angle they are taking, but he hasn’t been a viable NFL quarterback since the beginning of 2012.

Now they face missing wideout Martavis Bryant, whose 8 TDs finished second on the team and whose size is unique at receiver. Bryant is suspended for the first four games. Now the receiving corps must rely on Coates or Darrius Heyward-Bey, who caught three passes last year. Given the lack of depth at tight end too, the first four weeks are set to be a big challenge for Big Ben.

The picture is little better on defense. Cam Thomas is the third end, but he’s lucky to still have an NFL job after years of disappointment. Sean Spence is undersized at linebacker and plays like it. Vince Williams is a solid defensive role player, but he’s gimpy entering the season. Starting defensive end Stephon Tuitt has a sprained ankle that could make him miss some time in September. Timmons has been diagnosed with turf toe, an unpredictable injury that could limit him quite a bit, if not keep him sidelined a few weeks. A team that can’t afford an injury bug has a virulent one attacking before the season even starts. 

Forecast: If Pittsburgh is going to make it back to the playoffs, they’re going to need to overcome a lot of adversity against a very difficult early schedule. They open the NFL season at New England, one of a host of strong defenses which dominate the first few games on the docket. The first eight games are all against teams finishing in the top 15 in defense a year ago, and most of them look at least as formidable as 2014. With so many injuries and suspensions, it’s going to be quite an accomplishment for Pittsburgh to stay above .500 heading into the second half of the season.

The schedule doesn’t really relent then, either. A five-week stretch starts in Seattle and features opponents who all made the playoffs a year ago, ending at Baltimore in Week 16. Even the trip to Cleveland in the finale is no picnic. With the shaky young defense, the burden is firmly on the offensive triplets to match, if not top, last year’s record-setting output. That’s just not a viable strategy. It’s tough to find wins to justify even considering the “over” at 8.5. I’m bullish on the under given the injuries, suspensions and general uncertainty. It wouldn’t really surprise me if Tomlin somehow guides this team to 10 wins, but I see Pittsburgh finishing 2015 with a disappointing 7-9 record.