2014 Record: 12-4, won NFC East

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 9.5

Overall: The Cowboys finally broke through in 2014 after years of tantalizing the fan base, winning the NFC East and a playoff game after years of painful near-misses. Tony Romo posted one of the best seasons by any quarterback in NFL history, with his QB Rating of 113.2, which was the sixth-best ever. Dez Bryant was great as a playmaking wideout and tone setter for the offense. DeMarco Murray charged to the league rushing title behind an outstanding young offensive line. Everything gelled for the Dallas offense a year ago.

The real surprise was the improved defense. The unit improved from bottom-feeding hindrance to relative competence with a few unexpected performances. With strong performances by big-legged kicker Dan Bailey and solid punter Chris Jones, going from lousy to average was good enough to propel Dallas to being one controversial call away from playing a team they’d already beaten for a chance to make the Super Bowl.

For quite visible owner Jerry Jones, it vindicated his patience with Jason Garrett. Until the fateful playoff loss to Green Bay, every ticket Jones bought cashed in handsomely. The trick now is to make it happen again. With Romo, Bryant and the offensive line returning, the offense carries lofty expectations. Yet there are questions on both sides of the ball, ones which could send Dallas back to the land of disappointment.

Five Questions

1. Can the pass defense pass muster?

Last year’s Cowboys survived a dangerous game defensively. They weren’t very good at covering opposing receivers, nor did they rush the passer with much effectiveness. Yet somehow they kept opposing teams out of the end zone fairly well.

Notice an outlier in those statistics?

Dallas took those results and ran after their inept defense from 2012-13, and it was good enough to help a great offense win 12 games. Make no mistake, however; this is not a good defense. In fact, they are just as likely to regress in the points per game category as they are to improve in the other passing defense metrics.

Much of the hope on the pass rush front revolves around the controversial acquisition of Greg Hardy from Carolina. Hardy was once a wildly effective edge rusher, notching 28 sacks in his last 32 games. Just one of those games came in 2014 though, as he was suspended for the rest of the season for a domestic violence incident involving his girlfriend. He will miss the first four games this year, too, and the Cowboys are quite lucky that the number was reduced from the 10 games previously laid out.

Even a rusty Hardy is an upgrade over George Selvie or what was left of Anthony Spencer in Dallas. Continued development from Demarcus Lawrence on the other end would really help. He missed most of his rookie season with a foot injury, then demonstrated why the Cowboys used a second-round pick (34th overall) on him with two sacks in the playoffs. Lawrence has been a star in camp and appears to have taken to the left side naturally. Hardy and Lawrence should combine for at least 18 sacks, which is more than double what Dallas got from its ends a year ago. But if Hardy isn’t great right off the bat, all bets are off. The Cowboys don’t have time for him to work his way back into form.

I’m not a fan--at all--of second-round pick Randy Gregory. The Nebraska product is undersized and sorely lacking strength to play on the edge in the NFL. Moreover, he’s just not a very good football player other than being able to run fast around the corner. That’s much easier done in college than the pros, though to his credit he’s notched sacks in Dallas’ first two preseason games. He might find some success as a limited role player, but Cowboys fans expecting him to be an immediate force are apt to be quite disappointed.

It’s harder to see as much improvement in the coverage realm. Essentially the same cast returns in the secondary, as the top three corners and four safeties remain intact. Orlando Scandrick at corner is probably the only one who should ever be counted on in actual coverage. Fellow corner Brandon Carr has his moments but is toasted far too readily; just three corners allowed more yards per completion, and the veteran finished in the bottom 10 in QB Rating allowed when targeted. He could be a lot better with a competent, rangy safety to help him, but the Cowboys instead have Barry Church and JJ Wilcox.

I have a lengthy history with Barry Church. I guarantee I scouted him during his Toledo days with as fine tooth of a comb as any NFL team. I even had a lengthy pre-draft interview with the hybrid LB/safety. That’s right, he’s as much a linebacker as he is a safety. Any play in front of Church, he’s very good. Ask him to range backwards or far to the sidelines, not so much. He’s a useful piece on a defense, but it really works only if you pair him with a centerfielder type of rangy, lithe safety. JJ Wilcox is a running back (his college position) playing safety, and it shows. When Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli asks them to sit deep and react quickly to the routes and speedy guys traipsing through the zone, he might as well prepare to send out the extra point coverage team.

First-round pick Byron Jones figures to see some action. The big (6’1”, 200) corner might wind up being the most natural safety on the roster, and that could be his early ticket to playing time, as the “big nickel”. He missed half of last season with a shoulder injury, one which caused several teams to drop him off their draft boards and one which has already been dinged up again.

One other area for improvement is red zone defense. The Cowboys ranked 27th last year in allowing opponents to score touchdowns on over 60% of trips inside the 20. Jones’ size could help here.

2. Who steps up around Dez Bryant as a receiver?

Bryant is fantastic, one of the most talented and consistently productive wideouts in the NFL right now. Some would argue he’s the very best receiver in the league, and it’s hard to shout that argument down. Dez led the league in receiving touchdowns with 16, finishing 8th in yards with 1,320 and earning first-team All Pro honors. His blend of size, speed, strength and attitude make him one of the preeminent offensive weapons of the last few years.

The problem in Dallas is finding anyone else to complement Bryant.

Terrance Williams is the No. 2, and he’s not without ability. The Baylor product caught 34 passes a year ago, most of them in the intermediate range but also a few in the deep seams. Williams destroyed the Lions in Dallas’ playoff win, and his speed and ability to track the ball in the air make him a problem for teams who try to man cover him with inferior corners. He doesn’t do much without Bryant stealing away the safeties, and his high-water mark was six catches for 77 yards against the defensively challenged Saints. Ideally he would be a third wideout, but if he can bump up to 50 catches and keep the relatively high 16.8 yards per catch, the Cowboys passing offense will attain much better balance.

The rest of the receiving corps doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Cole Beasley is flashy in the slot with his flowing blonde locks. Like Williams, he can deliver a good game here or there when the defensive focus is elsewhere, but he’s not going to scare anyone on his own. Devin Street caught two passes as a rookie, lacking explosion and the ability to separate from coverage. He does have good size and could emerge as a solid third outside weapon, but that doesn’t help Williams and Beasley both being a peg too high on the depth chart. Guys like A.J. Jenkins, Antwan Goodley and Lucky Whitehead would be unlikely to stick past the first round of cuts on most teams, but one of them will be the fifth wideout here.

Tight end Jason Witten will finish second to Bryant in receptions and targets once again. He remains one of the most reliable receiving tight ends in the game, and his body still looks in fine shape for a 33-year-old with a whole lot of miles on the legs. Nobody chips and releases into the zone behind the linebackers better than Witten, and he and Romo have a kind of mind meld connection. Witten has even developed into a solid blocker, something he wasn’t in the 00s.

Hopes are high that Gavin Escobar and/or James Hanna emerges as more of a receiving threat as the second TE opposite Witten this year. Escobar caught 9 in both ’13 and ‘14, Hanna caught 12 in ’13 and 4 in ‘14, though 4 of Escobar’s catches last year went for TDs. That rate is unsustainable but does hint that the third-year pro is in line for a bigger role. Keep expectations low but hopeful for a pleasant surprise here. 

3. How badly will they miss DeMarco Murray?

This is a bit of a chicken vs. egg argument. Murray led the league in rushing by nearly 500 yards over the next in line, averaging an impressive 4.7 yards and scoring 13 TDs on his 392 carries. The latter figure there also led the league by an astronomical 80 carries; his carry total was the 7th most in NFL history for a single season.

The debate about whether Jerry Jones was correct in not wanting to pay Murray big money (for a historical perspective please read Chris Wesseling’s excellent piece at NFL.com) after such a season is irrelevant. What matters is how well Dallas runs the ball this year without him. Few teams relied so heavily on the rushing offense as Dallas did a year ago. They ran on just under 50% of all offensive snaps, the third-highest (behind Houston and Seattle) in the league. It was a huge spike from just 39% the prior year, a figure which ranked 29th. Murray was a hot hand last year and the Cowboys rode him into the ground.

That’s the egg. Here’s the chicken: Dallas has crafted almost inarguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Was the massive jump in running proclivity and productivity a function of the line or of Murray’s breakout skill?

The line remains fantastic. Committing significant draft resources up front has paid off. Left tackle Tyron Smith, center Travis Frederick and right guard Zack Martin represent three first-round picks in four years, and all are Pro Bowl caliber. Martin quickly achieved that reverent status as a rookie in 2014, and he did so largely with his work clearing big holes for Murray. Frederick, who arrived one year earlier with considerable controversy as such a lofty pick, is arguably the best run-blocking center around. He’s barely average as a pass protector, but his work in the run game is so strong that nobody really minds. Even the “weak link” of the line, left guard Ronald Leary, is an above-average run blocker.

The dedication to the run clearly paid dividends in 2014. Dallas wisely recognized this and doubled down on the line strength by signing La’el Collins after his odd undrafted journey. Collins was a first-round talent at left tackle out of LSU, but unfortunate timing and poor agent representation cost him dearly. He landed on his feet in Dallas, and he provides real punch to the depth chart at either guard or tackle. Given Leary’s wonky back issues, Collins could wind up playing a major role right away. Guess what he was known for at LSU…

The guys actually carrying the ball will have great chances to succeed behind the great line. Joseph Randle thrived last year as the primary backup, averaging 6.7 yards on his 51 carries. He is decisive, explosive out of cuts and runs with excellent functional power for his size (6’, 200 lbs). He’s not as fast in the open field as Murray, and his work in the passing game is an unknown. Murray caught 57 of the 64 passes thrown his way last year, while Randle doesn’t have that many catches in the last three seasons, two in Dallas and his final year at Oklahoma State.

Darren McFadden is much better in name than in actual ability at this point in his NFL career. He hasn’t topped 3.4 yards per carry since 2011, fighting various injuries which have sapped his top gear and makes his hesitant style a detriment. If he can revive his career anywhere it’s behind this line, but I wouldn’t be too bullish. Diminutive Lance Dunbar proved a year ago he’s very good catching out of the backfield, and he could see more action as a result in 2015.

Going back to the running back by Committee is a real gamble for Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan. When he had this similar situation in Detroit and St. Louis, he was quick to abandon the run when no one back was thriving quickly. If the Cowboys aren’t running the ball at least 45% of the time, the offense figures to suffer, even if Randle & Co. are only putting up 80% of what Murray did a year ago.

4. Who is this year’s pleasant surprise?

Last year the Cowboys had a few unexpectedly positive performances. Among them:

- Linebacker Rolando McClain, signed off the retirement heap to replace injured Sean Lee in the middle of the defense. After having sat out over a year, McClain finished third on the team in tackles and was a revelation in coverage.

- Running back Demarco Murray. Everyone knew he could be pretty good, but leading the league in rushing by such a wide margin seemed crazy talk.

- Defensive tackle Henry Melton, let go by Chicago after numerous injury stints, spearheaded the interior pass rush and notched five sacks.

- Defensive tackle Tyrone Crawford, who emerged from doing almost nothing in his first two Dallas seasons and became the D-line’s best run defender while also chipping in 3 sacks

- Linebacker Bruce Carter, picking off five passes after recording none in his first three seasons

- Quarterback Tony Romo, improving his completion percentage from a 3-year figure of just under 65% to 69.9% while raising his yards per attempt by over a full yard from that same time period

Murray, Melton and Carter are now gone, and McClain is in limbo with a 4-game suspension and missing the entire summer with a knee injury. That leaves the door open for others to step up and accomplish greater things than ever before.

The leading candidate is Joseph Randle, who figures to see the ball a lot more at running back than ever before. Escobar is another decent choice to spike up in 2015, though I worry his blocking issues limit his opportunities.

Some others who could--or perhaps must--step up and help prevent a regression:

- Demarcus Lawrence, noted above as someone being relied upon heavily to bring pressure off the edge of the defense.

- Reserve CB Corey White, plucked off the Saints’ scrap heap. He’s always had intriguing potential but it never worked out in New Orleans. He could emerge as a nice slot nickel back to replace Sterling Moore, who probably merited mention in the pleasant surprise list.

- Linebacker Sean Lee, a force when he’s been on the field but a player whose career has been derailed by numerous injuries. If he can stay healthy, he makes the risky McClain superfluous.

- Wideout Lucky Whitehead, who has the inside track to handle all the return duties

5. How well does this team handle success?

Ah yes, the unanswerable. Here’s my best stab at guessing how this factor plays out…

I think last year’s sating of the playoff win drought only whets Jerry Jones’ appetite. I think Jones thinks this team is built to win right now, even more strongly than he has at any point since Jimmy Johnson was his coach and they were actually winning things. I think Jones will be on edge, and his very visible presence all over the Cowboys functions, practices, locker room, training room, etc. will force that edge onto the players. I don’t think Jason Garrett is particularly well-equipped as head coach to manage that with this particular cast of players. The pressure to not only meet, but to exceed lofty expectations will be the biggest impediment to success for a top-heavy roster with more holes in it than Jones, the man responsible for the roster, has any idea exist. This pressure will suffocate the team in a few key situations, and it will cost them. It’s happened to Romo rather notoriously. He avoided it with a truly outstanding, MVP-caliber season in 2014, and that is the biggest reason why it wouldn’t happen again.

That’s my theory, anyway. I could be wildly wrong here. Wildly wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time; I picked Washington to make the playoffs behind Comeback Player of the Year Robert Griffin III last year, after all. But even the most ardent Cowboys fans recognize the kinetic owner’s meddling tentacles often serve a counterproductive purpose for his beloved, high-priced toy. It has happened before, after all. To rule out the possibility of it happening again is willfully myopic. 

Forecast: When I set out writing this preview, I made note of the seemingly odd, low projected win total of just 9.5. This for a team coming off a 12-4 season, and a team which normally gets an extra game bump in the projection to take advantage of overzealous fans of America’s Team.

Then I did some research. The fluky scoring defensive success (see #1 above), the major spikes in Romo’s efficiency, Murray’s running and the impressive run of health outside of linebacker are all outliers from the norm. All NFC East rivals fell short of their projected win totals a year ago, which helped Dallas as well.

I don’t think Dallas gets so many breaks in 2015. But there is still a lot of appreciable talent. I expect the Cowboys to finish in the top 10 in scoring, and the special teams should be a real asset once again. If the scoring defense can stay in the middle third, this is still a playoff team. The schedule favors it, as they draw the NFC South and AFC East in interdivisional play. They drew the two Super Bowl combatants from last year, New England and Seattle, in Arlington.

But I cannot get past the fifth question above. The gut instinct here is so strong that I cannot ignore it and keep my sanity. The lower-than-expected projected win total from the people who do this for a living validates it in my mind. It might sound crazy, but I have these Cowboys finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs.