2014 Record: 8-8

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 6.5

Overall: After a tremendously successful run under Jim Harbaugh, the wheels started to come off in a down 2014. Harbaugh fled for the Michigan job, and a plethora of key contributors are also ex-49ers for one reason or another. Now general manager Trent Baalke is charged with restocking the dilapidated roster while still harboring visions of competitiveness.

Despite the mass defections, there is still some impressive talent in place. Colin Kaepernick has proven he can lead the offense to high-flying playoff wins. The skill-position and offensive line cupboards are not bare, although it’s gone from name-brand to store-brand almost overnight.

There are also young building blocks on defense in safety Jimmie Ward, linebacker Navorro Bowman and a decent front brimming with potential. Given the lowered expectations following the tortuous evacuation of recognizable players, they just might thrive under no-nonsense coach Jim Tomsula. Hiring Eric Mangini to run the defense could be a stroke of brilliance as well.

This figures to be a trying year for the fans at Levi’s Stadium. Super Bowl aspirations have morphed into an attitude of optimistic hesitance. “Maybe if everything comes together quickly” is the new mantra under rookie head coach Jim Tomsula, a football man amongst football men.

Five Questions

1. Has any team every lost more talent in one offseason?

These are not your older brother’s 49ers, the team which reached three straight NFC Championship games from 2011-13, advancing to the Super Bowl once. Heck, these aren’t even your 8-8 49ers from last year. Here’s a look at the massive exodus of talent:

- Patrick Willis
- Justin Smith
- Frank Gore
- Aldon Smith
- Anthony Davis
- Mike Iupati
- Michael Crabtree
- Andy Lee
- Chris Borland
- Stevie Johnson
- Ray McDonald
- Chris Culliver
- Perrish Cox
- Jonathan Martin

Patrick Willis was a first-team All Pro linebacker from 2009-12.

Justin Smith made five Pro Bowls in a row at defensive end from 2009-13

Aldon Smith bagged 42 sacks between 2011-13, including 19.5 in 2012

Frank Gore rushed for at least 1100 yards and scored 29 TDs in the last four seasons

Michael Crabtree was first or second on the team in targets and catches in four of the last five seasons

Mike Iupati made the last three Pro Bowls at left guard

Andy Lee is statistically one of the five best punters in NFL history

Anthony Davis has been an above-average starter at right tackle for the last five years

Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox were the starting cornerbacks a year ago

Chris Borland finished fourth Defensive Rookie of the Year at linebacker despite only starting half the season

It’s been a completely devastating offseason from a personnel addition/subtraction standpoint. The roster has been gutted of most of its recognizable talent, often in cruel ways. Aldon Smith was finally released after yet another brush with the law. Borland shocked everyone by retiring after his rookie year out of fears of concussions and is now an anti-football advocate. Willis unexpectedly retired from a toe injury. Davis opted to retire out of the blue at age 25.

Of course there was also the rather traumatic, dramatic departure of Jim Harbaugh. To say it was an acrimonious split with team management--and several players--is like saying Donald Trump has strong opinions. Regardless of the sentiment for or against Harbaugh, losing such a domineering coaching presence will also make a major impact.

It is impossible to quantify the significance of all those losses on the psyche of the remaining players. I mean, trading a punter? At some point the lemmings see the cliff for what it is…right? 

2. Can Colin Kaepernick carry the offensive load?

If the Niners are going to shock the world and remain relevant in the crowded NFC playoff picture, it is incumbent upon quarterback Colin Kaepernick to elevate his game. Now entering his fifth season, the proverbial next step is right in front of him.

So far his results have been a mixed bag. For the dual-threat brilliance in playoff romps over Green Bay and Atlanta, Kaepernick has also thrown up some real stinkers. Last year’s losses to Oakland and Chicago come to mind, as does the win over New Orleans.

Accuracy and efficiency are issues for the lanky gunslinger. His 60.5% completion rate a year ago ranked 24th. That was accomplished with Crabtree and Johnson, who are now gone and replaced by questions marks. The 19 TDs (t-17th) were offset by 10 INTs and 8 fumbles, and the latter issue is not likely to ever go away given how he holds and carries the ball. Take away his 90-yard scamper and his rushing average dropped by almost a full yard per carry. That was with a significantly better offensive line than the one he’ll line up behind this fall. Kaepernick failed to throw a fourth quarter TD all year, and his QB Rating in the critical final stanza was nearly halved from his first quarter performances.

The talent is there for Kaepernick to ascend some rungs in the NFL quarterback pecking order. Right now he’s near the bottom of a group that includes Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill among others. Because of his rocket arm and unmatched mobility, the Nevada product has the potential to elevate himself into the conversation with the likes of Russell Wilson and Tony Romo, very good QBs who can lead teams on deep playoff runs with solid supporting casts and even take over if necessary to create wins. We’ve seen this ability firsthand with Kaepernick, but it was not evident a year ago.

Realistic goals include upping the completion percentage to 62.5 (the league average), raising the yards per attempt back up above 7.6 (he was 6.9 last year), and avoiding so many negative plays. The turnover numbers were lousy, but the 52 sacks for a guy with his agility is completely unacceptable. He must process information quicker and anticipate his reaction to the information as well.

To that end, the new coaching staff has promised to simplify the offense. One way to help him is to get the play calls in quicker. If Jim Harbaugh has an overriding negative trait as an in-game coach it was the slow rate he called plays. Kaepernick was often rushed to the line and unable to fully evaluate the defense as a result.

Most expect the Niners to lean more on the run game and establish more rhythmic passing tempo. With Carlos Hyde coming off a decent rookie season at RB and adding Reggie Bush and his two random good games per year to go with Kendall Hunter, the running backs do have talent. Anquan Boldin can’t run at all but still somehow gets open and catches tough passes, and no receiver fights harder with the ball in his hands than the soon-to-be 36-year-old. There is some promise at tight end, as I’m not ready to write off Vance McDonald after an underwhelming start to his career and I can see Vernon Davis coughing up one of those late-career renaissance seasons as well. Newcomer Torrey Smith provides a deep threat who can run to the deep ball faster than anyone. Whether he catches it remains a question, but he’s a viable weapon of a different sort than the Niners have had recently. Left tackle Joe Staley is a very good one, which can help secure Kaepernick in the pocket, and freak-nasty blocker Alex Boone remains too. Young interior lineman Marcus Martin can only get better in his second season.

It’s not as dire as some would have you believe, but everything rests on Kaepernick ascending and developing as an all-around quarterback. This is a critical year for him with a new coaching staff and simplified offensive concepts. He should thrive. The Niners are paying him $114M to be more than in a pack between the 12th and 20th-best QB in the league. If it doesn’t happen, these Niners will be picking very early in next May’s draft. Very early…

3. Who steps up on the defensive front?

Two of the three starters on the line and three of the top four linebackers from a year ago must be replaced. These weren’t just any old starters either, as noted above. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are potential Hall of Famers. Aldon Smith was one of the most feared pass rushers in the league. Ray McDonald was an above-average 3-4 defensive end. Borland was a rising star, a player who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ highest-ranked run defending linebacker despite playing just half the snaps of most of his competitors.

Getting Navorro Bowman back at inside linebacker will immediately help. Bowman’s star had risen higher than running mate Willis in their final season together of 2013. When he’s healthy, the Penn State product is arguably the most complete linebacker in the league. He can crash gaps and destroy the run at the line. He can turn and cover even the fastest tight ends. He can blitz. He can tackle in space. Getting him back in the middle of the defense is a real boon.

Michael Wilhoite wasn’t bad at ILB a year ago. He’s got the makings of a solid coverage and clean-up linebacker. That’s not Borland or Willis next to Bowman, but it’s a useful role. An offseason leg injury which has kept him out of camp is worrisome.

At nose tackle, squat Ian Williams returns after missing the second half of 2014. He’s a good schematic fit and one of the more rangy noses in the league. Don’t expect many (read: any) plays in the backfield, but Williams is fine in the middle. In front of a dynamo like Bowman, he looks even better when he’s absorbing both the guard and center.

Aaron Lynch showed some juice as an edge rusher in his rookie season. Six of his 17 tackles were sacks, reflective of his role as a situational reserve. He’ll be asked to do a lot more while still bringing the heat. It’s unrealistic to expect him to fill Aldon Smith’s shoes, but Lynch can attain 10 sacks and play solid edge defense versus the run. If any of the young 49ers on defense are going to break out, Lynch is the most likely candidate. With volatile, erratically skilled Ahmad Brooks on the other side, the Niners should still be able to bring heat off the edge.

I’ll cop to being a Tank Carradine fan from his days at Florida State. He was one of the most explosive line rushers I’ve seen in recent years. The rookie snared three sacks in limited duty late in the year, apparently recovered nicely from the torn up knee which caused his draft stock to fall. If the knee remains sound, Carradine will be a good one. He’s not going to make anyone forget Justin Smith, but opposing blockers won’t take much comfort in that.

San Francisco used its first-round pick on giant Arik Armstead, another defense end. Nearly every scouting report on the Oregon product read the same--great length, rare physical traits, technically raw, often plays far too passive. Armstead might eventually live up to the lofty draft billing, but don’t expect it in 2015. Last year’s fifth-rounder, Quinton Dial, will see far more extensive action. Glenn Dorsey will see the most action at end if his torn biceps is ready, and he’s worked his way into being a solid run defender up front. With mouthy veteran Darnell Dockett coming over from Arizona to try and milk one more year out of his aging, breaking-down body as a nickel rusher, the Niners do still have appreciable depth and talent up front. It’s not the dynamic group of the last few years, but it’s still the core strength of the team. 

4. Jim Tomsula as Head Coach?

NFL teams tend to try and hire a new head coach with a very divergent personality and style from his deposed predecessor. Owner Jed York took that axiom to new extremes by replacing Jim Harbaugh with Jim Tomsula. Everything that was trademark Harbaugh--the goofy, hyper-competitive, outgoing, attention-starved, egomaniacal micromanager--is the polar opposite of Tomsula.

The new head man is about as outwardly enthusiastic as Ben Stein’s teacher role in Ferris Bueller. He’s an everyman, more comfortable talking to groundskeepers and equipment room guys about their kids than hobnobbing with celebrity chefs and staging inordinate amounts of press conferences. Harbaugh longed to be the first and last thing anyone thought of about this team. Tomsula cherishes anonymity and grunt work.

His introductory press conference was a media disaster. He was about as comfortable as a stripper at a convent. Yet the players sure seem 100% on board with him. To borrow from Niners Nation on SB Network,

…one of the most common refrains about Tomsula we have heard before these statements was that he is incredibly popular and respected by the players. That is reflected in some of these statements, but it is something that became clear after word got out that he got the job. I saw numerous tweets from ex-49ers expressing excitement that Tomsula got the job. I've seen mentions of players texting back and forth when it happened. They are genuinely excited for the man.

Again, this is quite a contrast from the plaintive Harbaugh fatigue which gripped most players before last year’s debacle even kicked off. Many players were not shy in off-the-record dissing of Harbaugh for his “wack-nut bullsh**”, as one offensive starter texted me a year ago.

Tomsula has some sound ideas for his team’s direction. He has ordered offensive coordinator Geep Chryst to keep it simple. No more red zone play caller being different from the first down play caller or the short-yardage play caller. The attack will be more focused on beating the man in front of you, not the guy behind him at the same time. Given Kaepernick’s physical skills and Hyde’s running style, that makes sense.

On defense, he’s going the opposite direction. Safety Dontae Johnson summed it up nicely, as relayed by Matt Maiocco:

 

Instead of bland coverages, straightforward rush schemes and relying on great players to make plays, new defensive coordinator Eric Mangini has a lot of creative freedom. Expect to see more overload blitzes, linebacker drops, mixed coverages and so forth. Tomsula recognizes the hand he’s dealt doesn’t have many face cards anymore, so he’s going to try and massage wins out of low straights and pairs of 6s. It might not work either, but it’s got a much better chance than asking Corey Lemonier to be Aldon Smith or Nick Moody to be Patrick Willis. 

5. What to expect from the rookies?

If the 49ers are to file 2015 as “retooling” instead of “rebuilding”, the draft class will have to make a big impact. Unfortunately for Niners fans looking for immediate gratification, Trent Baalke took a long view with this draft.

Armstead is likely to play a very limited role along the defensive line. Given his relative unreadiness from a skill standpoint, that’s a good thing. Yet these Niners could have used a splashy first-rounder. Cornerback Marcus Peters went one pick later, and he would have immediately been the best CB on the roster. Likewise with center Cam Erving a pick later. Do not judge Armstead’s impact on the team from his rookie campaign, but do evaluate his performance relative to players like that or WR Phillip Dorsett or LB Shaq Thompson, other players the 49ers purportedly were considering.

Second round safety Jaquiski Tartt is also a bit of a project, more of a physical monster than football player at this point. It’s a big jump from Samford to the NFL, and the fact he’s limited in coverage might make it even bigger. He’s firmly behind ’13 first-rounder Eric Reid and ’14 first-rounder Jimmie Ward at safety, as well as solid veteran Antoine Bethea and functional journeyman Craig Dahl. In other words, don’t expect much from Tartt, who very well might be a gameday inactive for most of his rookie year. He did look real good as a downhill thumper in the preseason opener, however.

Eli Harold from Virginia was the third-rounder. He was a divisive evaluation, a highly productive pass rusher who accomplished everything almost strictly on being a better athlete than the guy trying to block him. That can fly in college but almost invariably carries the wings of Icarus in the pros. Given the Niners are solid with Lynch and Brooks at rush linebacker, Harold won’t be more than a rotational player in his inaugural season. He and Tartt are great tests for Tomsula and his staff as developers of talent.

The rookie who will make the biggest impact is fifth-rounder Bradley Pinion. He’s the new punter, charged with the dubious task of replacing Andy Lee. The Clemson grad will also get a chance to be the kickoff specialist. Pinion is notable for his high hang time, though he misfired on a few directional kicks and has a slower release than most NFL punters.

As with Carradine a year earlier, and Marcus Lattimore the prior year, the Niners took an injury gamble on wideout DeAndre Smelter in the fourth round. The prognosis for Carradine is good, but Lattimore never played a down. Smelter is reportedly ahead of schedule in recovery from his blown out knee, but the Niners would be wise to be patient with the physical wideout from Georgia Tech. He’s the long-term replacement for Boldin…hopefully.

One to watch is Jarryd Hayne. A former rugby star, Hayne is trying to make it as a running back. The early returns are great; he’s clearly ahead of fourth-rounder Mike Davis on the depth chart behind Hyde and Bush, and he runs like a gazelle. San Francisco won a bit of a bidding war to secure his services, and he’s also got a chance to win the return specialist job. 

Forecast

San Francisco’s win/loss total opened at 9.5 back in April, a week before the draft. It’s fallen three full games after the unexpected retirements and arrest-related releases, and the money line continues to strongly favor the under.

It’s easy to see why. Aside from the talent defection, the schedule is a doozie. Seattle and Arizona both made the playoffs a year ago and appear stacked once again. Road trips to returning playoff teams Pittsburgh and Detroit appear daunting, and the AFC North and NFC East divisions are all quite competitive opponents. Even the “easier” games on the schedule aren’t exactly favorable; San Francisco must travel to Chicago and Cleveland in back-to-back weeks in December, when the weather on the Great Lakes is usually precarious.

I bought in on the under at 9.5. I’m not sure I’d buy in at the new, lowered figure. This defense, while depleted, still has real teeth. Kaepernick is a variable capable of unexpected greatness, and he’s got what looks like a sound run game supporting him. These Niners are going to lose more than they win, but they’re going to be competitive. If the turnover battle is positive and special teams are a wash or better, these Niners are going to be better than the knife-wielding critics would have you believe. Matching last year’s eight wins is probably an unrealistic dream, but they can manage close to it. As long as Kaepernick isn’t terrible, I think they win six and avoid owning the NFC West cellar outright. San Francisco finishes 6-10.