2014 Record: 9-7, 2nd in AFC South

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall: The second year of the Bill O’Brien regime finds the Texans in a familiar position. There is a lot of individual talent, but questions at quarterback and a few other spots clouds just how much the team can achieve.

No talent is more prominent than end J.J. Watt. The best defensive player in the league has posted truly astonishing disruption and production numbers over the last three years, arguably the greatest short-term run of any player in NFL history. That’s a great starting point. The corners are strong, and adding Vince Wilfork at nose tackle can only help the defense. The inside backers and safeties are question marks, and it’s imperative the team find a pass rush from someone other than Watt.

Offensively, this Texans team will look strange without No. 80 lining up outside. Andre Johnson is gone, though general manager Rick Smith has done a nice job bolstering the receiving corps overall. An injury to Arian Foster clouds the run game, where a heretofore unproven youngster will have to step up. But the biggest issue is at quarterback, where a camp battle ensues between two former New England backups with limited games. Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett hold the key to O’Brien’s creative offense. Insert resigned sigh here. If O’Brien can guide this unit to respectability he will really earn his stripes as a coaching commodity.

Five Questions

1. How much impact does a healthy Jadeveon Clowney provide?

We have seen precious little of the #1 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, as Jadeveon Clowney was sidelined for more than half of his rookie campaign. His troublesome knee required microfracture surgery, a serious procedure to fix what is apparently a serious problem.

Houston sorely needs Clowney at full speed and strength to provide pass rushing balance opposite J.J. Watt. At South Carolina, Clowney demonstrated rare quickness and bend off the edge, not to mention his keen timing and closing burst. He is a major disruptive force…potentially.

He still (as of Aug. 11) has not been cleared to practice. Clowney will not appear in any preseason games. It’s hard to gauge exactly what he can do in Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense. He played less than 200 snaps as a rookie and has yet to record his first NFL sack. Because he’s been so injured for so long, it’s hard to expect Clowney to demonstrate great improvement upon his considerable God-given talent.

This is not what the Texans envisioned when spending such considerable draft capital on one of the most celebrated college football players of the century. Clowney was supposed to be an instant 10+ sack artist and foil to keep offenses from focusing so much attention on Watt, the unquestioned best defensive player in the NFL right now.

The Texans don’t have much pass rush punch outside of Watt. Whitney Mercilus, a first-round pick in 2012, has averaged six sacks per year in his three seasons. Mercilus is a good run defender and finally showed some ability to tack inside with his rush a year ago, but he’s ideally a third banana as a rusher. Brooks Reed, mercifully departed, chipped in just three sacks as the other outside backer. Even though he wasn’t much, the depth chart at outside backer with Reed gone is now downright scary for Texans fans. Populated by practice squad/undrafted guys like Jason Ankrah, John Simon and Tony Washington, there is little hope to produce even Reed’s scant output.

There is considerably more hope from the front three. Jared Crick has developed into a useful end, a solid complementary rusher and cleanup artist to Watt’s havoc on the other side. He’s not as dynamic as the man he replaced, Antonio Smith, but he fits Crennel’s defense nicely. So does the new behemoth in the middle, Vince Wilfork. He might be the most important offseason addition for any team in the AFC South. Nose tackle was a black hole in Houston last year, but Wilfork remains one of the very best at the position despite advancing age and an almost cartoonish midsection physique. There is some promising young depth with Louis Nix, Christian Covington and brutish Chris Neild.

The stage is set for Clowney to become the star he was at South Carolina. He could be fantastic playing behind this line. If healthy there is no reason he won’t be on the highlight reels with at least 10 sacks and three forced fumbles. Much less than that, however, and this pass rush will once again be J.J. Watt and The Random Ho-Hums.

2. How much will Andre Johnson and Arian Foster be missed?

One of these was a calculated departure. The other is a devastating, though not unforeseeable, blow to a Houston offense heavily reliant on running backs and receivers carrying the weight of a substandard quarterback situation.

Johnson was a great asset for a long time. Some of those times he was the only offensive asset, especially early in his career. He made seven Pro Bowls and two All-Pro teams, though the last of those was in 2009. Johnson ranks 2nd in active catches and yards, 4th in yards per game and 10th in touchdown catches. The last item there is a thorn in some paws, as he never topped double digits in a season. When you have ever thought of the Houston Texans offense, Andre Johnson is the first man in your mind.

The only other person you could possibly consider for that honor is Foster, who has put up at least 1200 yards in every season where he’s played at least 13 games. Foster is a complete package of a back with every attribute a scout or coach could want, with one exception. He has played in more than 13 games just once the last four years.

Now Johnson is with the Indianapolis Colts while Foster is going to miss an uncertain--but lengthy--amount of time with sports hernia surgery. Estimates are anywhere between a month and half the season for his recovery time. The team was counting on leaning on Foster more with Johnson gone, but now both will be out of the lineup.

These losses highlight a big change in the depth of the Houston offense over the last few years. Running back depth used to be a major strength, while they struggled to field even two other worthy NFL wideouts to pair with Johnson. Now the script has flipped. There is potential at wideout but the running back spot looks like a League City grocery store when there’s a chance for snow, lacking anything substantive but with just enough to keep you from going hungry.

Rick Smith had this day in mind when he drafted DeAndre Hopkins in the first round in 2013. “Nuke” started strong but faded as a rookie, leaving some doubt about his potential as a top wideout. He answered that in his second year, taking over the playmaker job from Johnson and leading the Texans in receiving yards, TDs and yards per catch. Hopkins is a rising star in the league, a deep threat with great playing speed and a feisty attitude. Here’s what he did without Foster last year…

 

With no Johnson, those numbers will go up. Of course it might help the Texans more if newcomers Nate Washington and Jaelen Strong fulfill potential. Washington is a savvy veteran defected from division rival Tennessee, a crafty, sure-handed option over the middle and down the seams. He’s a great fit working inside Hopkins or on tandem or crossing routes. Strong, the team’s third-round pick out of Arizona State, is a physical beast at almost 220 pounds but with the hops of a former high school basketball star. He’s not speedy, but the Texans don’t need an outside blazer. They need a receiver who can make a catch in traffic on a poorly thrown ball on 3rd and 7. Strong can do that. Damaris Johnson showed some spark with 31 catches in the slot a year ago. They even have some intriguing young potential with guys like Keith Mumphery (a street brawler in the slot) and speedy Uzoma “EZ” Nwachukwu. Garrett Graham and CJ Fiedorowicz are acceptable at tight end, too.

Running back behind/in place of Foster is not so sunny. 2014 6th rounder Alfred Blue has taken the first-team reps so far. Blue managed just 3.1 yards per carry on 169 carries as a rookie out of LSU, most of which came when Foster was out. For perspective, Foster averaged 4.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 3.7. He’s an interior chugger, a big body with lots of knee action and leg drive but not much wiggle or burst out of cuts. His competition is Eagles castoff Chris Polk and Jaguars castoff Jonathan Grimes. Because the team has a strong offensive line (more on them later), there is a chance for a reasonable amount of success on the ground. But it won’t possibly come close to what Foster offers in 21 carries a game. Houston has to hope Foster returns before Halloween and Blue & Co. are adequate placeholders. Gulp. 

3. What’s going on in the middle of the defense?

Houston made waves when it cut starting strong safety D.J. Swearinger over the summer. Many--including some in the locker room--applauded the decision to sever ties with the hotheaded Swearinger, who wildly lacked discipline on the field and defiantly refused to take responsibility for his numerous missed assignments and stupid penalties.

Swearinger was part of the problem on the defense. Unfortunately, the Texans don’t appear to have any acceptable solution at hand. They also let Kendrick Lewis depart as the other starting safety, and he was a solid starter. That only exacerbates the problem.

Newcomer Rahim Moore is an acceptable replacement for Lewis. They are similar as adequate starters, guys who can fill a role as long as they’re not asked to do too much. In fact, they posted similar Pro Football Focus grades, though they have divergent plusses and minuses:

 

Overall (rank)

Run Grade

Cover Grade

QB Rating vs.

Tackles

Rahim Moore

0.3 (46th)

-3.6

2.5

101.1

43

Kendrick Lewis

1.6 (39th)

3.8

-2.6

69.3

61

The other safety? The initial depth chart has Stevie Brown on top. That’s a nice sign for a guy who has been signed and waived by four different teams a total of eight times in four years and finished two of those years on IR. It’s not a ringing endorsement of guys like Eddie Pleasant or 2014 Mr. Irrelevant Lonnie Ballantine. Brown is a good tackler and aggressive run defender, but durability and range issues limit his potential. All these guys are at least one spot higher than they should be on an NFL depth chart.

There are issues at linebacker too. Brian Cushing has gone from impact force to average player at inside backer thanks to repeated injuries and PED suspensions. Justin Tuggle struggled in his first extensive action a year ago, unable to read or get off blocks well. He should get better with the stability and experience, and he’s well-liked and respected in the locker room. Akeem Dent was underwhelming in his first Houston season as the top reserve.

Then there’s Benardrick McKinney. The second-round pick from Mississippi State was a bit of an enigma as both a college player and a prospect. McKinney is the guy you want leading the team off the bus, but he is high-cut and played too tall and stiff for the Bulldogs. Then again, MSU asked him to do more than what he will manning the inside next to Cushing and/or Tuggle. He offers real intrigue as an interior pass rusher or even lining up outside in nickel packages. There is a lot to work with in McKinney but it’s hard to find one thing he will hang his hat on in his first year. I do trust LB Coach Mike Vrabel, who was a similar type of talent, to help him succeed. It just might not be this year.  

One aspect which helps the Texans is the strong run support from corners Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson. First-round pick Kevin Johnson is also a tenacious run defender despite being slightly built. It’s a nice trio which has a lot of all-around talent. That eases the burden on the safeties. 

4. Will the offensive line come together?

There is real talent up front in Houston, but it doesn’t always congeal into a great unit. If the offense is to step up, the line has to as well.

Duane Brown is a bedrock left tackle, one of the most athletic in the game today. He’s exceptional at football geometry and few tackles pick up the perimeter blitz more effectively. He’s not a consistent people mover as a run blocker, but that’s not his biggest job function. Right guard Brandon Brooks is an exceptional people mover, and that is his primary job. The hulking Brooks really came into his own in 2014. Brooks had always been a snowplow in the run game, but his pass protection was iffy. He cleaned that up in his third season, cutting his QB pressures in half and doing a better job of staying engaged with pass rushers. It wouldn’t surprise me if Brooks winds up getting some All-Pro votes this year.

Those two spots are fine. It’s the rest of the line where concern rises.

Right tackle Derek Newton, like Brooks to his left, has steadily improved with more experience. He and Brooks work well together, notably in the run game. It’s when Newton gets left on an island where he runs into issues. To his credit he didn’t allow many sacks (2) but he’s in “recovery block” mode way too much, beaten off the first step by speedy outside rushers. That’s more of a problem now with the decline in mobility at quarterback. Yet Newton is not much of a worry in the grand scheme.

I have real concerns over center, where Ben Jones slides from left guard to replace Chris Myers. Jones was adequate at guard but he’s not nearly as quick as the veteran Myers, who is unsigned and remains an option if Jones struggles in the preseason. Most folks remember Jones from his salad days at Alabama, but it’s worth noting center was his worst position for the Crimson Tide. He’s got the brains to make all the line calls but Jones just isn’t on athletic par with what most teams desire in the pivot nowadays.

It would help my confidence in Jones if I trusted his left guard, but after watching Xavier Su’a-Filo struggle mightily in his limited audition as a rookie I just can’t do it. I liked the UCLA strongman as a prospect, and his story is far from written after just one (truly awful) start. Normally the left guard is the better of the pass protectors. Su’a-Filo just doesn’t move his feet well and struggles to stay engaged or control the action as a result. Houston is quite limited athletically at both left guard and center. There is certainly upside with the young guard, and he can ameliorate a lot of my concerns with a strong preseason.

Improving the cohesion in run blocking will be an important development. Brooks and Newton are quite good at it, but the rest of the line was often three (or four with the tight ends) guys looking disjointed and unscripted. Ranking 23rd in yards per carry with Arian Foster is just not acceptable. Without him? The line has to do better. The potential is there, though the lack of any proven depth is alarming.

5. Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer or does it really matter?

Houston started three quarterbacks last season and played a fourth as well. One year earlier the Texans trotted out two starters and a third QB who played almost a full game, none of whom made the cut for 2014. That’s right--the Texans have used seven quarterbacks in the last two seasons. The most effective of this revolving outhouse door was Ryan Fitzpatrick, currently backing up Geno Smith in New York, one of a select handful of teams with arguably bigger QB problems than Houston.

Fans might long for the glory days of Fitzpatrick and his beard. Even though he had an uncanny knack for making cringe-worthy mistakes at the worst possible times, he was generally accurate (63.1%) and wasn’t afraid to attack down the field; Fitzpatrick’s 7.96 yards per attempt ranked fourth in the league, better than both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. He threw 17 TDs in 194 completions, with 8 INTs.

Now O’Brien turns to either Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer. He had both as backups behind Tom Brady in New England, so he is eminently familiar with their skills. Strangely, he still wanted either of them, let alone both…

Mallett was the least effective of the five who have started in the last two years, worse even than Case Keenum. He’s the poster child for those who argue arm strength doesn’t make a good NFL QB. Mallett is notable for his rocket arm, attached to his impressive 6’6”, 240 pound frame. When he can use his long legs to step into a throw it really is a thing of beauty, a tight spiral crisply cutting through the air. In that vacuum, it’s easy to make a case for Ryan Mallett as a potential great NFL starter.

Alas, NFL games are not played in vacuums. And the rest of Mallett’s game belongs in the dirty canister of your mom’s old Hoover. He’s perhaps the least athletic or agile player in the NFL regardless of position. His long limbs create serious problems when he doesn’t have a perfectly clean pocket. When he can’t take his giant step into a throw, his mechanics go out the proverbial window. He rushes his motion, saws off his follow-through, short-steps his launch platform and immediately ducks into self-preservation mode upon release. As a result, his throws often wind up fluttering, wobbly and off target. He abandons downfield reads far too quickly as a way to avoid any potential pressure. His YPA of 5.3 on 75 throws last year is over a full yard below the 31st-ranked QB in that metric last year (Josh McCown).

Having said all that, I’d still start Mallett over Brian Hoyer. Houston is Hoyer’s fifth team since the start of the 2012 season, when New England unceremoniously dumped him in lieu of keeping Mallett. Hoyer teased Cleveland fans by starting the 2013 season with three straight wins before a truly gruesome knee injury ended his first campaign in his hometown. The Browns traded up to get Johnny Manziel regardless, convinced the local hero just wasn’t the long-term answer. While Manziel flopped miserably, the Browns weren’t wrong in their discernment of Hoyer’s skills.

The Michigan State product doesn’t have Mallett’s arm talent. He might not even have Case Keenum’s modest arm talent. When he does uncork the fastball, Hoyer loses accuracy like a drunkard trying to use his GPS in Danish. Only his Spartans successor Drew Stanton had a lower completion percentage amongst qualifiers than Hoyer’s 55.3% in 2014. The nadir came in a devastating 25-24 Week 13 loss to Indy where the Cleveland QB was 13-for-30 for 136 yards and failed to throw a touchdown for the third game in a row. He completed just 20 of 50 in a loss in Houston a month earlier, including going 1-for-11 on third down. The Browns finished dead last in third down conversion percentage at 29% but that figure was just 26.4% under Hoyer. Houston was 22nd at 38.7%, and that figure was 40.6% under Mallett including a 6-for-11 performance throwing in that same game. Hoyer then pouted like a spoiled little brat when he got benched.

It appears Hoyer has the early lead, as he is willing to take more chances down the field and can extend plays a little with his mobility. The thing is, Mallett will never play behind a better line. This is his one great chance to prove he belongs. Hoyer won’t be here longer than one second after the Texans bring in someone better, be it a veteran free agent or a fifth-round draft pick next April. I’ll pay obligatory lip service here to Tom Savage, last year’s 4th round pick who has a big arm but Hoyer’s spotty accuracy crossed with Mallett’s decided lack of athleticism and pocket presence.

It’s not a pretty situation. If O’Brien can somehow mold even the 24th-best QB performance in the league this fall out of the Mallett/Hoyer combo, the Texans are likely a playoff team. It would confirm him as one of the greatest young coaching minds around. It would also prove that pigs can in fact fly.

Forecast: The goal is the playoffs after narrowly missing out in 2014. That means somehow extracting 10 wins, at minimum, from a schedule that provides real opportunity. Non-divisional opponents this year are the AFC East and NFC South, with tough road games in the Miami heat and the Buffalo cold. It’s critical for Houston to start strongly. They need to be no worse than 3-1 heading into the Week 5 Thursday Night showdown with the reigning AFC South champion Colts. There are several winnable games in a row following that game and the mini-bye which follows. Hopefully Foster returns around that time and provides a shot in the arm.

Whether that shot will carry them to the playoffs depends in large part on the quarterback situation. As long as Hoyer or Mallett can effectively manage the offense and not lose games on their own, a good receiving corps and tough defense can keep this team right in the mix in the wide-open AFC. I don’t have that level of confidence in either QB, however, certainly not without Foster for at least half the season. Houston ends up a disappointing 8-8 and a distant second in the AFC South.