2014 Record: 12-4, won NFC North, lost in NFC Championship Game

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 11

Overall: The Green Bay Packers have made the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons, including the last six with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Rodgers is the key ingredient to the long-lasting success, a masterful decision-maker who has played the position as well as anyone ever has over the last few years. He’s got two great weapons in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb and a strong running back in Eddie Lacy. General manager Ted Thompson has consistently scored with his draft decisions all over the offense, including a sturdy line where four of the five starters came to Green Bay as fourth-round picks.

The defense is headlined by outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers, though at this point both have greater name recognition than actual results. The young secondary is being counted upon to rise up and help cover for a front seven with the two notable LBs but little else to rely upon. Head coach Mike McCarthy will need better overall health and an unexpected contributor or two to help keep this from being a team involved in 35-31 shootouts every week.

As of Aug. 10, the Packers have the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl and Rodgers the lowest odds to win the MVP. It’s a testament to this organization that any wager against either happening is a bit of a sucker bet. The competition will be fierce but this is a franchise with lengthy experience winning big games. Anything less than another appearance in the NFC Championship game will-and should--be considered a major disappointment.

Five Questions

1. Just how great can this offense perform?

Any offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is going to be good. Rodgers is the best quarterback, and arguably the best all-around player at any position, in the NFL today. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate every year for his unearthly blend of arm strength, accuracy, intelligence, agility and chutzpah. He’s worked wonders with a below-average offensive line, meh running backs and wideouts without a lot of wattage. Now he doesn’t have to worry about any of those issues.

This Packers team has a pretty good O-line, an emerging star at running back and perhaps the best 1-2 punch at WR in the league. All 11 starters project to return from a year ago, and the 2014 Packers offense was excellent:

  • 2nd in points per game
  • 1st in points per play
  • 2nd in yards per pass attempt
  • 1st (tied) in yards per play
  • 3rd in 3rd down conversions
  • 9th (tied) in yards per carry

Last year was the best all-around offensive line Rodgers has ever played behind. While left tackle David Bakhtiari was shaky in pass protection in his second season (7 sacks allowed, 18 QB pressures, 9 penalties per Pro Football Focus), he did show improvement in technique over his rookie campaign. His run blocking also looked better even though the fine folks at PFF saw otherwise. Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang are rock solid at the guard spots, and rookie Corey Linsley stepped up nicely at center. All three interior guys bring toughness and power, and the trio quickly developed cohesion. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga is coming off his best season, even though he still whiffs on too many blocks for my liking. The sum is greater than the individual parts here, helped in pass protection by having the savvy, slippery Rodgers behind them.

Eddie Lacy proved the annual concerns about his relatively expansive waistline in the preseason were overblown. The second-year chugger from Alabama bagged 1140 yards at 4.7 per carry, breaking through arm tackles and showing nifty feet in tight areas. He finished strong, topping 90 yards in five of the final six games after breaking that barrier just once prior. His initial vision isn’t good but Lacy gets over it by being so hard to tackle.

The starting wideouts are fantastic together. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are both explosive athletes who run great routes and catch just about everything thrown near them. Nelson is great at creating space for himself on the margins of the field, while Cobb works similar magic inside. Together they caught 189 passes on 278 targets for 2806 yards and 25 TDs last season. Nelson’s 1519 yards ranked 4th and his 13 TDs ranked 2nd, with Cobb just one behind.

The intact starting 11 is the best offense in football, period. It’s conceivable they not only lead the league in scoring but challenge the NFL record for points in a season, set wen New England posted 589 in 2007. The current franchise record is 560 in 2011, and that year also set the Packers’ high-water mark for point differential at +201. Rodgers & Co. have ample potential to eclipse both those figures in 2015.

2. How well does the secondary come together?

The gradual overhaul of Green Bay’s defensive backfield continues. Longtime starter Tramon Williams is out at corner, as is occasional starter Davon House. Incoming rookies Damarious Randall and Quentin Rollins figure to see lots of action joining last year’s top pick Haha Clinton-Dix in the mix.

The starters appear set, and they appear relatively strong. Casey Hayward and Sam Shields will handle the outside corner duties, while Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett man the safety spots. Hayward is the gem, a savvy and rangy cover man who has primarily played in the slot. He has the athletic prowess to handle moving outside even though he’s smaller than ideal. The nice thing here is if he doesn’t transition to the outside well, Green Bay still can use him as a great slot nickel back. Shields is inconsistent without being a detriment in coverage. His speed saves him, though he does run past tackles too often for my liking.

The safeties figure to improve with a season together under their belts. Clinton-Dix (HHCD) improved his recognition and reaction time as his rookie year progressed, appearing more comfortable with the speed of the NFL game. If he learns to finish his hits and wrap up, HHCD has the potential to be an above-average safety even though his range is not optimal. Burnett is a run-stuffing specialist, very good at coming forward and attacking but woefully out of place in deeper coverage. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers generally remembers this but occasionally tempts fate and exposes him, as he did in the playoff win over Dallas. When used properly, this duo is perfectly adequate.

The rookies are quite intriguing. Randall played safety at Arizona State but the Packers are trying him out at corner. Rollins played corner at Miami OH but many draftniks (myself included) project him as a better NFL safety. The first-rounder is built for the slot but thus far Green Bay is deploying him as the top reserve outside guy. The second-rounder is big and leggy but is getting most of his work inside. Then again, nickel back Micah Hyde is built more for outside duty too as a hybrid safety/corner. If Hyde can stay in that role it helps the depth at safety, where there is next to nothing behind HHCD and Burnett.

If the rookies are ready, and that’s a real question, the cornerback depth is better than it’s been in years. It’s important to temper expectations on Rollins, who played just one year of college football, but he has the potential to be a playmaking force. With Randall changing positions it is a given he will struggle too, and many analysts (though not me) thought the Packers took him at least a round too early. The NFC North is loaded with formidable wideouts and gunslinging QBs, so this group must come together quickly. Keep an eye on blazing rookie UDFA Ladarius Gunter, who has impressed in camp and can fly for a bigger corner. 

3. Will the special teams improve?

This goes far beyond Brandon Bostick’s misadventure in the NFC Championship game, though that is an apt microcosm of Green Bay’s special teams issues a year ago. “Special” was not a word ever used in relation to how the Packers’ third unit performed.

McCarthy duly noted the struggles and has declared he will spend more time and individual attention to the problem. That’s good; they need it. The Packers ranked 23rd overall in special teams grading by Pro Football Focus and the specialists return intact.

Kicker Mason Crosby has had one strong season in the last three, a 2013 campaign sandwiched between a terrible one (’12) and a subpar one (’14). No kicker has missed more field goals over that time than Crosby and his 23--a testament to the loyalty of McCarthy as most kickers performing that poorly don’t typically stick around. It would make more sense if he were an asset on kickoffs, but Crosby has ranked in the bottom 10 in touchback percentage in each of the last two years. He’s essentially unchallenged in camp, which means the Packers appear comfortable being near the bottom at kicker.

Tim Mashtay started 2014 in great form but regressed badly as the weather turned. A blocked punt in the Philadelphia game in Week 11 seemed to have sent the 6th-year pro into a tailspin; his averages from that game on declined by more than 10% on gross average and more than 15% on net average. He too is unchallenged in camp (the Packers waived Cody Mandell as I wrote this on Aug. 10), and among the reasons cited is his success as Crosby’s holder. Yes, the Packers justify sticking with an average-at-best punter because he’s the preferred holder for their below-average kicker. Apparently they forgot Mashtay botching an extra point hold…

The return and coverage teams were okay. Green Bay was in the dead middle of the pack in average starting field position, both achieved and allowed. However, coverage team fixtures Jarrett Bush and Brad Jones are now gone. Fortunately the Packers saw fit to match Oakland’s offer sheet for top tackler Sean Richardson, who doubles as the backup strong safety.

They must replace kick returner DuJuan Harris. Primary punt returner Micah Hyde figures to assume the role, though the team drafted Ty Montgomery in the third round more for his return prowess than his receiving acumen. It’s hard to translate collegiate return success rates to the NFL, so this is more of an unknown than a problem. Jeff Janis could also see some action if Hyde proves too valuable to the defense to risk on returns. Cobb is probably the most skilled return man on the roster but they’re (rightly) not risking his slight body on special teams duty.

4. Is there a playoff hangover?

Green Bay advanced to the NFC Championship game and was within a minute of advancing to the Super Bowl. Yet the playoffs by and large did not go well for the Packers, notably Mike McCarthy. It took a controversial (and correct) officiating call in the Dallas game for the Packers to escape in the divisional round. A week later McCarthy’s coaching style made Ann Coulter seem liberal, and his overcautious decisions cost his team dearly.

McCarthy is a proven winner and he clearly has command of his team, but even some ardent Packer backers have grumbled about facets of McCarthy Ball for years. The inexplicably predictable John Kuhn fullback dives on 3rd and short, which fans of every other team love because it takes the ball away from anyone on the offense who can possibly hurt them. His hesitation to challenge some plays paired with his exuberance to throw the red flag when it obviously will fail. Taking the air out of the ball offensively too early in the second half.

Now that it absolutely cost them a berth in the Super Bowl, there is more pressure on the coach as he enters his 10th season at the helm. If the offense somehow falters early, that strange yet tangible feeling of “what’s going wrong here?” can creep in. Aaron Rodgers will never lose confidence in himself, so that’s not a concern. But if the Packers drop a close game or two early on, some might question if they’re doomed to repeat history or if McCarthy is more a part of the problem than the solution. I know, it doesn’t make rational sense. But football players and teams aren’t always rational entities. These things can and do happen, and tough losses in playoff game are often a progenitor of that sort of self-doubt and malaise. 

5. Any potential Achilles heels?

There is no question this Packers roster is designed to win right now. Aside from the aforementioned special teams and concerns with the secondary, what else can trip them up?

The first thing which comes to mind is tight end, where the Packers are desperately hoping for rapid development from Richard Rogers in his second season. Veteran Andrew Quarless is a completely nondescript backup TE, neither great nor terrible at anything. Green Bay would love to see more from Rogers than the 20 catches and three TDs he produced as a third-round rookie from Cal. It would help if his blocking upticked from “atrocious”, but that’s not likely. This is the weakest position on the roster by a wide margin; none of their tight ends would even make the roster in Detroit or Indianapolis.

Tight end becomes more of an issue because of the other main potential pitfall on the offense, wide receiver depth. Davante Adams is expected to rise up as the third wideout. Expectations are sky high in Green Bay and in many fantasy football circles, but Adams remains raw and unproven. He caught 38 passes over his rookie season, though he topped two receptions in a game just twice in the final 10 games. His physical potential is very good, perhaps too much so for his current skill level.

Behind Adams the picture is fairly bleak. Jeff Janis is the next man up after catching just two passes as a rookie from Saginaw Valley State. Jared Abbrederis has more polish but can’t stay on the field, unfortunately. Montgomery is a return man more than he’s a wideout; he struggled with basic route concepts and paddles for hands at Stanford. Like Janis, he’s a much more impressive athletic specimen than receiver. If Nelson or Cobb, who missed 10 games in 2013, go down for any extended period, the Packers could be a in a lot of trouble.

This is a given, but if Rodgers misses time once again the situation is bleak. Scott Tolzein appears a more capable backup than Matt Flynn, but that’s not saying a lot. They won’t win more than a quarter of games where Rodgers misses more than a quarter. Given the gimpy state Rodgers ended last season and the collarbone one year earlier, his durability is an uneasy question for the Packers.

Inside linebacker remains the central issue on defense. Moving Clay Matthews inside patched the problem for a bit, though teams figured out how to take advantage after a few weeks. Matthews remains exceptional when attacking the backfield, but putting him in the middle exposes him as a run defender and often forces him to do things away from the line of scrimmage. That fundamentally detracts from the top skills of the top player on D, and that’s just not a smart way to operate long-term. They’ve used Matthews both inside and outside in camp, and that’s much more prudent. It would be fantastic if someone like Nate Palmer or Sam Barrington stepped up and proved capable of being even a worthy backup ILB, let alone easing the pressure on Matthews to have to essentially cover two positions.

Matthews must get his sacks, as the rest of the pass rush is scattershot. Julius Peppers played well in 2014, notably in the playoffs. His seven sacks finished second on the team. That number needs to be 10 or more, though it’s tough to ask him to amp it up at 35 years old and increasingly ineffective on run defense. The Packers have depth and durability issues with their other OLBs…

 

Neal was graded out by PFF as the worst Packers defender last year, and it was his pass rush score of an abominable -14.0 which dragged him down. Being injured isn’t going to help. The depth chart all over the defensive front is thinner than ideal. Guys they’ve drafted recently like Khyri Thornton, Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy have not panned out as expected, while this year’s fourth-rounder Jake Ryan battled numerous injuries in college at Michigan. B.J. Raji is enigmatic and coming off a missed season. Letroy Guion is okay at defensive tackle but will miss the first three games on league suspension.

As long as Matthews plays 16 games, Peppers doesn’t show his age too much and the line somehow keeps the Packers in the middle of the pack defensively, they should be okay. But there is genuine concern about all three of those. Keep in mind this was a below-average run defense a year ago and they haven’t added anyone to help improve that facet. The offense is going to be great. It might need to be. 

Forecast: Green Bay is the odds-on favorite to win both the NFC and the Super Bowl. It’s not a big margin, but most sports books list the Packers with the best chance to accomplish both. It’s easy to see why. The offense is absolutely loaded with a perennial MVP candidate running the show. They’ve made several playoff runs with this core group, and expectations are higher than simply making it back once again.

Their division is a tough one. Even though Chicago has fallen, Minnesota is a legit up-and-comer and Detroit still looks formidable after making the playoffs last year. The non-divisional schedule is no picnic either, with Seattle, Dallas and the speedy defenses of the AFC West. Green Bay will have to earn those double-digit wins this year, and they’ll do so with a more top-heavy depth chart than in recent times. I’m not crazy about the margin for error, but as long as the key pieces stay on the field this is a very, very good team. Green Bay finishes 12-4 and wins the NFC North on the back of leading the NFL in scoring behind MVP Aaron Rodgers.