Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch

Tier 2: CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy

Tier 3: Justin Forsett, Melvin Gordon, Alfred Morris, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Frank Gore, Todd Gurley, Latavius Murray

Tier 4: Lamar Miller, Jonathan Stewart, Joique Bell, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, Joseph Randle, TJ Yeldon, Tevin Coleman, Doug Martin

Tier 5: Giovani Bernard, CJ Spiller, LaGarrette Blount, Tre Mason, Shane Vereen, Christopher Ivory

Tier 6: Denard Robinson, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah, Arian Foster, Alfred Blue, Isaiah Crowell, Bishop Sankey, Fred Jackson, Duke Johnson, Reggie Bush

Tier 7: Jerick McKinnon, Andre Williams, Devonta Freeman, Montee Ball, DeAngelo Williams, Knile Davis, David Cobb, Terrance West 

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP. 

Analysis 

We’ve got many familiar faces taking residence in tier 1. Le’Veon Bell would have been the hands down number 1 guy if he was not suspended for the first two games. But with his suspension, a healthy debate can be had for the top guy. I lean towards Peterson, but don’t have any qualms if you go with someone else from that group.

The tier 2 guys have the potential to match their tier 1 counterparts, but come with additional issues. Will CJ Anderson and Jeremy Hill be able to sustain their performances from the end of last season? Will DeMarco Murray stay healthy? Arian Foster was initially earmarked to lead the tier 2 group, but with his groin injury, he falls all the way to tier 6, where Alfred Blue joins him. Matt Forte could be slowing down a bit, and similar concern with LeSean McCoy, along with how well McCoy will perform in a new system.

The tier 3 group oozes with potential as well, starting with Justin Forsett and including top rookies Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley. Depending on health, Gurley may need to move up the board a bit – or a lot. A healthy Gurley would be straddling the tier 2/tier 3 line.

Venturing into tier 4, there’s a mix of injury concerns and inexperience - Tevin Coleman and TJ Yeldon are intriguing rookies in the group, and could potentially return RB2 value. But they are risky. The guys listed in tier 5 and below have some combination of concerns including injury, time share, 3rd down only designation and other issues which keep them as ideal backups for your team, but not starters.

So what should your RB strategy look like? There are defensible arguments all over the spectrum, including the two extremes – grab RBs with top 2 picks or go with WRs with top 2 picks, then cobble together RBs. I suggest your strategy meets in the middle – grab one anchor RB, then take care of WRs, etc. and go for volume with multiple high upside RBs later on.

Of course you need to be smart about your draft board, so if you’re drafting towards the end of the first round, for example, don’t pigeonhole yourself into drafting a RB if there’s a WR you strongly prefer sitting there for you. But my ideal scenario would be grabbing one of the top RBs, and drafting 2-3 higher upside RBs later on to compete for your RB2 position. As in most years, there will be guys from the lower tiers who end up providing starting caliber value, but nailing down who exactly will do so remains the challenge.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Jeremy Hill: Jeremy Hill came into his rookie year last season as Giovani Bernard’s backup. One injury to Bernard later, Hill now sits atop the RB depth chart, albeit he will continue to cede some carries to Bernard. Hill exploded against the Jaguars in his NFL first start, which was near the midway point in the Bengals’ schedule. In Hill’s nine starts, he rushed for 147 yards or more in four of them, and finished the season north of 1,000 yards, with 9 TDs and a 5.1 yard average per carry. Hill’s the real deal, and should go towards the back half of the first round, rather than the second round.

Justin Forsett: Wrote about Justin Forsett more extensively in my Burning Questions – Sleepers/Busts article, so won’t repeat everything in that article. Forsett fits the Ravens offense well, including in the passing game. Expect Forsett to continue his performance from last season as he took over the starting role. Forsett would be a fine selection in the mid second round, rather than the third round where he’s being selected now.

Latavius Murray: After years of futility, the Raiders appear headed in the right direction. While the addition of Amari Cooper will be the most exciting fantasy related story for the Raiders, the emergence of Latavius Murray could be a close second. Murray got the nation’s attention with a 4 carry, 112 yard, 2 TD performance against the Chiefs on Thursday night football, and Murray heads into the season as the Raiders’ unquestioned starting RB. The improved passing game and retooled offensive line will open the field up further for Murray, and Murray will capitalize as a solid RB2.

Tevin Coleman: While Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley receive the most hype from the rookie class, and rightfully so, don’t sleep on Tevin Coleman. Coleman’s in competition with Devonta Freeman for the starting RB spot, and I expect Coleman’s talent to win out. Last season, Freeman didn’t show much of anything to distinguish himself. Coleman has more athleticism and a better (i.e. bigger) build to take the punishment that lead backs need to take. The O-line remains a concern in Atlanta, so there will be obstacles to overcome, but Coleman has the type of talent to push for RB2 caliber numbers in his rookie season.