2014 Record: 6-10

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall: 2014 was an off year for the New York Giants. Tom Coughlin’s troops somehow posted two separate 3-game win streaks but could not win another game. They started slowly as the entire offense adjusted to a new scheme, dealing with ravaging injuries at the skill positions. As Eli Manning settled impressively into the quicker pace and Odell Beckham Jr. announced his rookie presence with authority, the offense perked up. New York scored at least three offensive TDs in each of its final six games.

The defense and special teams just couldn’t generate any sort of consistency. Issues at linebacker and safety hampered both of those units, and neither appears to have much resolution. The Giants are counting on better health and internal improvement to catch up in the NFC East. It’s not a bad strategy, as there is enough talent here to get back to the playoffs with good health and better fortune. The continuity should pay off, but it’s a dangerous gamble for Coughlin and GM Jerry Reese, both of whom have dealt with amplified calls for their heads. Reese in particular desperately needs more impact draft hits, and he needs them quickly.

The veteran leadership and top-end firepower on offense give these Giants a chance to make some noise. For that to happen, the offensive line must progress quickly and the youngsters on defense must step up. The core of this team remains quite solid. Now it’s time for the ancillary cast to prove they can rise to the challenge and return to the playoffs for the first time since capturing the Super Bowl title after the 2011 season. 

Five Questions

1. Was largely standing pat on offense a good idea?

New York opted to make only a couple of changes in offensive personnel. First-round pick Ereck Flowers is the biggest fish. The giant rookie from Miami will be counted upon right away at left tackle. The only other newcomer of any note is right tackle Marshall Newhouse, a free agent signing last with Cincinnati but best-known for his days in Green Bay who is ideally a swing tackle but is expected to handle the spot opposite Flowers.

Here’s what I wrote about Flowers in the draft process:

He has some major consistency issues with his technique. Often exposes his chest and catch blocks, and can be slow and low with his hands. Flowers has major balance issues when he’s engaged and his arms aren’t fully extended because he leans into his man and doesn’t keep his feet moving. He also has a tendency to block with his head down and loses track of what’s happening around him. Shows signs of lacking mental toughness and discipline on the field. Probably a right tackle only in the NFL.

He might wind up being a pretty good NFL player, but asking Flowers to protect Eli Manning’s blind side as a rookie is a potential disaster.

Newhouse played sparingly in his one year in Cincinnati, but when given a larger role he was abysmal. He played over half the offensive snaps in four games, Weeks 10-13. In those contests Newhouse managed a Pro Football Focus score of -12.6 at right tackle. Out of desperation the Bengals gave him another shot in Week 15 but he was yanked after the first quarter. Now he’s the shining hope at protecting Eli Manning, who is one of the least mobile QBs in the league. Manning also fumbles at a high rate (seven in each of the last two years) and his 41 INTs over the past two seasons is an NFL high. That’s not exactly handling pressure all that well, but now the Giants have entrusted his edge protection to a rookie who had pass protection issues in the ACC and a below-average journeyman backup. They do have a solid right tackle on the roster in Geoff Schwartz, but he’s playing right guard because John Jerry is awful.

New York did little at running back, adding third-down role player Shane Vereen from the Patriots to the mix with Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams. This looks better on paper than on the field, where all three have struggled with either injuries or ineffectiveness.

Vereen has caught 99 passes the last two years, and that’s where he brings value to the Giants. His bounce/burst running style worked well for New England last year too, and with the run blocking potential of this offensive line he could continue that success. At worst he’s valuable depth for a team which has had major problems keeping RBs on the field in recent times. Jennings is part of that oft-injured parade, as the former Raider and Jaguar has missed at least 4 games in three of the last four seasons. Second-year back Andre Williams wound up being the lead dog last year, but his 3.3 yards per carry reflected a lack of quick vision and acceleration. When the first hole wasn’t there, and the interior of the line had problems creating this, Williams just wasn’t creative or twitchy enough to make anything positive happen.

They also stood pat at tight end, relying on internal development with guys like Larry Donnell, Daniel Fells and Adrien Robinson. Donnell sparked the offense with early athletic flourishes, but he sloughed off considerably after the first quarter of the season. Four of his five TDs came in the first four weeks, and Donnell’s poor blocking makes him a detriment if he’s not producing 5+ catches a game. Fells is a blocking specialist who has caught just one pass which flew more than 15 yards in the last four years. At least his blocking adds value.

Young linemen Weston Richburg and Jordan Pugh should both improve, especially considering both are now in their most natural positions. Pugh kicks inside to left guard after misadventures at right tackle in his first two campaigns. Richburg moves to center after struggling at left guard in his rookie season. I was extremely bullish on Richburg’s potential in the pivot, and the duo should upgrade the interior pass protection right away.

2. What happens with Jason Pierre-Paul?

The face of New York’s defense is now a major question mark after a fireworks accident forced doctors to amputate his right index finger. JPP also suffered severe burns on his hands and arms, and that’s not an easy malady to recover from quickly. Given the veteran pass rusher was unsigned after being hit with the franchise player tag, the timing could not have been worse.

Presuming JPP and the Giants reach a contract agreement (reports are this could happen even before you read this), the question turns to his recovery and effectiveness. There is no track record for defensive ends with nine fingers and skin grafts. He’s coming off a season where he bagged 12.5 sacks, but managed just 8.5 in the prior two seasons while handling the right defensive end spot. JPP finished strong, recording at least one sack in each of the final five games. His run defense has been a consistent, steady force throughout his career.

How well will he be able to shed blocks with a missing finger? Will his leverage and power be too disrupted? So-called “experts” from both the football and medical worlds have offered divergent opinions here. It’s debatable, and until we see what happens on the field it’s all speculative. The Giants desperately need him to be at his havoc-wreaking best, but his run defense on the edge might be just as important. In short, if JPP isn’t even 90% of his old self the defense is going to suffer. While I like Damontre Moore and rookie Owa Odighizuwa on the edge, and signing George Selvie adds needed depth, none can replace the complete game of Pierre-Paul. Talented Robert Ayers can take over the sack mantle in his hybrid DE/DT role and that would help ease the pressure, but make no mistake: this defense needs Jason Pierre-Paul to be great for the unit to be even average.

3. What does Odell Beckham Jr. do for an encore?

By now the image of Beckham’s spectacular one-handed, over-the-shoulder stab is forever emblazoned in every NFL fan’s eyeballs. It was the icing on a very tasty cake baked up by the dynamic rookie from LSU. Beckham caught 91 of his 130 targets in just 12 games after missing the first four weeks with a bum hamstring. No player topped his 1305 yards or 12 TDs over the final 12 games. That outburst won him Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Following that lightning will not be easy. Foremost, a healthy Victor Cruz will take away some of those targets. Cruz was the speedy downfield threat whom Beckham was supposed to complement, not the other way around. A knee injury in Week 6 changed all that, as they were on the field together for less than two games. Early reports on Cruz are positive, but there are still doubts as to if he’ll be ready and full-speed by the time the season starts in September. It will be interesting to see which banana gets the most sun and if the other will handle second banana status positively. Thus far the duo have done a great job spinning it positively, but there are egos involved here. On plays where Beckham is wide and Cruz inside him in the slot, competition for Manning’s passes could scuttle what sure looks like a defensive matchup nightmare.

The Giants use three wideouts as a base offense (over 80% of snaps in 2014), and finding that third target with both Cruz and Beckham will also be interesting. Rueben Randle, like Beckham an LSU product, had some success in that role a year ago with 71 catches. His size and strength make him a nice fit in the role, though he’s not very aggressive with the ball in the air and doesn’t create space for himself as you would expect. They don’t really have anyone else to step up, and that’s a real issue as there are durability issues with the top dogs. Preston Parker (36 catches, 418 yards) is functional in the slot but represents a major downgrade from the elite Cruz. Corey Washington and Dwayne Harris are more valuable as special teams core guys than wideouts at this point, and youngsters Juron Criner (who I really liked coming out of Arizona) and Geremy Davis are completely unproven.

Beckham is once again fighting a hamstring, this time on the other (right) leg. Missing yet another camp will not help his development. Yes, he’s a natural fit for Bob McAdoo’s passing offense. Yes, he’s the reigning top rookie and will be one of the first three wideouts taken in just about every fantasy draft. Yes, he quickly earned Manning’s trust and the respect of defensive backs for his freakishly sticky hands and body control. Yet I have some concern about his encore act. Perhaps it’s unfounded, and for the sake of Giants fans I hope it is. But even equaling that amazing rookie productivity will not be easy. How well Beckham handles the inevitable adversity will determine if he’s a perennial All-Pro or a flashy next-tier talent. Either way New York is in great hands, but the difference between those two levels is the difference between a pretty good offense and a great one. Tom Coughlin needs the latter to get this team into the playoffs again.

4. Can the middle of the defense step up?

No team allowed more yards per carry than these Giants a year ago, ceding almost five full yards every time the opponent ran the ball. Much of that deficiency involved being weak beyond the point of initial attack, though the defensive line was no great force against the run either.

New York made changes up front. Veterans Mike Patterson and Matthias Kiwanuka, the two weak links versus the run a year ago, are both gone. That means increased time for Jonathan Hankins and Jay Bromley inside. Hankins was quietly outstanding in his second season, emerging as a very good run defender while also racking up 8 sacks. He’s very agile but also stout at the point of attack. Bromley held his own as a third-round rookie, and I like the concept of platooning him as the third tackle with Ayers. They make a run stuff/pass rush special look next to the underrated Hankins.

Right now the plan appears to have Cullen Jenkins playing end, but consider that more insurance on JPP than a long-term status quo. Like Ayers, he’s got the build of a hybrid end/tackle. Unlike Ayers, he cannot get off a block, though some of that is attributable to dealing with injuries a year ago. Jenkins is a smart veteran and should be better if he’s healthy. He needs to be, as Markus Kuhn or Jets castoff Kenrick Ellis are likely not the answer inside for more than a handful of plays.

Linebacker is where things get real dicey. JT Thomas was a weak link in Jacksonville, but now he’s the starting Will backer here. Jon Beason will try once again to man the middle, but a nasty toe injury which wiped out almost all of his 2014 lingers on. Expectations are low for the former star in Carolina, who has managed to play just 24 games in the last four seasons. Jameel McClain couldn’t handle the middle gig in his stead, a liability in both run and pass defense.

The real hope is in second-year Devon Kennard, who impressed in limited duty as a rookie. He’s stout at the point of attack and reads plays quickly from his SAM spot. Every Giants media source talks up Kennard, with good reason. He should be quite good as a blitzer and attack dog linebacker. Try-hard Mark Herzlich had some positive moments a year ago but his limited range and overzealous nature are often exposed. He’ll be the primary outside backup, likely pushing McClain even further down the depth chart. Veterans Victor Butler and Jonathan Casillas offer more to special teams than the base defense, though Butler has proven a reliable special teamer over the years in his numerous stops.

Then there is the safety position. Drafting Landon Collins in the first round will help. It can’t help but help. While I was not a fan of the Alabama product being drafted so highly, he does have NFL-caliber skills and plays with passion and intelligence. He’s here for his run defense, and Collins can definitely shore up the Giants in that regard. Collins is very adept at crashing the run and filling the hole with strength and balance. He’s at his best moving forward, and that’s what the Giants need. His deep range in pass protection is worrisome, as is his tightness in changing directions and his propensity to stare into the backfield and lose track of his coverage assignment(s).

Nat Behre and Cooper Taylor are battling for the other safety spot. They could not be more different physically. Behre is compact at 5’10” in cleats and 190 soaking wet, while Taylor is built like a quarterback at 6’4” and 230. They’re both far more suited to helping the run than the pass. Behre actually played as a de facto LB for San Diego State, while Taylor is more of a nickel LB than a true safety. Taylor missed all of last year on IR with a foot issue after missing half his rookie campaign with shoulder problems. He missed a year of college ball with a heart ailment. Durability is an obvious concern, though he has impressed in preseason and stood out during Shrine Game practices after his Richmond tenure. Behre has the fan-favorite attitude, a full-throttle hitter with a great bite/size of dog ratio. He can’t cover at all, and that makes new Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s job interesting. Hard-hitting rookie Mykkele Thompson is also a run-stuffing specialist of a safety. Whomever emerges as the starter opposite Collins will help that ugly run defense number, but it’s likely to exacerbate the 30^th ranking in opposing yards per completion. The corners are good, perhaps very good in coverage, but they’re not miracle workers.

5. How far can Manning and Coughlin carry them?

It’s hard to believe, but Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin are both entering their 12th seasons in New York. The franchise quarterback and head coach have found great success together, including two Super Bowl titles. Coughlin’s gruff but trustworthy demeanor plays nicely off Manning’s aloof intensity.

Last year was arguably Manning’s best. It took him a little time but once he mastered McAdoo’s aerial attack, Eli was fantastic. Yes, he still threw too many INTs (14) and took some awful sacks. But the zip was evident in his throws, the confidence brimming in his body language. Getting such a revelatory receiver in OBJ certainly helped.

On the flip side, last year was not Coughlin’s finest. He’s mellowed some over time, but still knows when the dial up the intensity. Unfortunately his game plans seemed stale and over the heads of his injury-depleted corps. Pushed buttons didn’t respond like they have in the past.

Manning could be even better at 34, provided both Cruz and Beckham play 16 games together. The quick, timing-based passing attack suits him well, and he’s got a year of experience in the system. Throwing 35 TDs and topping 4,500 yards are eminently possible. If he’s not threatening the league lead in INTs once again, he’s a dark horse MVP candidate. Really.

Coughlin needs a rebound year…badly. Coaches don’t typically survive 5-year playoff droughts in one location. Coaches who are pushing 70 years old? Let’s just say it’s win now time for Coughlin. If anyone tells you he’s lost his players or his ability to relate to the younger element, you have my permission to loudly and publicly guffaw at their ignorance. That’s not my concern with Coughlin and this team. The worry is that other teams have caught onto his M.O. and Coughlin just doesn’t have the depth of talent to mix it up with this group.

That’s where Manning comes in. He’s the wild card, a two-time Super Bowl winner who has proven he can be periodically fantastic. Last year was tantalizing. If his upward arc continues, I can see an invigorated Coughlin being the steady, forceful hand needed to help steer the team through a difficult schedule and the inevitable adversity. If Manning falls back, I can just as easily see Coughlin reading the writing on the wall and hoping for posterity wins down the stretch of what would be his--and Jerry Reese’s--final season in New York. If it is, hopefully Giants fans remember him fondly because he’s been a great coach for a long time.

Forecast: These Giants are a cloudy forecast. There are so many variables, with the health of Pierre-Paul and the two star wideouts foremost. The lines are relying on young players showing more than they ever have before, though they have the potential to accomplish very good things. The 8.5 book figure definitely includes the traditional 1-game New York bump, but it’s eminently possible too.

If they get the Eli Manning from the bulk of last season, with a more functional run game and better depth at wideout, this offense can finish near the top in points scored. The corners are a strong building block on defense, but the rest of the back seven has to provide more impact or else opposing offenses are going to be able to outscore New York’s own prolific group.

The opener is in prime time at Dallas. It’s rare for the first game to mean so much to a team, but if the Giants lose that contest by more than one final drive, it’s hard to see this team rallying to ever catch back up in the NFC East. If they lose 11 days later in prime time against Washington, it’s over.

The non-divisional slate brings the AFC East and NFC South, two divisions where just one team typically makes the playoffs. That’s a positive for New York, though the AFC East looks stronger than the NFC’s “premier” division and the South has a lot of offensive firepower to deal with in every game. Give the G-Men a split against both those divisions and the two other non-divisional rivals (SF and @MIN). That leaves them 5-5 outside the NFC East…

I’ll stagger the prediction here:

--if they win the opener in Dallas, the Giants will finish 9-7 and sneak into the playoffs by winning the NFC East

--if they lose in Dallas, they finish 6-10 and that includes a humiliating loss to Washington and two bad blowouts to Philadelphia

Because I have to make a call here, I’ll hedge with the latter but somehow throw in an extra win. New York finishes 7-9 in 2015.