2014 Record: 12-4, lost Super Bowl

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 11

Overall

The Seattle Seahawks were one measly yard away from doing the unthinkable in the modern NFL. One yard separated Pete Carroll’s energetic team from repeating as Super Bowl champions.

Any time a franchise can make two straight Super Bowls, and do so from a loaded NFC conference, it should be considered a prime contender once again. Led by dynamo QB Russell Wilson and a hard-charging rushing attack headed by Marshawn Lynch, the offense is potent. Adding tight end Jimmy Graham only makes them more dangerous and balanced. There are still holes along the line and at wideout, but Wilson has proven his creativity and improvisational skills can overcome.

The defense is the strength of the team, and it remains loaded. Richard Sherman belongs in the argument as the best cover corner in the NFL today. Bobby Wagner does the same at linebacker, as does Earl Thomas at safety. The front line is deep and diversely skilled, stressing opponents into mistakes and providing a nice cushion for the times when Wilson and the offense sputter a bit. They even have strong special teams.

Anything less than another Super Bowl appearance should be considered a disappointment, even though it’s darn near impossible to win three conference titles in a row. The roster is a little weaker overall, but Seattle still has a proven coaching staff calling the shots and a host of primetime-proven talent.

Five Questions

1. Can the offensive line hang tough enough?

The offensive line was already a weak point for Seattle, and that was before dealing the best lineman on the team away. Now they face some tough and aggressive defenses without solid Max Unger manning the middle. If Seattle has an Achilles heel on the field, this is it.

Left tackle is the strong point with Russell Okung, who has been a solid pass protector and is very good at destroying second-level targets in the run game. He’s got a lot of issues with edge speed, and injuries have slowed him the last two years. The former first-rounder is playing for a new contract so it behooves Okung to have a strong season. He won’t be the problem as long as he’s healthy, which he was not in the playoffs and struggled mightily.

The right side should concern Seattle fans. Justin Britt was a revolving door of a pass blocker at right tackle in his rookie campaign. Actually that’s unfair to the big man from Missouri. He did some things quite well: cut blocking, steering wide rushers deep around the outside, manhandling tackles on down blocks. If he can learn to handle rushers who attack his inside shoulder, he could be a solid starter. But he had zero answers for that a year ago other than holding (literally) for dear life. In his corner--he was much better the second time around versus both St. Louis and Carolina.

At guard, J.R. Sweezy often looks like a guy who played defense recently. Which is true, as he’s a converted DT. He’s an above-average run blocker but lacks the quickness and technique to be even below-average in pass protection. I get the sense some of his pass-blocking foibles are almost by design to take advantage of Wilson’s improvisational excellence, as there are several instances in games I watched where it seems Sweezy deliberately just stopped blocking his assignment. Unger helped him a lot, but with the center gone he’ll have to handle things better on his own accord. Given Britt’s relative weakness on his other flank, Sweezy’s pass protection figures to be a major challenge.

Center and left guard are even greater concern. Alvin Bailey is being counted on at guard, while Lemuel Jeanpierre takes over at center. Bailey has flashed competency in limited opportunities in his first two seasons. He’s got the athleticism, and the running backs will enjoy his spirited pulling. Defenders with good technique and veteran savvy have consistently bested him, however. Jeanpierre was a trainwreck in taking over for an injured Unger last year, only spared by undrafted first-year player Patrick Lewis looking even worse in his audition.

Rookies could help here. Mark Glowinski is a street brawler of a guard who figures to be the primary interior reserve. Fellow fourth-rounder Terry Poole could stick as the swing tackle, though that would surprise many draft evaluators who watched his stiff-legged technique. Seattle is trying him at guard but he’s sorely lacking the functional strength and nasty demeanor the team prefers inside. Given they have absolutely nothing backing up Britt and Okung, I expect Poole to eventually wind up back at tackle. That’s not good.

The real intrigue is sixth-rounder Kristjan Sokoli. Like Sweezy, he played defensive line in college. Unlike Sweezy, the Albanian native and Buffalo grad has outstanding functional athleticism. His work ethic is commendable, and it will not surprise me if Sokoli winds up being the starting center as soon as 2016. It might be asking too much for him to contribute right away, however.

Seattle’s OL doesn’t need to be great. Wilson and Lynch are dynamic enough to cope with merely adequate. This unit should be adequate. But if there’s any unit on this team which might not be, it’s the offensive line. 

2. How does the receiving corps shake out?

Adding arguably the best receiving tight end in Jimmy Graham certainly changes the dynamic here. On an offense where there is no real No. 1 wideout, having such a prolific and skilled target at tight end could take Wilson and the offense to another level.

Graham considers himself a wide receiver and argued as much at payday, part of why he’s no longer in New Orleans. Whatever you want to call him, Graham is a fantastic catcher of the football. He’s incredibly long and has great strength in his shoulders and hips, allowing him to drive off press coverage and almost invariably win contested catches in tight quarters.

How Seattle uses him will be interesting. Even though he posted another 85-catch season after years of 86 and 85, Graham wasn’t the same guy in New Orleans last year. His yards per catch were down dramatically, as was his yards per route run. His longest reception went just 29 yards, and just 10 of his more than 120 targets came more than 20 yards down the field. Granted he was hampered by a shoulder injury, but it just wasn’t what anyone expected. Graham remains a dangerous weapon in that capacity, but not a premium weapon. My worry here is more that some will consider a repeat of last year as a disappointment in Seattle even though it might be exactly what the Seahawks need from Graham. He is sensitive to his image and how he’s perceived by both peers and fans, and that did cause issues in New Orleans…which is part of why Graham is now in Seattle. It’s likely insignificant, but keep this filed away if Graham has 15 catches for just 176 yards and 1 TD in the first three games.

With Graham occupying the intermediate routes and seams, it frees up Doug Baldwin to work the sidelines more. That’s where he’s at his best despite being just 5’10” and not particularly strong or blessed with blazing speed. His control on his routes and sharp feet make him very effective, and he’s outstanding at attacking the ball in the air with quickness and very active eyes. It’s as if he picks up the track of the ball the instant it’s thrown, which is not as common of a trait as you might think. Baldwin won’t make a great fantasy option but he’ll help Seattle win games.

The rest of the receiving corps has real potential but also a lot to prove. I’m very bullish on rookie Tyler Lockett, a lethally quick dynamo out of the slot. The Kansas State grad has elite agility and instant acceleration. The concept of him inside Baldwin and opposite Graham is very intriguing. He’s a much better option than Ricardo Lockette, a young journeyman who has done little in his career prior to a strong Super Bowl performance. He’s a long-striding one-speed receiver best utilized as the third outside guy, and Lockette does have strong hands.

Smooth second-year Kevin Norwood and physical Jermaine Kearse round out the battalion. Kearse is a solid vertical threat but his play has always been inconsistent, even going back to his days at Washington. Wilson likes to find him on broken plays and that trust gives him value. Norwood didn’t do much as a rookie (9 catches) but could be in for an expanded role as fellow rookie Paul Richardson tore up his knee in the playoffs. The super-skinny Richardson is a one-note sideline threat with negligible strength. He lit up the over-aggressive Rams in their two games but was largely invisible the rest of the season, and he almost certainly will miss the first part of the year at minimum. Norwood is a more complete receiver but doesn’t have the speed.

Then there’s Super Bowl revelation Chris Matthews, a 6’5” pseudo-TE who made all four of his career catches against New England. He sure looked impressive in that game, and his size should come in useful on special teams. It’s hard to project where he fits with Graham now on board though.

The depth at TE could be an issue, especially if Graham is fighting a bum shoulder once again. Luke Willson is a quality second TE. In fact, he’s good enough to be a quality starter in his own right as a receiving option. But neither Cooper Helfet nor oft-injured Anthony McCoy inspire much confidence behind them.

3. Will the unproven defensive depth step up?

One of the big keys to Seattle’s defensive dominance over the last few years has been its superlative depth.

This question is even more pertinent given the health status of the starters. Earl Thomas had shoulder surgery in February. Richard Sherman is coming off a nasty elbow injury, though he avoided Tommy John surgery as initially feared for his torn ligaments. Jeremy Lane, who would have assumed the starting corner sport opposite Sherman from the departed Byron Maxwell, will not be ready for training camp (at minimum) after suffering significant wrist and knee injuries.

Sure, GM John Schneider snatched up corners Cary Williams and Will Blackmon in free agency. The name recognition here is far better than the actual impact on the field. Williams struggled with consistency and more complex assignments in Philadelphia after cashing in on a hot streak in his final season in Baltimore. The Eagles, who are not deep at corner, will not miss him. Blackmon was picked on and exposed in the slot in Jacksonville, which uses the same basic defensive system as Seattle. He hasn’t been a special teams asset since George W. Bush was President. They are adhesive bandages, the kind which fall off the second your first-grader jumps in the pool.

The hope lies in youngsters like Tharold Simon and Tye Smith. Simon got his feet wet in his second NFL season with mixed results. He’s got the size and mentality to fit right in, and he played acceptably in limited usage in the regular season. He was brutal in the playoffs, however, in part because he was battling a shoulder injury which (stop me if you’ve heard this before) required postseason surgery. He missed his entire rookie season with separate foot injuries. The ability is there, at least potentially, but the durability is a big question. Fifth-round rookie Smith comes from FCS-level Towson, though he impressed in doing more than just hanging with the bigger boys during Shrine Game practices, where I watched him flash both closing speed and impressive instincts. Marcus Burley has some potential in the slot as well, though he too has quite limited experience.

The situation is bleaker at both safety and linebacker. If any of the starters go down, it’s up to a wildly unproven cast of reserves to hold the fort. The only backup LB or safety who has logged even 100 NFL snaps from scrimmage is lightweight OLB Mike Morgan, largely a special teams fixture. Schneider has not invested much draft capital at either spot, partly as a function of having such good starters. Kevin Pierre-Louis and Dion Bailey (who I like) might be good NFL players, but right now they’re unknown commodities as the top reserve LB and S, respectively.

It’s much better up front, where guys like Jordan Hill, Ahtyba Rubin and Demarcus Dobbs have legit experience as functional role players. They lost Kevin Williams and O’Brien Schofield and that does hurt, but the depth here is more proven than in the back seven. Second-round pick Frank Clark could help as well, though he was drafted at least two rounds too early and that’s not even considering his rather troublesome off-field incidents (plural). Clark athletically tested a lot better than he played in his Michigan career, though he did take a nice step forward as a senior before getting booted form the program.

This is all a moot point if Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor and the excellent starting cast can all stay healthy for 16 games, but that’s just not likely to happen.

4. Super Bowl hangover?

They lost in excruciating fashion thanks to a questionable (read: awful) coaching decision, two weeks after escaping thanks to a nearly unprecedented coaching choke job by Mike McCarthy. Those final two games showed real chinks in the Carroll armor. Carroll is a coach who relies heavily on everyone buying in and sharing his gung-ho enthusiasm. His “open competition” style of practice is great for an up-and-coming team. Yet this is a veteran team in most key spots. They’ve heard the speeches and experienced the freakish energy. Stagnation in coaching happens. It seems completely counterintuitive in Carroll’s case, but watch carefully if his Seahawks start off.

The first two games are on the road at a dangerous St. Louis defense and perennial playoff rival Green Bay, i.e. a legit chance to open 0-2. That would challenge this group. Teams with Seattle’s record of success and accomplishment tend to get every opponent’s best shot, and there are dangerous games on the schedule; they play every NFC playoff team from 2014, all but Detroit on the road, as well as AFC contenders Baltimore and Cincinnati, also both on the road. Heavy is the head that wears the crown. 

5. What trips them up?

The two-time defending NFC champions are obviously an impressive overall unit. They should be considered front-runners to win the conference once again, though they do face a few worthy challengers.

Strange things do happen to presumptive favorites. Some are obvious, others are more abstract. What might cause the unthinkable, Seattle missing the playoffs?

- An injury to Russell Wilson. Tarvaris Jackson is the backup quarterback. In theory he’s stylistically similar. That theory also holds true for Metallica and Nickelback. Seattle is not winning more than 25% of games where Wilson doesn’t take at least 75% of the snaps. Note this is true of all the other NFC contenders, notably Green Bay. It’s why great QBs get paid. Speaking of which…

- Discord over his contract situation dogs Wilson. The Seahawks are clearly intent and committed here. Wilson has proven he deserves to be showered with record-setting guaranteed dollars. Yet there is no deal. Is this a likely outcome--heck no! But every other QB (Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Nick Foles) who scores a fat new deal is that much more gasoline on the fire that is Wilson being one of the most underpaid professional athletes in modern times. Don’t think influential people aren’t constantly in his ear about that fact.

- Too many hands out. Wilson isn’t the only Seahawk angling for a much bigger payday. Okung, Wagner, pass rushing specialist Bruce Irvin and both starting DTs are playing the final years of their contracts. The team will have to pay significant raises for their starting LT and star MLB beyond what they give the MVP candidate at QB. Doug Baldwin will be looking for a new deal, too, as will Willson and valuable backup RB Robert Turbin. They simply cannot afford to keep everyone happy, and the players know that. More money, more problems.

- Defensive regression. The Seahawks have lost two very talented defensive coordinators in the last three years. Both Gus Bradley and Dan Quinn earned head coaching gigs on the basis of their exemplary work with Seattle’s talented D. The latest coordinator is Kris Richard, promoted from coaching the secondary. Richard was a great position coach, but he’s unproven as a coordinator and has big shoes to fill. Seattle also lost linebackers coach Ken Norton Jr. to Oakland, where he’s now calling the defensive shots. 

These are real losses. Even falling from first to sixth could be the difference between 13-3 and hosting every playoff game or 10-6 and the 5th seed playing at a place like New Orleans or Green Bay in the Wild Card round.

Are any of these potential pratfalls likely? I really don’t think so, not to any dramatic extent. But the NFL is wildly popular in part because it’s wildly unpredictable. That’s why they play the games.

Forecast: Seattle remains the favorite to win not just the NFC West but the entire conference for the third year in a row. They sport a legit MVP candidate and clutch performer at quarterback, a punishing running game to balance Wilson, and very good special teams play. The defensive starters are arguably the best all-around group in the league, coming off a year where they finished first in both points and yards allowed.

It will not be easy. The schedule is marked with several real challenges and they’re sure to draw the enemy’s best. The depth has fallen off, and attrition on the coaching staff must be factored in as well. I expect the Seahawks to take a little step back in regular season wins. The bookmakers have the number right at 11, and I think that’s just right. Those 11 wins against five losses are enough to keep the Seahawks as the NFC West champs and Seattle has the potential to win every playoff game it plays, including the big one at the end.