2014 Record: 4-12, last in AFC East

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 7.5

Overall

Change is in the air as Todd Bowles takes over at head coach under new GM Mike McCagnan. The Rex Ryan/John Idzik pairing ran its course, with the GM Idzik often pulling where Ryan wanted to push instead.

It will be less chaotic and certainly less entertaining for the local fans, but will these Jets be any better on the field? That depends on several factors beyond the new coaching and management.

There is decent offensive talent for savvy veteran Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey to work with. In Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and rookie Devin Smith the Jets have the potential to be dynamic at wide receiver. The line is mediocre but functional enough to clear holes for a solid ground game. The overall depth is better across the offense, including at quarterback.

Ah yes, the quarterback. Geno Smith is the returning starter, but he’ll need to play a lot better to elevate the team. Ryan Fitzpatrick offers more efficiency and accuracy than Michael Vick as the new backup, though he’s had a star-crossed career. If the Jets don’t get much better, more consistent play from the position, the win total is not going to increase much.

Fortunately the defense has the potential to be outstanding. The overhaul at cornerback is nothing short of revolutionary, bringing in three players who are all vastly superior to anyone on the roster a year ago. Playing in coverage behind an excellent line, Revis Island & friends could really stymie opposing offenses. Bowles was a prominent schematic guru with his blitz-happy defenses in Arizona, and now he’s got great skill and depth across the line and at corner. The linebackers are a question mark, but guys like Demario Davis and Quentin Coples are a good starting point. At worst, the Jets defense will keep them in every game as long as the offense protects the ball.

Expectations are rightfully lowered with the big change and the quarterback uncertainty. For the Jets, that might be a key to an unexpected flight up the AFC East standings. Most everyone--myself included--projects this New York unit as the fourth-place roster in the division. If they can get better on offense and not lose any defensive potency in the coaching shuffle, these Jets could surprise.

Five Questions

1. How much does the defense change under Todd Bowles?

Rex Ryan had his faults as head coach, but as a defensive tactician he has few peers in the modern NFL. Ryan’s defenses were tough, creative and often suffocating.

Todd Bowles has a proven track record of dynamic defenses in both Miami and especially Arizona over the last few years. His attacking 3-4 scheme produced fantastic results, though he did so in different ways than Ryan. With so many players here being schematic fits for Ryan, it remains to be seen how well they fit in the new defense.

Granted, the changes will not be radical. The most noticeable alteration will be more blitzing from the safeties and inside linebackers, a staple of Bowles Ball with the Cardinals. Double A-gap blitzes are the hallmark, and they’ve proven wildly successful. Bowles’ Arizona defenses were also quite good at run blitzes, something the Jets have done nicely as well.

The emphasis on generating pass rush from places other than outside linebacker is a good fit in New York, where the OLBs are the weak point of the front. Quinton Coples is serviceable as a strongside OLB, but he’s not a progenitor as a rusher. He’s just not quick or comfortable operating in space, but at 6’6” and 290-ish pounds expecting him to thrive in that capacity is foolish. Calvin Pace started opposite Coples last year and was a major disappointment, netting just five sacks and often blowing edge containment on his way into the backfield. Now 34, he’s not guaranteed to start again. Rookie third-rounder Lorenzo Mauldin better fits the profile, while second-year announcer nigthmare IK Enemkpali flashed real juice in limited duty late in the year. Of course Jason Babin lingers as well, though he’s 35, completely useless at anything but rushing wide around the edge and has never ingratiated himself to teammates in his numerous stops.

Demario Davis should be the primary beneficiary in the new scheme. His kinetic persona and savvy timing are ideal for patrolling the middle and attacking gaps. He and fellow ILB David Harris are both decent pass rushers, and having more creative schematics to free them could spike their combined sack total from 9 last year to at least 15. Of course it helps playing behind a fantastic front threesome.

Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Sheldon Richardson are outstanding up front. Richardson has quickly become one of the most active ends in the league, a powerful attack dog with freakishly quick hands and the ability to win inside or outside. Wilkerson is even better all-around though not quite as dynamic of a rusher. Harrison doesn’t get into the backfield much but consistently soaks up the middle of the line without moving backwards. They’re a brick wall against the run, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to finish 6^th overall. They actually ranked in the top three most of the season before falling off late in the year. As a corollary point, teams with fullbacks found much more success on the ground.

Richardson is suspended for the first four games, which makes the selection of Leonard Williams with the sixth overall pick seem more prescient. Williams was the top overall player on my draft board, and I was not alone in that assessment. He’s different from Wilkerson, but again in the new defense that might be a benefit. There figures to be occasions where all four talented linemen play at times as well once Richardson returns to the lineup.

In the secondary, second-year safety Calvin Pryor will assume more responsibility. He was strong as a rookie moving forward, but lateral range was a big problem. So was tackling. With Dawan Landry gone next to him, he must be a more complete player. Bowles has worked wonders with lesser safety tandems than he has here with Pryor and newcomer Marcus Gilchrist, and the depth is solid with Jaiquawn Jarrett and Antonio Allen, who projects as more useful in playing closer to the line of scrimmage than he did under Ryan.

There won’t be much change at corner. Bowles strongly favored man coverage with inside technique. New York landed the best corner in the league at that very skill in recruiting (read: opening the bank vault) Darrelle Revis back from New England. Revis should thrive in this defense, giving the Jets a shutdown corner capable of erasing one side of the field without help. Bowles even imported Antonio Cromartie back from Arizona with him to play the other side. That duo should be outstanding, though Jets fans will recall Cromartie’s propensity for biting on double moves from his prior stint in New York. Adding Buster Skrine as the nickel is an upgrade. Keep an eye on 2013 first-rounder Dee Milliner, who is not a scheme fit and has been a big disappointment thus far. If he’s not clearly better than Darrin Walls or Marcus Williams in camp, he could be playing elsewhere in 2015. 

2. Will the offensive newcomers lift productivity?

In acquiring Brandon Marshall from the Chicago Bears, the Jets dramatically upgraded the talent pool at outside wide receiver. Marshall has his issues--he’s on his fourth team in seven years for a reason--but when he’s healthy and dialed in few are better outside the hashes. The 31-year-old snatched 228 receptions and 23 TDs in his first two seasons in Chicago before things went south in 2014, a combination of injuries, a predictable and static offense, and issues with enigmatic Jay Cutler. He’s no longer a deep threat, but his ability to get open and reliably catch the ball on intermediate outs, hooks and crosses can only help his quarterback. He’s a smarter gamble than Percy Harvin, who largely flopped in his one year in New York.

Second-round pick Devin Smith replaces Harvin as the downfield threat. Nobody in the NCAA was better at blazing behind defenses last year than the lightning-fast Smith, who is the rare specimen with both incredible initial burst and an extra gear to his long speed. During the draft process the former Ohio State Buckeye tried his best to market himself as a more complete receiver, but the Jets really need him for his lid-lifting speed. I wouldn’t expect more than about 35 catches, but yardage and TDs are the important things to look at with the lanky rookie. He needs to average at least 17.5 YPC and find the end zone more than 5 times. If he can hit those eminently attainable numbers, the Jets offense will be a lot more effective and diverse. If he’s not close, it makes Marshall less effective and allows opponents the keep an extra safety in the box to help snuff the run. On paper, the threesome of Marshall, Smith and top returning receiver Eric Decker make a very nice trio. Jeremy Kerley isn’t bad in the slot, either. If former Texan DeVier Posey can ever get healthy, this unit has enviable depth and strong diversity of skills.

Newcomers abound in the backfield. Aside from Fitzpatrick, the Jets brought in fresh backups at running back. While they’re not all that exciting, Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy at least offer the promise of filling roles the Jets have struggled with lately. Ridley, a former Patriot, is a reliable receiver and solid outside runner to balance off hard-charging starter Chris Ivory. Stacy can grind opportunistically between the tackles. He never established himself in a crowded, less-talented backfield in St. Louis but does have some potential as the third RB. I’m a fan of rookie fullback JC Copeland, a thumper out of LSU with nifty feet in traffic for a man of his bulk. 

New York also added guard James Carpenter from Seattle, hoping he pans out as well as poaching RT Breno Giacomini did a year ago. Carpenter has had issues staying on the field but he’s an upgrade over Brian Winters if he stays on the left side. He could beat out Willie Colon at right guard if the Jets finally realize the aging Colon is just not a very good football player. Rookie Jarvis Harrison is more of a long-term projection, but he could be a pleasant surprise here too. Tackles D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Giacomini are not a problem despite neither being a standout. Center Nick Mangold is one of the very best in the league. Carpenter has played acceptable football between far lesser pairings.

Because the Jets are so iffy at quarterback, it is imperative they get immediate high-level performances from Marshall, Smith and at least one running back. An improved second season from TE Jace Amaro would help as well, though if he doesn’t block better he’ll struggle to get on the field under Gailey. Amaro has the potential to make a big splash as a sophomore Jet. If all those newcomers can play well, the Jets just might score enough to win half their games. 

3. Can the special teams rise up?

Were the Jets plagued by poor special teams a year ago? Not exactly. Yet there are some troubling signs moving forward which could create a regression in an area where New York cannot afford any fallback at all.

Nick Folk is a decent field goal kicker. He had five misses a year ago, though he did lead the league with 39 attempts to make his overall percentage middle of the pack. The 31-year-old was 3-for-6 beyond 50 yards and missed three of his final five kicks from 40-49 yards, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence moving forward. His kickoffs are a bigger problem. Lack of hangtime allows too many running starts for opposing return men, and his touchback rate of 31% ranks near the bottom. Punter Ryan Quigley wasn’t much better in limited opportunity kicking off. Quigley also tailed off badly with his punting at the end of the season; six of his eight worst games in terms of net punting came in the final seven weeks.

In addition, top coverage ace Nick Bellore defected to San Francisco. The only other real asset on the special teams units was backup TE Zach Sudfeld, most notable for catching a pass from Quigley on a fake punt in a meaningless Week 17 game. Sudfeld probably shouldn’t make the 53-man roster; he’s not in the top 4 TE currently on the depth chart, is not a blocker and has just 10 catches in three NFL seasons. The top two coverage guys figure to be gone for a unit where the kicker allows a high percentage of returnable balls. That’s not good, though Devin Smith was a fantastic gunner at Ohio State.

The return game needs invigoration as well. New York ranked 19^th in kick return average and 30^th in punt returns. Percy Harvin was not the dynamic return man as expected, but he was at least functional. He’s now with Rex Ryan in Buffalo. Jeremy Kerley was inadequate as a punt shagger. Walt Powell was a little better in his brief stint on kickoffs but he’s unlikely to make the team unless he wows in the return capacity in preseason. This is one of those hidden problem spots. Perhaps someone (Powell? DeVier Posey?) steps up and makes the return game a non-issue, but confidence is not high that happens.

4. Is Geno Smith ready, or is it the Ryan Fitzpatrick show at quarterback?

Geno Smith enters his third season as the presumptive starter, a role he has held for all but three games of his career. Ask most Jets fans about Smith and they’ll swallow hard before offering optimism that new Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey can coax a blossom from his new protégé which actually bears fruit.

The physical tools are there. Smith has a strong arm that can also deliver with deft touch and good accuracy. He’s agile and tough enough to shed off sacks and scamper for first downs. At times, Smith smartly progresses through his reads and trusts his arm enough to fire strikes in small areas. At times.

More often, Smith appears largely overwhelmed and inadequate as a starter. He holds the ball too long and is tentative in reacting to pressure. He doesn’t read safeties well, and forget about him diagnosing zone blitzes with dropping defensive linemen or strafing linebackers. His mechanics often break down when he’s forced to move, ruining his accuracy. The Jets benched Smith after capping a dreadful start to the season with three INTs in his first 8 attempts versus Buffalo, only to find nobody else any better on the roster and went back to him after two weeks.

The end of the season provides realistic hope with Smith. He got better, and just as importantly more consistently so, after regaining the gig. Smith appeared more poised and patient in letting deeper routes develop. These are things Gailey can work with, and few coaches are better at tuning into what QBs do well and implementing a game plan which takes advantage of those skills. If he can’t click with Smith, say hello to Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick has a much worse reputation than his overall play merits. Statistically speaking, he’s a middle of the road QB with a solid (63.1) completion percentage given his high (8.0, ranking 5^th in ’14) yards per attempt. He notched the same INT percentage (2.6) as Andrew Luck last year. He’s even run for first downs at an above-average clip, both in quantity and percentage, over the last five years.

The primary issue with the journeyman from Harvard is his maddening propensity for truly awful cold spells. Fitzpatrick has an alarming tendency to make terrible decisions in clutch situations, throwing the game-killing interception or taking an unnecessary sack just outside of field goal range. When he’s good, he has proven he can direct pretty effective offenses. When he’s bad, few draw more (deserved) ire from the hometown fans for play which directly leads to losing. At this point in his career, that’s unlikely to change. He’s a better option than Smith some weeks, but the randomness of Fitzpatrick’s positive play leaves Smith (gulp) the safer option.

Both guys might just be holding the place for a year until Bryce Petty is ready. The fourth-round pick from Baylor has a lot of talent in his arm and legs. It’s generally expected Petty will need a year or two to adjust from Baylor’s fast-paced but simplistic passing attack, which is even less NFL-ready than what Smith operated at West Virginia. Whether he ever becomes The Man is debatable; Petty is already 24 (as is Smith) and has broken his back, torn ACLs in both knees and suffered at least three concussions which have forced him from the field. His style of play and athletic profile resembles Fitzpatrick, and having him as a mentor could be the trick to Petty’s success. But it won’t happen in 2015.

5. How long is Rex Ryan’s shadow?

I’ll admit to having an interesting change of heart on the former Jets coach. Initially, I was repulsed by Rex’s braggadocio, his flat-out ignoring the offensive side of the ball and his colorful personality. I found him overrated by a media center desperate for someone different, even though his early results were admittedly quite impressive.

Over the years I watched more of the Jets and how Rex handled the cards he was dealt. And in the process I came to truly admire and respect Rex Ryan as a coach. His defensive tactics were masterful and tailored well for his personnel. Ryan motivated his players and defended them even when he probably shouldn’t have. He coaxed a tight team attitude and defined culture in New York, not an easy task. No, he never figured out offense but he did improve. But for all intents and purposes, when the world thought of the New York Jets, they thought of Rex Ryan.

It’s hard to replace a general like that. I’m deeply respectful and optimistic about Todd Bowles’ chances as a head coach, but he’s not Rex Ryan. There are a lot of players still on the roster who are Ryan guys. The definite identity and culture are no longer intact. Perhaps that is a good thing; after all, New York hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2010 and bottomed out with just 4 wins in ’14. But Ryan was the heart and soul of the organization for years. Change might have been necessary (I disagree here) but there is no guarantee the immediate results will be any better. It could take Bowles and the new staff some time to redo the Jets in their own image. That’s a hard task when the prior regime has deep fingerprints. It’s even harder when he’s coaching a division rival which certainly looks better on paper than these Jets.

Two games will reveal the extent here: Week 7 in New England and Rex’s return to the Big Apple three weeks later. Even in lean times Ryan’s Jets always gave the mighty Patriots fits. If the trip to Foxboro is a blowout loss, real trouble could ensue. If Ryan gets a hero’s welcome and the Bills emphatically ground the Jets in that Week 10 game, the season will be over. It might be anyways, but they’re not recovering quickly from devastating losses here. It will be a major credit to Bowles if he can erase years of Rex being the undeniable face of football in New York by the end of his first season at the helm. 

Forecast: It’s always tough to predict the impact of a new coaching staff and so many veteran additions. The Jets certainly upgraded the talent level in the secondary and at wide receiver. Yet talent on paper doesn’t always translate into wins on the field. Jets fans know this all too well.

The on-field play should be more consistent. The defense has a chance to be special, particularly against the pass. Yet there are still a lot of holes. None is bigger or more critical than quarterback. And the Geno Smith/Ryan Fitzpatrick combo is a real downer despite the new weapons outside.

I’ll be blunt here--I do not expect Smith to make a major step forward, not even with the upgraded supporting cast. I do believe Gailey will help him enough to improve efficiency and productivity, but not enough to entrench Geno as the starter. Playing tough defenses early on (Cleveland, Philly, New England, Miami) looks to be a major problem. In fact, the early schedule makes a 0-4 trip into the early bye week a very distinct possibility.

It’s hard to find more than six wins on the schedule. What intrigues me is the Jets opened at most sports books with a 6.5 win over/under total and that has gone up. Every New York team in every sport is always inflated by at least 10 percent in projected wins by the bookies, savvy to take advantage of overconfidence from the cocksure fan base. Normally the big money pours in and lowers the total, but this year it’s gone the other direction. When people who wager for a living are confident in a team like this, it’s noteworthy.

I really don’t see it, however. Last year I was too optimistic on the Jets (I predicted 9-7) and they crashed my hopes. This year I’m probably too pessimistic with my 5-11 projection.