2014 Record: 10-5-1, 2nd in AFC North

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 8.5

Overall

These Cincinnati Bengals might be the deepest team in the entire league. They have enviable depth across both lines and at most of the perimeter spots, too. They’ve advanced to the postseason four years in a row despite little fanfare or respect outside the 513 area code.

Marvin Lewis has some star power at his disposal, too. A.J. Green is one of the most talented wideouts in the league. The Jeremy Hill/Gio Bernard running back tandem is one of the best young backfields in football. Geno Atkins is a legit All Pro defensive tackle, while Carlos Dunlap is a proven playmaker off the edge. Kevin Huber is the best punter you’ve never heard of. This is truly a stocked roster.

Thus far, all that talent has not produced the desired results. The 0-4 playoff mark with Andy Dalton at quarterback is all most people see, and they write off these Bengals as also-rans and overachievers in simply making the postseason. It’s hard to argue, as the team has not really come close to winning any of those games.

This might be the deepest and most talent-laden roster Lewis has had, certainly so in the post-Carson Palmer era. With good health and a little improvement at quarterback and linebacker, this Cincinnati team has the potential to make a surprising postseason run. Yet it’s also easy to see them regressing a bit if Dalton doesn’t progress and the injuries mount once again.

Five Questions

1. Where will the sacks come from?

One of the bigger surprises from the 2014 NFL season was finding these Bengals dead last in sack percentage, which is number of defensive sacks per opponent passing plays. Despite a cadre of name talent along the line, Cincinnati really struggled to convert pressures into sacks. It cost them dearly; look no further than the playoff loss to Indianapolis, where almost every positive Andrew Luck play came as a result of the Bengals getting pressure but not finishing the play.

Starting end Carlos Dunlap was the only Bengal with more than three sacks. His nine tripled the next-highest total, Geno Atkins from the tackle position. Next in line was safety Reggie Nelson and situational specialist Wallace Gilberry, both with 1.5, and Gilberry bagged all of his in the opener against Baltimore--a game where Joe Flacco took two of the dumbest sacks you’ll ever see to end both halves.

Bringing back Michael Johnson will certainly help. The tall edge rusher took a massive payday for a one-year sojourn in Tampa Bay, where he disappointed with just four sacks. He’s now back where he had 15 sacks and 12 PDs in his final two seasons as part of a deep rotation. He makes Dunlap better on the other side. It also pushes badly overdrafted Margus Hunt down the depth chart and moves Gilberry (7.5 sacks in ’13 splitting with Johnson) back to a more limited role, where he has proven more effective.

Atkins is the key. He nailed 20 sacks and six forced fumbles combined in his All Pro years in 2011 and ’12. He has 9 and 1 in 25 games since, and that’s not the return on the major investment the Bengals need. He’s still a monster against the run and creates loads of internal pressure, but he needs to convert more of those pressures. Ten percent is not getting it done. If that number upticks to even 15 percent, and both ends combine for 20--and those are very realistic figures--this Bengals defense will rocket from dead last in Pro Football Focus’ pass rush ratings to at least 20th. Add in more effective blitzing from the linebackers, something rookie Defensive Coordinator Paul Guenther did not do near enough last year, and that only augments the line. That’s the difference between clawing for a playoff berth and playing for home field advantage. 

2. Can more balance in the passing game develop?

The Cincinnati passing offense too often looks like Andy Dalton chucking the ball somewhere in the general direction of A.J. Green, unless he quickly checks down to a fairly well-covered shorter option. In 2013 Green had more than double the number of targets of any other Bengal, and was on pace for that in 2014 before injuries kept him out of three full games and parts of others.

Developing more balance is critical. When Green was out for the playoff loss, the Cincinnati offense was far too easy to defend. While they found some success with misdirection screens and delayed releases out of the backfield, there was nothing beyond 10 yards down the field.

A healthy return from tight end Tyler Eifert would be great. Eifert was effective as a rookie in 2013, catching 39 passes and showing speed to stretch the seam. He missed all but one game last year with a nasty elbow injury. He can’t block a lick, but the Bengals don’t need him for that. They need him to stress opposing linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field to draw some coverage off Green. Mohammed Sanu is a quality short-range option, but defenses don’t worry about him like that. Just 6 of his 56 receptions came more than 18 yards down the field, though Sanu did rank 14th in YAC average. Remember that when fantasy gurus tell you he can’t create much for himself. Perhaps he should get more looks, especially with Eifert clearing more space for him.

Getting a healthy Marvin Jones will also help. Like Eifert, Jones showed real potential as a rookie in 2013 but saw 2014 washed out with injury. He caught 51 of his 80 targets and scored 10 TDs in his first year. The TD production is unlikely to repeat, but this team desperately needs his 50 catches. If he can up that to 65 and Eifert can snag 50, the Cincinnati offense will be much tougher to defend. Remember, RB Gio Bernard is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Third-round pick Tyler Kroft provides a worthy replacement for Jermaine Gresham’s receiving yards at TE, though he’s not as accomplished of a blocker.

The Bernard/Jeremy Hill tandem in the backfield is diverse and skilled. Hill finished the year strongly:

 

With a solid offensive line led by sorely underappreciated LT Andrew Whitworth, the offense should hum nicely. Drafting two rookie tackles in Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher figures to pay off more down the line, but it’s nice insurance. Relying on Green too much needs to be a thing of the past.

3. How do the corners sort out?

There is a cadre of recognizable names at cornerback. The Bengals have invested a host of capital in the position with mixed results.

Leon Hall is one of four first-round picks at the position, three of which were made by the Bengals themselves. Now 31, Hall is coming off an inconsistent season on the heels of missing most of 2013 with injury. He’s still physical and aggressive, but the ability to turn quickly and run have diminished. Hall primarily manned the slot last year, and that’s probably where he will remain. Adam “Pacman” Jones played on the right side and turned in a solid season at 30. The Titans’ 2005 first-rounder still has the wheels but guesses a lot, and he freelanced a little more in 2014 than prior years.

The two most recent first-rounders are the key. Dre Kirkpatrick (2012) has yet to come close to expectations, with just five starts in his three seasons. With Terrence Newman gone, it’s time for Kirkpatrick to make a big step forward. He did play well down the stretch last season, but he needs to better use his size and make quicker decisions. Darqueze Dennard (2014) barely saw the field as a rookie, just like Kirkpatrick in his first campaign. His best bet is likely in the slot, as he is quicker than fast and offers a different dimension than the aging Hall. Or perhaps he beats out Kirkpatrick and takes over the left side. Or Hall moves back outside and they slide Jones into the slot.

Fourth-round pick Josh Shaw figures into the mix, too. He’s a lot like a younger Hall, physical and strident but a little tight. While they traditionally don’t use rookie DBs much, the former USC star could be an exception. His hitting and commitment to run defense might force Marvin Lewis’ hand.

There are so many options, and a lot of talent. With a solidified safety pairing in Reggie Nelson and rapidly improving George Iloka behind them, the Bengals could have a very good secondary. If the aforementioned pass rush can step up, Cincinnati could even be elite in pass defense. For that to happen, however, roles must be quickly defined and embraced. There are some sensitive egos at play, and that is always a threat to scuttle good units.

4. Can Andy Dalton still improve?

Teams don’t make the playoffs four years in a row without having a talented quarterback. The problem for the Bengals is the dreaded QB purgatory, being saddled with a QB who is good enough to not merit replacing but not good enough to maximize the team’s potential. So it goes with Andy Dalton at the controls.

Dalton has flashed real progress. He was impressive enough to win AFC Offensive Player of the Month last October. The Red Rifle set a career-high in completion percentage (64.2%) and led three game-winning drives while helming four fourth-quarter comebacks; only Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo had more.

Then there’s the bad Dalton. He posted a career-high in INT percentage despite his offensive line giving him the 7th-rated pass protection. His line in the home game vs. Cleveland is as terrifying as you’ll ever see for a QB who remains a starter the following week: 10-for-33, 86 yards, 3 INTs, 2-for-13 on third down.

He’s been a choking dog in the playoffs, too, although last year’s loss to Indianapolis was anything but his fault. Dalton’s contract is structured so the team has the ability to get out after this season, which adds pressure on the TCU grad to be more consistent and elevate his game in December and beyond. While some have talked up A.J. McCarron as a potential in-house replacement, his best attribute remains his wife and not his hesitant arm. Dalton seems aware of his situation and his teammates do have his back, both publicly and privately. He’s in a great position to succeed with a healthy receiving corps, strong running game and impressive offensive line. It’s all on #14 to improve his decision-making, consistency and ability to handle pressure both on the field and the sidelines.

5. Is this the year to get over the playoff hump?

This question is closely related to the one above, though Cincinnati’s playoff foibles go far beyond its quarterback. The Bengals have made the playoffs in five of the last six seasons yet they remain winless in the postseason since 1990.

Marvin Lewis bears the critical eye here. He’s the longest-tenured coach in the league outside of Bill Belichick. He’s crafted a positive environment which develops talent well and has a family feel to it. Unfortunately, Lewis’ teams tend to play at their worst when they need to be at their best. Last year’s excuse of having new coordinators (both Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer earned head coaching gigs for 2014) is a red herring. The defense just has not played well in the postseason, forcing just two turnovers and allowing 646 rushing yards in those last four losses. The first of those came to Houston’s third-string quarterback.

While Lewis clearly has earned the trust of the Brown family which owns the team and populates the football decision-making chairs, his seat should be warm. This is a roster capable of multiple playoff wins in the same season. The offense and defensive systems return intact. There is enough talent here to lift an average Dalton to being good enough to win in January. It’s time for Lewis to make sure that happens. 

Forecast

Ladies and gentlemen, I present you with the most talented team top-to-bottom in the entire AFC. There are so many strong pieces in place for a team which has made the playoffs four years running from a tough division. They’re even great on special teams. Cincinnati should be an AFC favorite and a real heavyweight contender to make the Super Bowl.

Alas, they are not strong at quarterback. They’re also not good up the gut on the defensive front, though a healthy Vontaze Burfict should help there. Those are the two worst areas to be lacking come playoff time, unfortunately. That’s why the populous is easily forgiven for overlooking the Bengals, or at least not taking them seriously as contenders.

If they make the playoffs, and I predict they will, they will have earned it. The schedule is quite formidable, including a ridiculous quirk in Weeks 8-9 where they play at Pittsburgh on Sunday Night before hosting Cleveland on Thursday. Winning at least one divisional road game is an imperative.

I’m a believer that depth of talent can overcome teams with brighter stars but lesser supporting casts, I really am. Thus far the Bengals have failed to prove me correct, however. Will this be the year? Take it from Steve Perry and Don’t Stop Believin’! Cincinnati finishes 10-6 but breaks the prolonged playoff drought and advances past the Wild Card round.