2014 Record: 4-12

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 5.5

Overall

2014 was a year to forget for Washington. A last-place finish in a down NFC East doesn’t begin to tell the whole story. The offense couldn’t score as a rotating cast of QBs largely failed to move the ball and turned it over far too often. The defense couldn’t stop anyone and was often on its heels far too early in games. Special teams were often a black hole. A rookie coach struggled to find his way with a thin roster in too many spots and injuries to the presumptive best players on both sides of the ball.

The new era begins in 2015. New GM Scott McGlouhan has already made a positive difference with more subdued value signings and a focused draft plan. The offensive line, bolstered by nasty (that’s a compliment) right tackle Brandon Scherff as the first-round pick, should be among the better units in the league. Alfred Morris will find ample room running behind them, and he’s already proven he can deliver behind lesser lines. The offensive skill positions are in good shape, with playmakers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon providing Robert Griffin with strong targets, and tight end Jordan Reed is underrated by the general masses. Morris and FB Albert Young are quite effective. There’s even young depth with guys like Jamison Crowder, Ryan Grant and Matt Jones.

Expect improvement right away, particularly if the quarterback situation stabilizes. There is more talent here than meets the eye, though some serious problem spots remain. How well the talent can overcome the detriments will determine if this team can claw out of the cellar or if it still needs another year.

Five Questions

1. Can the secondary possibly be any worse?

I suppose it’s possible the pass coverage could get even more wretched, but it’s almost impossible to imagine. Last year’s team had one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history. They surrendered the highest opposing QB rating (108.3) of at least this century, which is as far back as I could find accurate records. The yards per attempt (7.7) and completion percentage (66.5) allowed are both abysmal.

There is reason for optimism to improve to even 25th in the league, and that would be a major boost. DeAngelo Hall, the team’s most reliable cornerback over the last few years, returns after losing almost all of 2014 with a torn Achilles. Hall has his foibles but he’s a talented veteran with immeasurable confidence, and his return in any capacity will help.

How he’s used depends in large part on how the roster shakes out around him. Second-year corner Bashaud Breeland and free agent Chris Culliver will factor in the corner mix. Culliver is instantly the most skilled of the lot. The veteran can be streaky and misses too many tackles, but he’s also proven capable of locking up his man for prolonged periods. Breeland showed promise in his rookie campaign out of Clemson, notably in shorter range coverage. He struggled with receivers who could break at full gallop, and his average long speed means he needs safety help over the top at times. That was a huge problem last year.

To that end, Ryan Clark and Brandon Meriweather are both gone. Clark lacked range and closing speed, while Meriweather sorely lacked both anticipation and common sense. Unfortunately David Amerson remains, though hopefully as nothing more than a dime back. I’m no fan of Dashon Goldson, given away by the desperate Buccaneers after they signed him to a ridiculously lucrative contract after a couple of solid years in San Francisco. He was a terrible schematic fit in the passive zone and inside-out coverage and let the losing get to him. Here in Washington, Joe Berry’s more aggressive scheme and more freedom to move around should help Goldson. He’s not going to be great, but it says here he’ll be an upgrade over Meriweather…even though his propensity for penalties pervades. Or perhaps Hall emerges as the starting free safety. At least there are options. If any of those options aren’t keeping Amerson, a hot mess in coverage but even worse as a tackler, off the field this whole answer is moot.

The other safety spot is a camp battle between Duke Ihenacho, Jeron Johnson, Phillip Thomas and Kyshoen Jarrett. None of those are particularly inspiring, but there is youthful promise and the chance for one of them to break out. Johnson, a free-agent signing from Seattle, is the best bet to help the run defense. He’s a hitter who has thrived on special teams. Jarrett is a rookie from Virginia Tech who had some real positive moments. Ihenacho comes from Denver, where he had a strong 2013 campaign (74 tackles, 3 forced fumbles) before shattering his heel early in 2014. Thomas hasn’t lived up to expectations as a 2013 4th-rounder (I had him graded higher), but he’s battled injuries. If he’s healthy, he’ll help the coverage. Again, there is little proven here but the unproven options can only be better than the proven disaster of last year.

2. How much better will the defensive front perform?

It seems counterintuitive to expect a unit to improve despite seeing its marque player depart, but that is exactly what should happen with Washington’s front seven. Top pass rusher Brian Orakpo is gone, but it very well might be addition by subtraction.

Ryan Kerrigan and his 13.5 sacks return on the left side, where he is one of the better all-around at his position. He finishes plays well, forcing 15 fumbles and breaking up 16 passes in his four years to go with averaging just under 10 sacks per season. The fact he accomplished a career-high in sacks despite Orakpo being sidelined for more than half the year portends well for the former first-rounder from Purdue.

Trent Murphy will start on the opposite side, though it’s only a matter of time before first-rounder Preston Smith takes over. In this tandem, Washington has a lot of power. Murphy isn’t a pass rushing instigator but he’s got a very high football IQ and doesn’t cede ground in the run game. He lined up all over the place as a rookie, and he’s the sort of joker who Berry can get creative with to dictate to the offense. Smith is similarly built with long, powerful arms and loads of functional bulk for the OLB spot, but he’s got surprising quickness and a barrage of rush moves with his hands and shoulders. The Mississippi State product can create for himself but also has more ability than Murphy to clean up for Kerrigan.

The line looks a lot better, too. Signing Stephen Paea and Terrance Knighton really solidifies the interior. Paea is coming off a career year in Chicago which might raise expectations higher than he can deliver, but he’s an upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins…who will replace him in Chicago. Knighton was impressive enough in Denver to get endorsement deals as a nose tackle, an immovable object against the run game. He will make the inside backers behind him better by keeping blockers at bay, as well as not being blasted off the line. Signing Ricky Jean Francois offers energetic depth from a former draft pick of new GM Scott McCloughan back in their San Francisco halcyon days.

Inside backer remains the sore spot. Perry Riley and Keenan Robinson are marginal starters and often fail to even reach that level of play. Robinson can blitz and has some ability in short-area coverage, but the duo miss too many tackles and lack both range and power. There is no depth to challenge them, unfortunately, though I do like the potential of UDFA rookie Dyshawn Davis as a nickel package sub. The middle of the field in pass defense figures to remain a major sore point. Only so many fingers can go into leaky dykes in one offseason… 

3. Will the special teams step up?

Washington was often its own worst enemy last year thanks to terrible special teams. It’s a hidden factor which stood out in evaluating some of their games.

Washington ranked 31st in average starting field position, one of just two teams (Oakland is the other) who failed to average starting at even its own 25. That chicken laid an egg at the other end too, as Washington ranked 28th in opposing starting field position. The offense faced longer fields, the defense had less ground to give. Much of that blame nests on the special teams.

Only three teams allowed more punt return yardage, but what makes that statistic damning is punter Tress Way was actually quite good. Way rated 7th in Pro Football Focus punter rankings and his 47.5 gross average is stellar. Losing over 7 yards per returned kick and having two blocked ruined his strong kicking, as did a few chances to down some punts which wound up in the end zone. The coverage units were consistently weak and often appeared disorganized. That really crushed kicker Kai Forbath, who has arguably the weakest leg in the league. His touchback percentage of 22.8 is awful, and it’s not just on kickoffs where his limited leg is the problem; Washington was one of only four teams to not make a 50+ yard field goal in 2014. It’s worth noting Way did kick off in three games, and those produced two of the top three field position battle outcomes Washington had all year. With only token competition for Forbath in camp (undrafted rookie Ty Long), perhaps Special Teams Coordinator Ben Kotwica should opt for him to handle kickoffs again.

The return game needs help too. Andre Roberts was consistently below-average. At least he was consistent, as Roberts finished 19th in both punt and kick return average. Of concern were his seven fair catches inside his own 10, second-most in the league. If Chris Thompson can ever stay healthy, he offers a potential upgrade. Then again, Thompson is fighting with Silas Redd for a roster spot and might not be an option. Desean Jackson would relish the chance to return punts, but he’s too valuable to the offense to risk in that capacity.

Upgrading the overall depth of the team should help those pesky coverage units. Guys like Ihenacho, Martrell Spaight and Evan Spencer offer potential. They’re not going to help Forbath’s range, but if they can swing the field position battle to at least a draw, that could put him in more favorable range a handful of times. That matters a lot in close games. Don’t expect great improvement, but even exchanging 3 yards of field position per game form last year figures to add another victory or two.

4. Is Jay Gruden the right coach for Washington?

In his first season as a head coach, Gruden made some interesting choices which reflected his lack of experience and a relatively poor grasp of how to maximize the talent on hand.

Here’s an example: DeSean Jackson is one of the preeminent deep threats in the league. Few corners can handle his burst off the line and long speed. But despite what he’ll tell you, DJax is not the most elusive guy in tight quarters. So it makes little sense to throw all those screens and shallow quick-hits to him, but that’s exactly what Gruden dialed up last year. Using Niles Paul, an overmatched oversized wide receiver, as the primary blocking tight end is another example.

There was a notable lack of attention to detail. The aforementioned special teams are but one example. Using Alfred Morris, an effective power back but not a quick runner, on so many slow-developing run plays with so much movement in front of him, is another.

Gruden needs to put his players in better position to succeed in his second season. Growing pains are to be expected, and the quarterback and injury issues certainly did not help. There were whispers the ice beneath him is already thin, and the players haven’t exactly rushed to his public defense.

The recent revelation that Jackson and Pierre Garcon are switching roles as the top two wideouts is a promising sign. Installing Scherff as the mauling right tackle and going for a more power-oriented rushing scheme is another. This team will improve quickly if Gruden and his staff have indeed learned from their rookie mistakes. 

5. What happens at quarterback?

Ah, the million dollar question. Robert Griffin III dynamically led this franchise to an unexpected playoff berth in his impressive rookie season. Since then, he’s not been healthy and has lost much of the je ne sais quoi which endeared him to fans…and teammates. It’s still there somewhere, and it’s up to Griffin and Gruden to resurrect it.

The job should be Griffin’s, and only Griffin’s, for as long as he’s even moderately healthy. There really needs to be no competition here. RG3 is the unquestioned starter and the only real hope this franchise has to get back to the playoffs at this point. Any wavering from that stance and the long-suffering fans of the DMV are kicking off yet another rebuild.

If the unfortunate happens once again, there should be no question who gets the ball next: Colt McCoy. The veteran brightly outshined Kirk Cousins, who was given too much rope by Gruden and proceeded to hang himself repeatedly with slow decisions. I take zero joy in writing that, as I live in Cousins’ hometown and know many people close to him. I’ve met Kirk twice and he’s as good of a person and as confident of a leader as you’ll ever find. He’s just not a very good quarterback, not even as a backup.

Now if Griffin doesn’t play well, then this question changes. McCoy showed enough to merit another chance, be it in Washington or somewhere else. If the team is still contending into late November but Griffin is erratic and costing the team, that’s the time for a change. If they are 3-7 and Griffin is an average QB, it’s not worth yanking him.

The pressure is squarely on Griffin to not just stay in the lineup, but produce like the guy who made it a legitimate debate whether he or Andrew Luck, the player taken one spot earlier, would have the better career. I do believe that potential remains, but the ball placement, coverage reads and mastery of the offense all have to improve right away. Being healthy enough to get practice reps can only help. Griffin is very bright and should be able to learn from his repeated mistakes, like not seeing dropping LBs or anticipating backside cleanup rushers. It’s time to shine, or else.

Forecast

One year ago I predicted this very team to win 10 games and seize the final NFC Wild Card spot. It was unquestionably my biggest swing and miss of the year. But here’s the thing: much of what compelled me to favor this group a year ago is still present, if not even better. And some of the weak points, notably the defensive front and special teams, figure to be improved.

All that improvement might not translate on the win-loss tracker, unfortunately. Washington has a difficult schedule. Most of their “lesser” opponents are road games after divisional contests, which always seems to deflate the sails. The middle of the defense behind the line is still a major sore spot. Quarterback remains a mystery, even if Griffin plays all 16 games for once. The coaching staff is also an uncertainty, as are the special teams.

The playoffs are likely a pipe dream. Yet I can see a way:

--if Griffin plays to his rookie level and Garcon/Jackson both play 15+ games

--if the turnover ratio gets into positive numbers

--if the field position differential is neutral or positive

--if some youngsters like Jeron Johnson and Trent Murphy improve beyond expectation

--if they can exit the first four games with no less than 2 wins, including a victory in one of the two NFC East games (@NYG, PHI)

It’s more likely the push towards playoff contention takes another year, with another strong draft class and more smart signings. I want to say this Washington team wins six or seven, but the muddy QB situation leads me to forecast a 5-11 finish.