2014 Record: 11-5, lost AFC Championship Game
Current +/- wins per Bovada: 11

Overall: The reigning AFC South champions are poised for another playoff run, largely thanks to quarterback Andrew Luck. A front-runner for MVP, Luck enters his fourth season as one of the league’s unabashed stars. This year he has a loaded cast around him, as the Colts added venerable wideout Andre Johnson to replace Reggie Wayne, as well as drafting dynamic Phillip Dorsett to augment the outside corps. Frank Gore brings gravitas as running back, even at 32 years old an upgrade over mercifully departed Trent Richardson. This is a potent offense which can outscore most opponents.

There are more questions on defense, though this is not a group without some playmakers. Vontae Davis is an elite coverage corner, one of the very best at his job. Veterans Robert Mathis and Trent Cole both bring juice off the edge in the 3-4 scheme. Undersized safety Mike Adams is an underrated talent who fits the defense perfectly. GM Ryan Grigson spent a lot of draft capital on bolstering the depth with several promising players, notably end Henry Anderson, back D’Joun Smith and safety Clayton Geathers.

The coaching staff returns largely intact. Kicker Adam Vinatieri might be the oldest player in the league but he’s still quite effective, while punter Pat McAfee is reliably excellent. This is a team poised to win now. Playing in a division where all three opponents have serious questions at quarterback provides them an easy path to the playoffs, and Indy’s five games of postseason experience in the last two years should serve them well.

Five Questions

1. What do the new veterans still have to offer?

In an effort to invigorate the team, the Colts imported Andre Johnson, Frank Gore and Trent Cole as the primary additions. All are at least 32 years old, and how much each has left in the tank will go a long way towards whether this core unit has already peaked or if they can take the next step in the playoffs.

Johnson has the most left to offer, though he’s the most superfluous addition. He’s essentially taking over Reggie Wayne’s ever-diminishing role as the reliable safety net receiver. With TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, rookie Phillip Dorsett and CFL star Duron Carter all on board, Johnson probably won’t see anywhere near the volume he was force-fed in his great Houston era. His role will be as much a veteran mentor and outstanding blocker as threatening downfield target. Still, after years of playing with subpar (I’m being nice) quarterbacks with the Texans, teaming with Luck could spark Johnson to one of those rare late-career productivity outbursts. Not being the #1 wideout likely fits him well.

Gore comes over from San Francisco to help try and remedy the Colts’ anemic run game. Both plodding Trent Richardson and unreliable Ahmad Bradshaw are gone, leaving only Dan “Boom” Herron to really compete with Gore for carries. The venerable veteran has been a model of productivity and durability the last four years, not missing a game and amassing at least 1100 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry for the 49ers. Gore remains one of the most decisive backs in the league, attacking holes and lowering the shoulder to finish runs and glean extra yardage. He can still reliably catch the ball and pass protect. Yet he’s carried the ball over 2400 times and will now be running behind a much less-skilled line in a more passive and slow-developing rushing offense. Fortunately Herron showed some promise when elevated to the starting role in the playoffs, notably with his 20 receptions in three games.

Cole is charged with upgrading the pass rush, which wasn’t nearly as effective as the 41 sacks would have you believe. As Kyle Rodriguez of Bleacher Report notes, they were bad when the team needed them the most:

“In the team's five losses to playoff teams—against Denver (regular season), New England (twice), Dallas and Pittsburgh—the Colts managed just three total sacks.”

Getting Mathis back helps, but his return to prominence is far from given. The Colts desperately need Cole to return to his double-digit sack form, which he hit every year but one from 2007-11. However, playing the same rush end position the last two years for the Eagles he takes over here, Cole notched just 14.5 total sacks. In addition, his run defense went from being pretty solid to complete afterthought. If he and Mathis don’t combine for at least 20 sacks, this defense will be nothing more than average and could struggle to attain that status. 

2. Who can cover the middle of the field on defense?

Aside from safety Mike Adams, the Colts were downright terrible at protecting the middle of the field last season. D’Qwell Jackson and Jerrell Freeman formed one of the weakest LB tandems inside. In theory they should have been better, as Freeman does have decent coverage skills and ranginess, while Jackson can thump the run downhill between the tackles. Alas, opposing teams figured out how to isolate those players into the opposite roles far too frequently, and they were easily and readily exploited. Neither is adept at blitzing, which limits their value.

Reinforcements would have been nice, but general manager Ryan Grigson opted to play his weak base hand once again. I’m as big of a Junior Sylvestre fan as you’ll find in the draft community, but the speedy rookie from Toledo is more of a lateral nibbler than attack dog. He should at least get Jackson off the field in passing situations and he can blitz a little too. None of the other reserves, and that includes veteran Nate Irving, are NFL talents.

The Colts must also replace safety LaRon Landry, for better or worse. The rocked-up Landry was solid at crashing the run and cleaning up screens and slants but a major liability in coverage down the field or outside the hashes. He was at least an intimidating presence, a term never uttered about his replacement Dwight Lowery. “Peanut” has bounced around, never really finding a stable home at corner or safety in stops with the Falcons, Jaguars and Jets. He and Adams should work okay in coverage together, but this is the lightest and smallest safety tandem in the league. There is no depth behind them other than rookie Clayton Geathers, who could rotate in quite a bit with his impressive size to help ease the burden. Small safeties behind bad inside linebackers is not an optimal defensive strategy.

3. Are the lines strong enough?

Having perimeter talent on both sides of the ball is great, but if the lines aren’t up to snuff it often withers on the vine. The Colts’ lines have the potential to turn a bountiful harvest outside into rotten raisins.

On the offensive side, left tackle Anthony Castonzo is the only starter who is even average at his position. The real peril lies inside, where Khaled Holmes is undersized and overwhelmed at center. He has the early edge over Jonotthan Harrison, unimpressive as a rookie before injuries sent him to injured reserve. Flanking the center are converted tackle Jack Mewhort, who wasn’t awful as rookie but is already scraping his finite ceiling, and fading veteran Todd Herremans. There is no proven viable depth anywhere on the offensive line. They should (should!) be better at run blocking, and Gore should do a better job of running off those blocks to help them improve, too. Pass protection on the other hand…let’s just say it’s quite fortunate Andrew Luck is outstanding at throwing the ball on the move.

Defensively, the line has been Grigson’s Waterloo. Free agent Arthur Jones flopped in his first year, while 2013 first-rounder Bjorn Werner should be worried about job security as consistently ineffective as he’s played so far. Another free agent, edge linebacker Erik Walden, showed why Green Bay fans openly cheered his departure; his seven sacks belied what was otherwise a definite negative experience. The Colts’ best lineman last year was aging vet Cory Redding, now an Arizona Cardinal. The second-best defensive lineman was Ricky Jean Francois, now in Washington.

This was a unit too easily blocked by unspectacular opponents, particularly in the run game. They gave up 56 runs of 10 yards or more, the most of any playoff qualifier. None of the interior linemen offer any semblance of a pass rush, and there is very little depth at outside backer aside from promising youngster Jonathan Newsome, who should take over Walden’s role. Trent Cole and Robert Mathis can still provide pressure, but they would have been a lot more formidable in 2010. Mathis is 34 and coming off a torn Achilles. Cole is 32 and, as noted above, saw his run defense really fall off last year in Philadelphia.

It’s incumbent upon youngsters like Zach Kerr and Montori Hughes and rookies Henry Anderson and David Parry to raise the level of play. Kerr is a solid rotational player and Anderson offers maximum effort and a high football IQ, but none of the ends or tackles have proven much of anything in the NFL. With the relatively weak linebackers behind them, this unit has to offer more. 

4. Has the Chuck Pagano magic worn off?

Three years ago “ChuckStrong” was all the rage. The Colts' head coach bravely fought cancer, stepping aside for most of the season as he battled his horrible malady. His team rallied around their wounded leader. Pagano was a heroic figure and a rising star as a coach.

While the team continues to succeed, Pagano’s luster has dulled. Predictable play calling, unimaginative schematics, continually starting games slowly and questionable clock management and in-game adjustments are becoming the Colts’ hallmarks over the last couple of seasons. Colts fans have started to notice that despite three straight 11-5 campaigns, their coach might be a bit overmatched in big games.

Team owner Jim Irsay certainly noticed, and he’s the man making the decisions. Irsay was visibly angry and embarrassed after humiliating defeats on national television to Pittsburgh and New England last season, games where Pagano’s coaching more resembled Rich Kotite than Bill Walsh. The coach still commands his players’ respect and remains a powerful figure in the locker room. His coordinators, Pep Hamilton (offense) and Greg Manusky (defense) are both viewed as potential head coaches, as is assistant coach Rob Chudzinski. If this team struggles early against what appears to be one of the easiest schedules ever created, playing just two teams with winning records in 2014 before Thanksgiving, Pagano risks losing some of that sheen which has helped catapult this team into a playoff contender.

Worse, he risks losing Irsay’s confidence, and the owner is notoriously tempestuous. With two potential replacements already on his staff, this is more of an issue than many Colts fans would like to acknowledge. Of course Hamilton faces his own precipice, as an offense loaded with skill position talent must perform more efficiently and consistently or else he could be the fall guy. It’s worth noting Indy’s offense was at its best when Luck was pushing the tempo and making more decisions on his own; Hamilton’s pacing was a major issue which leapt off game film (notably vs. Cincinnati and Houston), but Pagano never saw fit to command change or demand adjustments. 

5. Will Luck stop being awful in the playoffs?

As great as Andrew Luck is--and he is--his playoff performances have been a mixed bag. While he’s got a 3-3 career playoff record, his play in the three losses is extremely disconcerting. Luck has posted two of the ten worst playoff QB Ratings in the last 10 years in losing efforts, and his career playoff QB Rating of 70.8 is well under his regular season 86.6 figure. Twelve interceptions in 6 games is abysmal, a ratio worse than noted playoff choker Andy Dalton. Luck’s line in the DeflateGate game goes largely unnoticed thanks to circumstance, but 12-for-33, 126 with 2 INTs and a crushing -6.2 grade from Pro Football Focus is as bad as you’ll ever see a great QB perform in an important game.

It’s getting to be time for Luck to eradicate the terrible games in January. He’s approaching a crossroads. Will he follow Dan Marino’s path of being an outstanding regular season performer but a notable playoff underachiever, or will he able to make a step like Eli Manning and put early-career playoff disasters behind him and produce some rings? It’s almost a given these Colts will be in the AFC playoffs once again. Will Luck be able to avoid being no small part of the reason why their season ends prematurely? He’s steadily improved in his three regular seasons, and nobody throws better on the run to the left better. To Luck’s credit, he has authored a couple of very impressive playoff outings as well. Perhaps this will be the year he dodges the season-ending clunker. 

Forecast: Indianapolis is sitting pretty. The rest of the AFC South is well behind them at the most critical position, quarterback. Andrew Luck drives this bus and he’s entering what should be his prime years with a plethora of impressive weapons. The schedule is almost too easy; Indy faces just three teams all season who had winning records in 2014. They also draw the downtrodden NFC South and uncertain AFC East.

The regular season is not what these Colts are all about, however. This team could very realistically go 15-1 in the regular season with good health and a couple of overachievers on defense. It won’t matter if the season ends the way it has the last three years in miserable playoff blowouts. On paper, this is the only AFC team with any real chance of dethroning the Patriots. I might even make them a favorite over New England if the game is at Lucas Oil Field. If ever this group is going to win the AFC, this is the year. With so many key players hitting the end of their careers, and with all other AFC contenders possessing very real flaws, the door is wide open. It’s up to Luck and a little luck whether they run through that door of opportunity or have it slammed on them once again. Even though I have major reservations about the defense, these Colts go 13-3 in the regular season and run away with the AFC South title.