This year I rated 406 prospects overall. The complete list can be found here.

The lists are broken down into five different categories this year: Quarterbacks/Running backs, Receivers/Tight ends, Offensive line (T/G/C), Defensive front (DE/DT) and Defensive back (LB/CB/S). It’s important to note these are my personal rankings after months of evaluation. To be rated I need to have seen at least two full games of a player, preferably more. This is not in any way indicative of anticipated draft order.

As a general rule of thumb, I am more wary of injuries and age as negatives than most evaluators. Character concerns are tricky because much of the information is one-sided. Convictions speak a lot louder than allegations. 

Quarterbacks

There are two QBs at the top, then a massive gap that probably isn’t adequately reflected by the numeric rankings.

Skinny notes

Winston would be #1 overall if not for the off-field maturity issues. On the field he’s every bit as good as Andrew Luck as a prospect, only a little less athletic. His football IQ and willingness to try and make the big play are both outstanding.

Mariota needs time and a coach willing to tailor the offense to his talents, which are incredible for what he does but lie outside the context of what NFL offenses typically do. High upside but it comes with the risk of never hitting it, and his easy-going persona doesn’t inspire confidence, right or wrong.

Bonner is a more classic NFL type of prospect, albeit a raw one making a huge jump in level of competition. His upside is somewhere between good Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco, but it is imperative he sits and learns. Ideal pick-and-stash project for a team with an aging established starter like the Giants or Cowboys.

Petty would be much higher based on on-field skill and potential, but he’s already 24 and has suffered a litany of injuries including a broken back, torn ACLs and multiple concussions. I would not personally draft him. Underrated athlete.

Hundley has a lot of tools but decision-making isn’t one of them. If that ever develops he will make this ranking look foolish. He could be better than Mariota.

The next grouping (from Grayson through Williams) features several guys who might stick as backups but lack enough overall game to ever be considered a starting-caliber QB. If Cato were a few inches taller he’d be at the top of this grouping. Mannion and Grayson will both be drafted much higher than ranked here. Heinicke excels at the no-huddle. Boone reminds of Kellen Moore. Williams intrigues despite not playing much after transferring from Memphis.

Of the guys beyond Williams, most will be lucky to survive more than a year on a practice squad. Lovelock and Halliday have the best chance to make a team like them enough to stick longer if they shine early in camp. Bridge is the least-accurate QB I’ve scouted in 12 years but is otherwise an athletic clone of Colin Kaepernick. Waters is coming off shoulder surgery. Wilmer is undersized though his arm and film are impressive, albeit at a low level of competition. 

Running Backs

Perhaps the deepest position in the draft, the running backs come in all shapes, sizes and styles. In fact, that makes it hard to ordinate them on an overall basis. For some teams, I would prefer certain lower-ranked players on this list over higher ones because of scheme, fit and situation.

Skinny notes

Gurley would contend for #1 overall if healthy, an explosive and complete back with only one real flaw: durability. Unfortunately he had issues with that even before tearing his ACL last December. He is a legit game-changing talent.

Gordon is just a notch below but he is proven quite durable. He’s exceptional at getting from the first to the second level with both vision and burst. There are always questions with Badger backs about transitioning to the NFL but he’s very polished and gifted athletically. I have long compared him to Robert Smith.

Duke Johnson is quite similar to Reggie Bush as a prospect coming out of USC, only a little smaller. As long as he stays aggressive and isn’t asked to run between the tackles 10 times a game, he could be special as a dual-threat back.

The next cluster of guys is where being team-specific matters in the ranking. David Johnson is the best receiving back in this class and that will matter more to some than others. Abdullah is the fastest in open space but has ball security issues and goes down on first contact more than a powerful, high-kneed runner like Coleman. Langford and Allen are both at their best attacking A and B gaps. Yeldon and Cobb are more all-around backs who lack outstanding traits but have styles which should transition well.

Small-schoolers Zenner, Crockett and Watson are all quite different stylistically and face obvious challenges with the major step up in competition, especially the bruising Watson. Zenner and Crockett both more than held their own during Shrine Game practices. Zenner brings great hands and some off-back skills. Crockett is one of the more effervescent personalities in this class and will not be outworked. Watson reminds me of Legarrette Blount.

The deeper prospects all have legit chances to make it in the NFL, even the bottom guys like Hunt and Brown. Many offer bonus value as a return man, including Hill and Murphy. Some teams view Scheuerman as a better receiving prospect than a runner. One of the keys for reserve/depth running backs is to make an impact on special teams.

I did not list fullbacks here, but there are three who made the rankings

Jalston Fowler of Alabama is ranked 110 overall and is far more than just a blocker. LSU’s Connor Neighbors ranked 319^th, while Adam Ripkowski from Oklahoma is 379^th.