With the draft less than three weeks away, smoke clouds all the draft news. In an attempt to cut through some of the haze, I talked with a host of different folks to try and get some clarity. Among the people I texted, emailed and exchanged social media back channels with over the past 8-10 days includes a current NFL Dir. of Collegiate Scouting, two area scouts from rival teams, an instantly recognizable media figure, several team beat writers, agents and fellow draft scribes I generally trust and infinitely respect.

Here is what I’ve heard and my interpretation of the smoke signals.

--A lot of people are very much of the belief the San Diego Chargers are indeed trying to deal Philip Rivers to Tennessee in order to draft Marcus Mariota.

This has been a hot rumor for a few weeks now, circulated by many in the Big NFL Media. It apparently has real legs. One scout informed me his team ran more than one draft simulation with this very trade (SD sends Rivers, #17 overall and a 4th or 5th for #2 overall) included to prepare for the contingent fallout.

I guess I understand it from San Diego’s point of view. Rivers has never quite gotten them over the playoff hump, even in his phenomenal 2013 year. He wasn’t good in 2012 and he fell back a bit in 2014, and Rivers is now 33 and entering the final year of his contract. The proverbial window appears to be closing quickly with this core, and moving Rivers allows them to transition into a new era…probably in a new city to the north.

My struggle is the Titans’ motivation. If they believe they are an aging QB who has been largely average in three of the last four seasons is going to allow them to catch the Texans--let alone the Colts--in the AFC South, they’re bat-bleep crazy. They’re at least one year and several pieces away from sniffing 8-8. Why not groom Mariota, who has potential to be greater than Rivers at his best? They already have Zach Mettenberger as a bridge until the Oregon phenom is NFL-ready.

As for the trade potential? Color me in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” camp, but I do think I’m more likely to see it than I would like to believe.

--There is very real division on the top offensive tackles.

Some teams prefer La’el Collins from LSU, including the team whose Dir. Of Collegiate Scouting I communicated with. He cited Collins as “immediate impact starter at right tackle” and also advised me he strongly believes Collins can play the left side acceptably even as a rookie.

Others favor Florida’s D.J. Humphries, who was cited by several as having the highest athletic potential. He impressed many, myself included, by weighing in at 307 pounds at the Combine after playing for the Gators in the low 280s last fall. The AFC West scout and the national media figure I talked with both cited him as the top tackle on their boards. This is fascinating, because all the scouting work on Humphries has been pretty recent; nobody expected him to declare early, neither media nor NFL teams.

Then there’s Andrus Peat from Stanford, who has all the traits of a dominant left tackle but doesn’t often play to his potential. He’s the oft-repeated chorus from beat writers about who they believe their team has on top of its rankings.

There is even an outlier who rather loudly prefers Miami’s Ereck Flowers, and his team is definitely in the market for a 1st-round tackle. He notes “you can’t teach his power” and feels too many people focus on the games where he was hobbled last fall. I’m probably guilty of that myself.

A funny thing happens when you twist the question, however. Instead of asking “who is your top tackle”, the question “who is the first tackle taken” gets a near-unanimous response: Peat. He’s going in the top 15, probably the top 10. None will go in the top 5 as it exists now, however.

--USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams is my #1-ranked player in this draft, and he’s been a universal fixture in the top 3 of mock drafts since the beginning of the season. Yet the more probing I do and the more I listen to people I trust, Williams could be a player who unexpectedly drops out of the top 5. In fact, if the Titans don’t take him at #2, I would expect him to fall to at least the 5th pick. Jacksonville and Vic Beasley are a match made in football heaven at three, while the Raiders seem intent on building around Derek Carr and improving the wide receiving or offensive line options at 4. Washington at 5 would have to strongly consider Williams, who has the positional versatility to play any spot from a 3 technique to a 7 technique. If they pass, the Jets at 6 don’t figure to be interested. Chicago at 7 has to be his absolute floor, but stranger things have--and will--happen when the NFL Draft lights are on. 

--Nobody knows where or when the corners are going, or in what order.

My personal hypothesis is one CB, Michigan State’s Trae Waynes, will go in the top 15, then there’s a gap and then a big run in the 20-40 range. That generally garners nods of approval, though I know of at least two teams who do not think Waynes is worth a first-round pick.

After that, it’s monkeys throwing flaming darts. I got such varied opinions on ordination, both in personal rankings and projected draft order, I really don’t know what to think.

Byron Jones from Connecticut is the most likely to go next, and he could come off the board anywhere from New Orleans at 13 to Detroit at 23. He’s go the Legion of Boom size and dynamic athleticism to keep him firmly in the top 25 even though his game tape screams third round to me. Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Carolina and Green Bay (if he somehow slides) have all been somewhat credibly linked to Jones, who set the world record in the broad jump at the Combine along with a 44” vertical.

Kevin Johnson of Wake Forest is the only other corner who I would confidently state is in the top 25. Many expect him to be Pittsburgh’s pick at 22, and the Steelers have not even tried to hide their thirst for cornerback help this winter.

Beyond that, I got pretty wide draft ranges for the next few corners. Washington’s Marcus Peters will be in everyone’s mock draft at 26 to Baltimore, unless the Ravens take Melvin Gordon. Utah’s Eric Rowe--a personal fave--could go anywhere from 21 to 50, as could Jalen Collins from LSU. Ronald Darby and P.J. Williams, both from Florida State, as well as Miami of Ohio’s Quinten Rollins should all expect to hear their names in the second round. Williams did recently get busted for a DUI and that could drop him, as his talent is the most questionable of the players listed here too.

If you’re looking for a surprise interloper, Steven Nelson from Oregon State is a player I’m advised could crack into that 40-60 overall mix too. 

--Another name I heard as a potential “dropper” compared to wide public perception is Shaq Thompson, the linebacker from Washington. Teams aren’t quite sure what role he can play, and his athletic testing was underwhelming for a player whose athleticism and versatility is his top selling point. Don’t be surprised if Thompson is still on the board at the bottom of the second round. He was once considered a potential top-10 talent by many, including myself. 

--Mel Kiper has been championing UCF wideout Breshad Perriman as a first-round pick for a few weeks now. This stance brought Mel much scorn, but it appears he is going to laugh last, though that is not his style. All three NFL team personnel folks I talked to indicated they expect Perriman to be off the board on Thursday night. One even backs Kiper’s bold forecast that the speedy wideout could go in the top 10, ahead of Kevin White and Devante Parker. That seems like a stretch to me, but legit 4.25 speed that does indeed show on film speaks loudly to NFL coaches, who have input on draft boards to varying degrees. Keep an eye on St. Louis at 10 or Cleveland at 12. I know the Chiefs at 18 have serious interest too.

--Some rumored team/player pairings I keep hearing:

  • New York Giants and Oregon DE Arik Armstead, though that seems awfully high for him
  • Houston and Kentucky edge rusher Bud Dupree, if he lasts to 16
  • Cleveland and Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon at 19
  • Indianapolis and Texas DT Malcom Brown
  • Carolina and Mississippi State DE Preston Smith
  • San Francisco and Auburn WR Sammie Coates, but not in the first round
  • Chicago and a speed WR in the 2nd or 3rd round, preferably Devin Smith from Ohio State