Draft Prospecting Louisville Cardinals

It might surprise many fans outside of the Derby City, but the Louisville Cardinals have a chance to be the most represented college football team on NFL Draft weekend. This despite a 9-4 finish which includes a shellacking by Georgia in their bowl game, as they broke in a new quarterback to succeed Teddy Bridgewater.

Devante Parker--one of the greatest things as an evaluator is to find something organically. I was predisposed to either Amari Cooper or Kevin White as my top wideout when I started watching Louisville games, but the more I watched the lanky Parker the more I became inclined to rank him atop my wideout board.

He missed some time with a foot injury, but when Parker came back he really impressed. The 6’3” wideout caught at least 6 passes for at least 120 yards in six of his seven games despite often facing layered coverage and outright double-teams. Parker has the best body control and strongest hands away from his body of any receiver in this draft. He is proven capable of making the acrobatic catch or sky-walking along the back of the end zone on fades. He’s an ideal red zone weapon but also a great option on crossing and combo routes.

Some will point to his lack of explosive twitchiness and average long speed as big knocks. Yet I would argue Parker understands his game quite well and adapts to not being the quickest or fastest by playing smart and using all sorts of veteran-savvy tricks. He’s mastered the subtle forearm push at the break point to knock the defender off-balance without drawing enough attention to merit a flag. He’s outstanding at framing himself as a target and using his length to shield himself with the ball in the air. His hand-eye coordination is exceptional, as is his balance. Older fans might be reminded of a bigger Keenan McCardell, a talented individual wideout in his own right but a lethal weapon when paired with a quality speed demon on the other side a la Jimmy Smith.

Detractors will also point to his apathetic blocking, but he generally stays locked up while not moving anyone. His routes aren’t always crisp and he can be leggy in making his breaks. Yet he’s so good at presenting himself as a target, innately finding the soft spot in the zone and working back to his quarterback on broken plays that it compensates. This is a future Pro Bowl talent, and should be a top 15 overall pick. He’s just a smidge below the more well-rounded and slightly faster Cooper in my wideout rankings.

Current projection: Top 20 pick

Lorenzo Mauldin--Is Lorenzo Mauldin a linebacker, a defensive end, or an edge rusher? That’s the biggest question surrounding the productive, hirsute player.

Some teams will look at his 6’4”, 259-pound, muscular frame and long arms and see a defensive end. As a pass rusher, he’s at his best starting in close quarters to the tackle and using his length and quick array of moves to beat slower blockers. Check out this clip against Wake Forest, taken from Bob Sturm’s nice breakdown for the Dallas News. That’s a move and athleticism that will work at the next level. The appeal for a 4-3 front is apparent.

Other teams will want to take advantage of his awareness against the run and solid short-area coverage skills and want to use him as a SAM backer, or perhaps even an inside backer in a 3-man front. While he’s not a lithe mover, Mauldin uses an economy of steps and covers ground quickly thanks to his smart instincts and rapid reactions. Louisville used him off the line quite a bit, and their run defense was at its best in that capacity.

One thing I don’t see is an edge rusher, though many have pigeonholed him in that role. Setting him in a Wide 9 alignment or as a rush OLB in a 3-4 takes away from his length and short-area quickness, which is where he’s at his best. He doesn’t have great burst and is not particularly strong with a bull rush. Putting him in space gives blockers time to react, and the speediness and lower body strength to torque off blocks is average at best.

As a result, I worry about Mauldin finding a role in the same way the Bears have struggled mightily to find any one thing Shea McClellin can hang his hat upon. Mauldin is longer and more innately physical as a tackler than the Bears bust, but it’s critical for his coaching staff to play to his strengths and not try to make the impressive young man into something he is not. I have no problem with a team using a third-round pick on him, perhaps even a late 2^nd, and that appears to be the range he’ll come off the board.

For a great read on his background and what kind of man the team drafting Mauldin is getting, check out this piece from Fox Sports’ Ross Jones.

Current projection: 55-75 overall pick

James Sample--often referred to as “the other safety” at Louisville to the far more notorious Gerod Holliman, James Sample is actually the better NFL prospect. He took a circuitous route to become one, starting at Washington and spending a year at JUCO before playing just one season at strong safety for the Cardinals.

Sample possesses great length at 6’2”, and he answered one of my biggest questions when he showed up at the Combine at a rocked-up 209 pounds, about 15 more than his playing weight. The newfound bulk didn’t slow him down, as he ran a 4.56 and performed well in the short shuttle to prove he has the agility to match. The extra beef will come in handy if he’s asked to continue covering tight ends, which was his primary responsibility at Louisville.

He has the ability to emerge as a complete safety, not just a “strong” or “free” safety. He will have to learn to play more in open space, which was Holliman’s role. Sample doesn’t have great vision or route anticipation, however, and that will need to be developed or else he’s just a strong safety. He is comfortable sitting in Cover zones but has some struggles with awareness playing as help for man coverage.

Sample’s at his best patrolling the intermediate range in both coverage and as a second-wave tackler. He’s not a big-time downhill thumper, but the California native is a sound tackler who wraps and lifts nicely. Some coaches will cringe at his propensity for waiting for the runner to clear before striking, but he’s quite good at it and almost never overruns or takes himself out of the play as a result. More reps and time in one system should help foster more decisiveness.

That’s a big key with Sample. Because he’s bounced around so much, he’s never really found an identity. He has the physical tools to do anything at safety, and the upshot of being in three programs in as many years is that he’s experienced at doing a little bit of everything. His best football is ahead of him, and a team with a strong teaching presence and perhaps a veteran mentor could find a very good value in the rangy junior.

Current projection: 3^rd round

John Miller--Miller is a great example of why I love to attend the postseason all-star games. I had seen some Louisville games during the fall but hadn’t taken more than token note of the burly guard, but when I got to the Shrine Game in January. Miller immediately seized my attention. He turned in consistently solid reps at both right guard and right tackle, demonstrating explosive core power and sound hand placement. The athleticism was a little shaky, but I was intrigued.

That wound up being the story on tape: lots of power, lots of questions about agility. Miller is very good in the initial fray in both and pass blocking, but it’s the subsequent action where he falls from surefire starter and potential stud to questionable prospect. His heavy hands and consistently strong hand placement allow him to seize the early advantage on most defenders, including some impressive ones from Florida State and Clemson. There is jolting power to his punch, and he follows it with brute strength in his shoulders and through his back. He’s also good at squaring his shoulders and turning his man out of the hole as a run blocker.

Unfortunately, not every play is over in 3 seconds. Miller sorely lacks the foot frequency and balance to win beyond the initial mano a mano combat very often. He lunges. He leans. He doesn’t sustain his pass protection very well, dropping his hands and losing leverage force with his shoulders. He’s not good at engaging targets at the second level, and he looks very much like an athlete whose performance wound up near the very bottom in Combine metrics.

Miller is smart enough to understand his limitations and has some little tricks to help him compensate. When he leans or overreaches, he’s at least good at staying in the way and using his mass to occupy the defender for an extra count or two. He’s played both left and right guard and has experience in pro-style sets. He’s a lower-ceiling player but offers enough to merit starting capably at the next level. Power running backs will love operating behind him.

Current projection: 5^th round.

Gerod Holliman--My inclination here is to launch into a lengthy dissertation on why focusing on interceptions as a sign of future greatness for a collegiate defensive back is about as wise as expecting the picture on the brochure you got from the unkempt drifter on the Vegas strip to match the woman who actually shows up at your cheap hotel room to “conduct business”. I’d point to David Amerson, who rocketed up (some) draft boards thanks to his opportunism his senior year at North Carolina State, only to become one of the worst corners in the league in Washington as a 2013 second-round pick.

But I don’t want to overplay that card. Holliman had an exceptionally productive year for Louisville, leading the nation by a wide margin with 14 (14?!?) interceptions as a redshirt sophomore. He did so with style, too, sporting his contrasting elbow and leg sleeves on one side and 245 return yards. I don’t care how much of that insane level of production is sheer luck. It’s a truly impressive feat.

What does interest me is what he did prior to his copious output. In 2013 Holliman failed to record a single INT and notched just 3 passes defended (PD) despite playing more than 60 percent of the snaps. He matched those three PDs in 2014, meaning he caught 14 of the 17 balls he touched. That indicates he’s got great hands. It also means teams threw at him a lot more, arguably because they were afraid of testing Sample.

Louisville deployed Holliman brilliantly. They layered coverages, often disguising their intentions pre-snap or mixing up looks with false drops by linebackers. Take this INT against Jameis Winston, and note the LB underneath (#13, James Burgess) showing a rush to create the illusion of a window.

This is brilliant schematic defense, and Holliman is the beneficiary. Alas, he fumbled the ball back to Florida State at the end of a gallivanting return.

The point here is that while Holliman demonstrated great ball skills, much of his prodigious success came as a result of the Cardinals tailoring the defense to his particular set of skills. NFL teams can do that to some degree, but NFL offensive coordinators are smarter than their collegiate counterparts. So are the quarterbacks. They will look him off. They will attack him, forcing him to commit to a role instead of roaming free to simply read the QB’s eyes and play the ball. He might get a few looks per game in that capacity, but the rest of his game will have to hold lots of water in order to facilitate that kind of Polamalu-esque freedom…

…and the rest of Holliman’s game is a leaky bag. Read any scouting report on Holliman, even those written by his most ardent supporters, and you’ll see negative comments and breakdowns of his tackling. To say he’s soft is an insult to chinchillas. Holliman injured his shoulder as a freshman and tackles like he’s still playing with it in a harness. He NEVER uses his left shoulder to tackle, and he rarely even tries to wrap behind his timid hits. Per Lance Zeirlein of NFL.com, Holliman missed 20 tackles in 2014. That’s 2 more than the rest of the Cardinals’ starting secondary combined.

Holliman isn’t a great athlete, either. He’s straight-line fast, but his change of direction is average and he often rounds his breaks. He does not play with requisite functional strength, and he shows little explosive athleticism or burst in space. His pro day results were less than encouraging, as all of these marks are below--in some cases well below--average metrics:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>One year of production, bad shoulder, tackling problems, and these pro day results? Buyer beware Gerod Holliman <a href="http://t.co/Kag69DWZ6b">pic.twitter.com/Kag69DWZ6b</a></p>— Justin Higdon (@afc2nfc) <a href="https://twitter.com/afc2nfc/status/578172754945527808">March 18, 2015</a></blockquote>

While he does have some man-cover skills, he so completely focuses on the quarterback that he loses track of his mark frequently in those situations. Take away the INTs and nobody would even consider Holliman as a NFL-caliber talent, as my good friend Justin Higdon alludes to in the above Tweet.

How much are the INTs worth as draft currency? My guess is some team pulls the trigger between the final 10 picks of the second round and the first 10 picks of the fourth. I wouldn’t draft him before the 6^th round compensatory picks.

Current projection: 3^rd round

Charles Gaines--what is it about guys named Gaines being underrated cover corners? Last year there were two, E.J. from Missouri and Phillip from Rice, and both were drafted lower than I ranked them only to turn in promising rookie campaigns. Now Charles from the Cardinals appears set to have the same sort of experience.

He’s not as promising as his namesakes, but the 5’10” Gaines made a good decision in moving to defense from wide receiver before the 2013 season. The receiving skills shine when the ball is in the air, as he is confident, strong and aggressive in tracking and attacking the pigskin. He had 7 INTs and 17 PDs in his two years, and teams gradually shied away from challenging him or else the numbers would have been higher. Gaines possesses exceptional click/close ability and very quick feet. Few corners can flip their hips and explode off breaks as well as Gaines does.

The rest of his corner game needs polish. He can be impatient and will overplay breaks, leading to illegal contact penalties and occasional toast on double moves. There is little instinctiveness in run defense, and he is often the last player reacting to the run play. Once he’s blocked, he stays blocked and often seems content in being blocked. He’s not particularly adept at being physical before the throw, offering weak jams and rarely controlling the route release point. In a deep, middle-heavy cornerback class, those are real detriments which will cause many teams to look elsewhere in the 2^nd through 4^th rounds. I would take him in the 4^th, maybe the early fourth if I’m a zone-heavy team placing a premium on ball skills.

Current projection: 4^th-5^th round

Michael Dyer--seeing the name here might make some college football fans do a double take. Isn’t that…? Wasn’t he the guy…?

Yes, that’s the same Michael Dyer. The same guy who helped Cam Newton win a national title at Auburn as one of the most dynamic freshman RBs in SEC history. The same guy who left Auburn in a hazy cloud of “undisclosed violations of team rules” after following up his phenomenal freshman year with a sophomore season that dwarfs Todd Gurley’s second season at Georgia. The same guy who transferred to Arkansas State only to get booted for drugs and weapons charges before ever suiting up. The same guy who left football for a year while getting his act together at a JUCO before finding relative salvation with the equally disgraced Bobby Petrino at Louisville.

Dyer didn’t blow up like he did at Auburn, rushing for just over 700 yards in his two years while sharing carries as part of a true backfield-by-committee. He averaged under 5 yards per carry, and he only caught five passes in those two Cardinal seasons. Then this came out…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>HC Bobby Petrino barred RB Michael Dyer from working out at the school's pro day due to the player's academic suspension in the Belk Bowl</p>— Jeff-LJ-Lloyd (@Jeff_LJ_Lloyd) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jeff_LJ_Lloyd/status/576003016236519424">March 12, 2015</a></blockquote>

So why am I still bullish on Dyer as a NFL prospect?

The vision is still there. He’s very adept at setting up blocks and cutting decisively in reaction to them. One tackler almost never brings him down thanks to the power and churn in his strong legs and thick hips. At 5’9” and 220 pounds, he’s small enough to hide behind blocks but big enough to take a licking and keep on ticking. He had some very impressive efforts against Florida State, a defense featuring as many as 10 future NFL talents.

There is a lot to prove. Pass protection and blitz pickups. Ability to digest the playbook. Maturity to handle setbacks and a very limited initial role. To me, he’s got enough natural ability to invest a 6^th round pick. He’ll likely wait longer for his phone to ring, but if he has the right attitude he can absolutely make it in the NFL.

Current projection: Potential Mr. Irrelevant or UDFA

Jamon Brown--what is it with offensive linemen named Jamon and a complete lack of mobility? You might recall Jamon Meredith, a 5^th round pick by the Green Bay Packers back in 2009. He’s been on 10 different NFL rosters since then, never quite able to stick anywhere because of a lack of coordinated athleticism and inconsistent technique.

Mr. Brown could very well endure the same fate. Physically he looks the part at 6’4” and 323 pounds with a nice bubble and long (34.5”) arms. He had solid collegiate success, starting for three years at one tackle spot or another including a year protecting Teddy Bridgewater’s blind side pretty well. Like the aforementioned John Miller, he’s at his best right off the snap, where his length and decisive actions serve him well. He has enough anchor strength to absorb bulls when he uses proper technique, and he’s good at fanning wide on his first step to make it quite a sojourn to the QB for edge rushers trying to go wide around him.

He really struggled during Shrine Game practices, where he was blocking on an island in drills. My notes on Brown from Tuesday’s practice session:

LT Jamon Brown had a horrible Tuesday. He moves his feet well but there’s no coordination between them and the rest of his movement. His hips and shoulders are not in concert and it leads to him continually overreaching or not getting enough depth and balance to wall off the edge. During positional drills he was consistently reminded to keep his hands in and elbows down, and it did not translate to team drill period.

The lack of coordinated movement is readily evident on film. The longer a play lasts, the more trouble Brown often finds. He is highly vulnerable to quick pass rushers who can go inside or outside, oversetting and getting crossed handily. He plays too upright and stiff-legged as a run blocker after the initial engagement, often popping straight up at contact instead of sinking his hips and delivering more power. Brown plods as a lead blocker out in space and while he hustles to get in front of screens, it’s clearly not a natural action for him.

A lot of what ails Brown as a prospect can be coached up. Teaching him to bend more consistently instead of rising up at engagement can be done, but it will take time and dedication. Some have suggested he should slide inside to guard, and I would strongly support a team taking Brown with a 7^th round flier and redshirting him for a year while teaching him how to play inside. As a tackle prospect, he’s not any brighter than Jamon Meredith.

Current projection: 6^th-7^th round

Deiontrez Mount--I’ll keep this one fairly short and sweet. As with Miller above, Mount is a player who I had only passing interest in until the Shrine Game practice sessions. Unlike Miller, Mount failed to impress on any level in the three days I watched him. My summary note from Detroit Lions Draft reads “very tight in the hips and is neither a pass rusher nor a cover backer, which makes it very hard to find him a viable NFL role.” When I went back and watched more Louisville games after that, I struggled to even ascertain if Mount was on the field most of the time. That’s not a harbinger of optimism going forward, though Mount does have intriguing size at 6’5” and 235 pounds, but he plays too high and sorely lacks strength. He might be worth a practice squad stash to put more functional meat on his bones, nothing more.

Current projection: 5^th-6^th round

Others who will be in camps include…

RB Dominique Brown, a hold it now hit it runner and good receiver who projects as a 6^th or 7^th rounder

TE Gerald Christian, a 6’3”, 250-pounder without much sizzle but fundamentally sound game

DE B.J. Dubose, a OLB/DE tweener who played some DT and will be a 5^th or 6^th rounder

C Jake Smith, a four-year starter who should make a solid interior line reserve as an UDFA

CB Terell Floyd, who played safety in ’14 but projects as a slot corner in the NFL

Tags: Draft, Draft Misc, NCAA

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