$.01--Congratulations to the Carolina Panthers, NFC South champs after a convincing 34-3 thrashing of the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. Two pick-sixes, six sacks, a long fumble return and constant pressure on Atlanta’s overwhelmed offense made this battle for a playoff spot a laugher.

The common narrative is to laugh at the Panthers too, for making the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record. They had a stretch where they went 1-7-1 during the season, after all. But before you chuckle the Panthers into playoff oblivion, some things to consider:

  • They’ve won four games in a row. Only Seattle enters the playoffs hotter.
  • Their defense is allowing just 10.3 points per game over the last month
  • Jonathan Stewart has rushed for 5.5 yards per carry in the last five games
  • Cam Newton remains one of the most dangerous playmakers in the game

They will host Arizona--the coldest team hitting the postseason--next week and will be rightly favored. If their young secondary can hold up, they have a chance to win more than one playoff game. Seriously.

Atlanta won’t get that chance, and it’s going to cost Mike Smith his job. Defending Smith is not easy, and the manner in which his team completely laid down in a win-or-die game ensures his death with the Falcons organization. Owner Arthur Blank might want to look long and hard at GM Thomas Dimitroff, who has made some ponderous decisions and has spent all his credit for turning the team around several years ago. The window slammed shut on these Falcons, and getting it open again is not going to be an easy task.

$.02--The Detroit Lions headed to Green Bay with the chance to capture the franchise’s first NFC North title. Not first in a few years. First ever. To do that, they had to take down the Packers in Wisconsin for the first time since 1991.

This game demonstrated why the Packers have won this division four years running and why the Lions have made the playoffs just once this century. Green Bay was the better team in the 30-20 win, making fewer mistakes and more key plays. Aaron Rodgers played through a nagging calf injury and blew away counterpart Matthew Stafford, who scattered a few great throws (notably the TD toss to the corner to Calvin Johnson) amidst an otherwise erratic outing.

Green Bay’s offense came out running against Detroit’s stalwart defense and found success. It was the first of many areas where the Packers experience and superiority shined. The Lions proved they are close enough to taste it but still cannot swallow the sweet victory. A brilliant goal-line stand was followed by a bad drive from Stafford and a Micah Hyde punt return for a touchdown where two Lions blew tackling opportunities. A great touchdown drive was followed by Sam Martin kicking off out of bounds, setting up Rodgers on a short field. Detroit blocked a long field goal to keep the game close in the fourth quarter, only to have Stafford botch the handoff to Joique Bell on the very next play.

The Packers weren’t perfect but made fewer mistakes. Rodgers returned from missing the end of the first half after aggravating his calf injury, while throwing a TD no less, and brought back with him the confidence and mantra of greatness. He was clearly hobbled but still effectively operated the offense, picking apart a very good Detroit defense by finding the weak point (hello Cassius Vaughn) and repeatedly pressing on the bruise. Green Bay’s offensive line was outstanding, better than Detroit’s fearsome front.

Then there’s the karma angle. By now you’ve seen the play in question, where Rodgers is on the ground after a throw and Ndamukong Suh steps on his wounded calf. The first step was clearly inadvertent, as Suh was keeping his balance after being pushed backward. The second step, however…let’s just say Suh gets zero benefit of the doubt, and rightfully so. This comes a week after Dominic Raiola blatantly stomped on Chicago DT Ego Ferguson, earning a suspension.

Good teams like Green Bay don’t tempt fate like that. That’s part of why they get a week to rest Rodgers’ calf and will host a playoff game in two weeks while the Lions travel to Dallas as the sixth seed.

$.03--The final game of the regular season brought an entertaining tilt between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati with the AFC North title on the line. The Steelers prevailed 27-17 in a close, hard-hitting affair.

It might have been a costly victory. Star RB LeVeon Bell left the game with a hyperextended knee on a hit from Bengals safety Reggie Nelson, a play which led to an animated discussion between Nelson and Mike Tomlin after the game. Tomlin was feisty about it in his postgame presser too, though he generally took the high road. Perhaps he wanted to not talk about one of the worst fake punts in history, or how badly his offensive line was bested by Cincy’s run defense, or their lousy red zone performance. Their win was effective but lacked style points aside from Antonio Brown’s spectacular torching of Dre Kirkpatrick on the final touchdown and his punt return which opened the scoring.

The Bengals continued their lengthy narrative of not being able to play well under the spotlight. Andy Dalton once again came up empty in a primetime affair, including a first-quarter INT where he locked onto A.J. Green so early folks were tweeting out the interception before he let it fly. Green had a late fumble to fritter away any comeback hope, the perfect sort of symbolism for these two franchises with decidedly opposing histories.

Both made the playoffs and will play next weekend. The Steelers earned the division crown and will host the Ravens in what is sure to be a black and blue (and purple) affair. Cincinnati squandered a shot at hosting a Ravens team they beat twice already and instead must travel to face Andrew Luck and the Colts. You might remember their first meeting, a big game back in Week 7. Indy won 27-0 as Dalton and the offense managed just 135 yards and eight first downs.

As long as Bell is healthy, this Steelers team is dangerous in the postseason. With Big Ben, who tied for the passing yardage title, and their skill position talent, the Steelers can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the AFC. It’s foolish to discount their chances, even against the mighty Patriots. For the Bengals, it’s a different story. You’re a damned fool if you pick them to win in Indy, even though they’re the better team on paper. Games aren’t played on paper, which is really unfortunate for Marvin Lewis and Cincinnati.

$.04--After struggling for more than three quarters, the Baltimore Ravens finally got down to business and buried a game Cleveland team 20-10. With the win and Kansas City’s somewhat surprising victory over San Diego, the Ravens qualified as the 6th seed in the AFC.

It was neither easy nor pretty. Cleveland led 10-3 with just over 10 minutes remaining and the Ravens had posted just one drive with more than one first down to that point. Joe Flacco finally heated up, making great throws to Owen Daniels (better catch than throw), Torrey Smith and Steve Smith. Baltimore’s defense remembered they were playing undrafted rookie Connor Shaw, who showed some pluck but little arm strength.

These Ravens are frustrating like that. At times their defense can smother opponents with bookend pass rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Middle linebacker C.J. Mosley can be great at times, and the tackles can be too. But they’re also often passive and uninspired.

Then there’s Flacco and the offense. They finally found some balance with RB Justin Forsett and his gaudy 5.3 yards per carry average. With Steve and Torrey Smith, they have legit downfield playmakers. Yet Flacco battles the “passive and uninspired” label a little too often too. Remember, this is a team that didn’t crack 90 yards in the first three quarters last week and went 3-and-out on the first two possessions here too. They’re a hard team to trust but an even harder team to write off.

It’s got to be frustrating for the Houston Texans, who did what they had to do to make the playoffs by beating Jacksonville but needed help from the Browns and Chiefs. The Texans play their hearts out on every snap and looked okay with Case Keenum at the controls. Hopes were high in Houston when Cleveland held the late lead, but the Browns disappointed the folks in that city too.

$.05--San Francisco knocked off Arizona 20-17 in a game that was almost incidental to the hubbub surrounding 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and his postgame fate. After going 44-19-1 in his four seasons, Harbaugh and the organization quickly and mutually parted ways in a move that many of us knew was coming back in June.

Numerous reports have Harbaugh heading to his alma mater to coach the downtrodden University of Michigan football team. He is reportedly going to Ann Arbor on Tuesday to sign on the dotted line. Before that happens, many also expect the Oakland Raiders and perhaps the Chicago Bears to try and lure him in, too. While I do trust many of the UM sources who are loudly boasting it’s a done deal, history with Harbaugh leads me to wait until he’s actually signed before believing it.

He’s leaving behind an interesting team. Colin Kaepernick did not progress as expected--and that’s absolutely on Harbaugh--but showed his incredible promise on Sunday. Their defense was absolutely devastated by injuries this year, but they’ll get back Pro Bowl LBs in Navorro Bowman and Patrick Willis next year, along with others. While veteran cogs Frank Gore and Justin Smith might not be back (Smith is retiring), there is still a lot of impressive talent on both sides of the ball. The entire team played like they knew they were serving under a lame-duck coach who was losing a bitter, not-so-private fight with GM Trent Baalke and management, which openly tried to trade him last winter after he guided the team to its third straight NFC Championship game. Further proof that staying together for the kids is a bad, bad idea.

Candidates named by NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport (among others) include current Defensive Coordinator Jim Tomsula, UCLA coach Jim Mora Jr. and former Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. Whomever gets the job will have some impressive tools at his disposal, but the tool box is rusting from the inside out and is missing a few key screws.

As for the Cardinals, it’s a very good thing they started the season 9-1 before starting QB Carson Palmer and backup Drew Stanton both went down with injuries. They limp to the playoffs at 11-5 behind Ryan Lindley, who set the NFL record for most passes without a touchdown before relying on a flea-flicker to break the dubious drought. Their defense got gashed by a mobile, strong-armed quarterback and a physical offensive line, which is exactly what they face next weekend in Carolina. A season which held such promise appears destined for a sad ending. The folks in San Francisco can commiserate.

$.06--The Cleveland Browns have a lot of problems. That is painfully obvious to the fans in my hometown. One of those problems is bad boy wideout Josh Gordon, though it strongly appears he won’t be in Cleveland much longer.

The Browns suspended Gordon, who led the NFL in receiving yards in 2013, for the loss to Baltimore because he missed Saturday’s walkthrough. He underwhelmed in his five games after returning from his latest drug-mandated suspension, looking slower and less confident in his routes and his hands. He played without any urgency or chemistry with his quarterbacks.

Of course, Gordon wasn’t the only person who couldn’t make the walkthrough on time…

 

It’s going to be a lot easier for this latest Browns regime to part with a drug-addicted wideout with dedication issues on his last NFL strike than it will be to dump the immature, undersized party-boy quarterback. Gordon has enough talent to perhaps entice a conditional pick in return, but the risk is significant for any team and the Gordon of 2014 isn’t worth the potential reward.

Cleveland’s larger issue is that both the 2014 first-round picks, Manziel and CB Justin Gilbert (also benched), have the same maturity and selfishness issues. Worse, those issues were well-known when they took both of them. The team swung and missed big on both No. 1s. They’ll get another crack with two firsts in the next draft. They cannot afford to miss on either one.

$.07--When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hired Lovie Smith back in January to be their new head coach, it was almost universally received with great fanfare. I was in Tampa that week for the Shrine Game (I’ll be there again for you draft folks!) and even other NFL teams were openly congratulating the Bucs personnel at the practices both there and the next week at the Senior Bowl.

The prevailing wisdom said Lovie would bring a steady, calming hand to a talented team that withered under Greg Schiano’s iron-fisted volatility. I bought into that for the most part as well, though I did wonder if people were forgetting just how ineffective Lovie was in his final couple of years in Chicago.

It should have been an omen when Smith’s offensive coordinator, Jeff Tedford, left the team quickly to deal with a heart ailment. Offense has been a bugaboo for Smith for eons, and the instability at the coordinator position clearly hampered new QB Josh McCown.

Now the Buccaneers will pick first in the 2015 NFL draft. Smith’s team “earned” that honor by losing to the toasted Saints, dropping to 2-14. They didn’t win a home game. They didn’t win a divisional game. They need a quarterback, as the aged McCown wasn’t the answer and second-year Mike Glennon is nothing more than a backup. They need offensive line help. They need pass rush help. They need corner and safety help. They need a middle linebacker.

Maybe they should consider a new head coach, too. Smith did nothing to demonstrate he made even one player on his roster better. As with his Chicago teams, they are arguably the easiest team in the league to prepare for, the most predictable because Smith is not a believer in tailoring game plans much for specific opponents. That worked when he had a loaded defense in Chicago, but he doesn’t have much outside Gerald McCoy, Lavonte Davis and Michael Johnson here. It’s not going to work next year, either, unless the 56-year-old Texan miraculously discovers the “shuffle” button on his playbook.

$.08--NFL Quickies

--Your team need a safety who likes to play nickel in the slot? The New Orleans Saints might have someone for you…

 

Of course that could change if a new defensive coordinator or some other coaching changes in NOLA go down.

--Chad Greenway is one of the more underrated players in the league. He was inactive in Minnesota’s 13-9 win over the Bears and many believe his Vikings tenure is over. He has an $8M deal next year that the Vikings will almost certainly cut loose. If his knee gets healthy, some team will get a very good player. Sunday’s opponent, Chicago, could use two of him.

--Chicago cornerback Charles “Peanut” Tillman called it a career in Chicago after the Bears lost to fall to 5-11. Tillman was not an elite cornerback but consistently one of the better cover men and tacklers in the league. Nobody played Calvin Johnson better. Peanut is also a wonderful, effervescent personality who will have a fine second career in the media. It was a pleasure watching him play for the Bears. Most suspect he’s retiring though Tillman has not officially done so yet.

--Some football economics for you…

 

Wallace almost certainly won’t be back in Miami after postgame reports he intentionally dogged it during the Dolphins’ loss to the Jets on Sunday.

--Adam Vinatieri missed his second field goal attempt on Sunday, just missing a perfect season. Sunday was also his 42nd birthday. He’s among many kickers who are at or very near the end, and the demand outpaces the supply. Expect the better young kickers to have some real contract leverage this offseason. And as a fellow 42-year-old, I applaud Vinatieri for still getting it done.

$.09--In light of the crush of NFL news, I’m skipping the college/draft quickies. Look for a draft piece on Wed. to help you watch the bowl games.

On Monday morning the Jets officially fired Rex Ryan, as well as General Manager John Idzik. It brings a conclusion to one of the most interesting, entertaining coaching regimes of the era.

Rex had to go, even though he remains a very good coach and the Jets will not find anyone better than him for this current roster. He lasted longer than many expected, and that’s because he adapted. While his bombastic style and swagger worked great initially, it wore thin. Rex picked up on that and became a better coach, more of a nurturer and calmer leader. He is going to do very well in his next head coaching stint, which will come in 2016 after he takes a year off to make millions in the media. I’d be shocked if he accepted a defensive coordinator role, and I do think the year off will only build his coaching market value too.

That he got this dilapidated roster to as much success as he did is a testament to Ryan’s acumen. It’s also a harsh indictment of Idzik, whom history will rank somewhere just north of Matt Millen in terms of management efficacy. Idzik couldn’t handle Darrelle Revis and his mercenary ego, and traded one of the best corners in the NFL for pennies on the dollar. He overpaid for limited talents with legit flags like Santonio Holmes and David Garrard. Many of his prominent draft picks were grossly overestimated and overdrafted: Kyle Wilson, Stephen Hill, Vlad Ducasse, Dee Milliner, Geno Smith among them.

Worse, Idzik seemed to be operating in direct conflict with how Ryan approached building a team. They were a misfit shotgun marriage with no chance along the likes of Julia Roberts and Lyle Lovett. Just as in that bizarre coupling, one partner will thrive going forward while the other fades to strange obscurity. Hint: the latter won’t be Rex Ryan.

The Jets job is probably the toughest sell of any of the openings, both for GM and coach. They desperately need a quarterback, but they also need a legit No. 1 receiver. The core group that comprised Rex’s most successful years are all getting long in the tooth and need to be replaced over the next couple years, notably the offensive line and linebackers. They do have money to spend but cannot afford to miss under the intense glare of an angry fan base and brutally harsh and hardened media in New York. The Patriots loom over them within the division, and the Bills and Dolphins are both definitively superior right now too (Sunday’s win over Miami notwithstanding). The defensive front three is probably the best in football, but the back of the defense is a disaster area. Expectations will demand immediate success, and that’s extremely unlikely for the Jets. Whomever gets the jobs here needs to have very thick skin and a magic wand.

$.10--Since it’s the end of the season, I now present my NFL awards for 2014. Note that if a player wins one award, they are removed from the equation in any other award.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers. Sunday’s win seals the deal over J.J. Watt. Have to make the playoffs to be MVP. Not sure the Packers win 4 games without Rodgers. Had the Texans made the playoffs despite starting four different QBs who wouldn’t even be Rodgers’ backup, I would have given it to Watt. Rob Gronkowski is my third-place winner.

Offensive Player of the Year: DeMarco Murray. The runaway leading in rushing yards and yards from scrimmage, Murray had a more productive season for Dallas than Emmitt Smith ever posted. He keyed the turnaround, with help from an oft-fantastic offensive line. Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Gronk all got consideration.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt. For my money he’s the best defensive player over any three-year period in the last 30 years. Really. Only other player who even merits a nod is Justin Houston, who had a monster year and wasn’t close to Watt.

Coach of the Year: Pete Carroll. It’s underappreciated how difficult it is for a reigning champ to be as good as these Seahawks were, especially after a rough start. That’s coaching. Jim Caldwell of the Lions would have won if his team had beaten Green Bay to finish 12-4 and capture Detroit’s first-ever NFC North crown. Mike McCarthy, Jason Garrett, Bruce Arians and Marvin Lewis were also considered.

Offensive Rookie: Odell Beckham. The Giants WR missed a few games but still made the biggest impact in a very deep, very good class. He’s a future superstar. Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin (my preseason pick for the award) and Cowboys G Zack Martin were all close.

Defensive Rookie: C.J. Mosley. Baltimore’s linebacker quietly topped all rookies in tackles by a wide margin (22 entering Sunday). He also had more plays on passes (10 PDs, 2 INTs) than all but three rookie DBs, doing so while taking over in Ray Lewis’ long shadow. Chris Borland and Aaron Donald deserve arguments. Kyle Fuller had this wrapped in the first half but tailed off considerably.

Comeback Player: Gronk. Yes, the Patriots tight end can go by one name. It’s easy to forget he missed significant time last year. His return meant a lot to Tom Brady’s renaissance, and the QB is a legit candidate here too. So are Demarcus Ware and Steve Smith.

Most Improved Player: Glover Quin. Detroit’s safety moved from a more generic role to a coverage-oriented one, and it keyed the Lions’ incredible defensive performance. He led the league in INTs and the Lions allowed the fewest pass plays of more than 20 yards. He was decent before, but in 2014 he was one of the five best defensive players in the NFL.

Biggest Disappointment: Robert Griffin and the Ethnic Slurs. I picked them to make the playoffs thanks to his return and rise back to rookie form, along with an improved defense to help him out. Neither happened. If anything, both got worse. Swing and a big miss. Marc Trestman and his Bears are a close second.

Biggest Surprise: The Dallas Cowboys. More specifically, how two outcast former Lions coaches converted underperforming units into good ones. Rod Marinelli’s defense went from arguably the worst in NFL history to middle of the pack despite losing its two best players. Scott Linehan’s offense showed cohesion and smart play-calling, putting dynamic players in position to make plays. I thought they would be lucky to win 6. They won 12 and the NFC East, and they’re not going to be easy for anyone in the playoffs.