The regular season is coming to an end, and for 20 teams this week concludes their 2014 campaigns. There are a few critical games, and some others where little is on the line other than draft slotting.

Last week: 10-6. That pushes the season forecast to 153-85-1. If my records are correct I need just 3 wins this week to have my best season picking since 2008, where I correctly picked 173 games.

Gambling update: I won $1500 on the Packers but gave back $500 on the Colts. The $1000 profit gets me close to the starting point, at $8500 after starting at $10000.

The Big Games

- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8.5): The winner captures the NFC North title, earning the No. 2 seed and a bye in the playoffs. The loser is almost certainly the #6 seed, which means a trip to Dallas next weekend.

Detroit has never won the NFC North. They haven’t won in Wisconsin since 1991, which happens to be the last time they won at least 11 games in the heart of the Wayne Fontes era. The odds are firmly against them.

I give the Lions a 35% chance of pulling off the improbable win. They have completely destroyed Green Bay in the last two meetings, including a 19-7 Week 3 whipping that prompted Aaron Rodgers’ “R-E-L-A-X”. Detroit’s defense is legit, and they match up very well with Green Bay’s offense because they can both rush the passer and stop the run with just the front foursome. That frees up seven guys in coverage, and some of them--notably Pro Bowl safety Glover Quin and savvy veteran CB Rashean Mathis--are really good at that.

Detroit’s issue is apt to be its own offense. They’ve sputtered far too often this season. Even though the running game is peaking lately, the play-calling continues to be an issue. So does special teams other than punter Sam Martin. I suspect the Lions will keep this one very close, but in the end Rodgers reminds everyone why he’s the MVP.

Packers 22, Lions 17 

- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4): This is the only win-or-go-home game on the docket. The victor wins the NFC South and the #4 seed, while the loser could have a worse record than the last-place team in the AFC North or NFC West.

Both of these teams are playing better lately than their 6-win records would indicate. Carolina has won three in a row after a six-game bender, which includes a home loss to these very Falcons. The Panthers defense has been the key, allowing just 40 points in those three wins and ranking 4th in yards per game allowed over that span. What’s interesting about that figure is that they rank 30th in the time frame in yards per carry allowed, at 5.3. Teams have had success running the ball, they just aren’t running it.

This strange dilemma faces the Falcons, who have been rolling offensively lately (425 yards per game in last 3). Atlanta ranks 27th in rush attempts per game, and they hit this contest without leading rusher Steven Jackson, who was placed on IR and whose career could be done. They’re a middle of the pack team in terms of yards per carry, but they tend to abandon the run and could be tempted to do so again without their bell-cow back.

I’m going to trust in Ron Rivera, the Panthers coach who is 14-3 in December and who is coaching the defending division champs more than I trust Mike Smith, who is the direct reason why the Falcons lost at least two of their games. I’m going to trust Cam Newton’s playmaking ability and a healthy Jonathan Stewart more than I trust Matt Ryan, even at home. In the unpredictable NFC South, I’ll go with the road Panthers pulling one last surprise--making the playoffs despite a 1-8-1 stretch in the middle of the season.

Panthers 28, Falcons 24

- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5): The Sunday night game decides the AFC North thanks to both of these teams winning a week ago. Cincinnati’s prime-time smacking of Denver opened some eyes to their potential, as Andy Dalton finally won a significant game under the bright lights.

If they are to win in Pittsburgh, it’s going to be Cincinnati’s defense carrying the day. The Steelers offense often purrs like the engine of the Audi A5 my wife once again failed to buy me for Christmas. Between LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown and Big Ben directing the show, Pittsburgh can be quite formidable. They proved that in the last meeting, a 42-21 whipping earlier this month.

The problem for Pittsburgh is their unpredictability. They’ve lost at home to Tampa Bay and New Orleans, eking out close wins over Jacksonville and Tennessee but have blown out Baltimore and Indianapolis. I’m going to rely on my preseason pick here. I forecast Cincinnati to win the AFC North, and I’ll ride that pony all the way home.

Bengals 33, Steelers 28

Games With Some Meaning

- San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3): San Diego controls its own playoff fate. If they win, they’re in. Their destiny got a little more positive with this somewhat surprising announcement on Friday:

 

I frequently criticize Smith for his lack of even trying to challenge down the field, but he’s got a better arm and more mobility than Daniel. The contrarian in me is secretly rooting for Daniel to throw three TDs to wide receivers, which would represent the first three TDs caught by any Chiefs wideouts this season. That would sure make for some interesting talk radio in KC as they ponder why the hometown team is watching two division rivals in the playoffs.

Chargers 24, Chiefs 14 

- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10): The Ravens must win and get help to make the playoffs. They got some help when Cleveland announced it’s going with rookie Connor Shaw at QB thanks to injuries to Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer.

I actually liked Shaw in the draft process. He finally stayed healthy his senior season at South Carolina and dramatically improved. Shaw has a decent, accurate arm and can buy time for himself. He’s tough, both physically and mentally. It wouldn’t surprise me if he sparks the offense more than Hoyer did. But asking him to win on the road against a Ravens team desperate for a victory is a real tall order.

Ravens 20, Browns 13 

- St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5): The Seahawks lock up the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win. Pete Carroll’s troops know and understand how important that will be. The Rams defense will put up a good fight, but their abysmal back-end coverage will be exposed when Russell Wilson scrambles and heaves the deep ball. The Rams' offense will be lucky to merely punt at the end of their first 9 drives.

Seahawks 33, Rams 6 

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6): Cardinals coach Bruce Arians benched QB Ryan Lindley for Logan Thomas. Then he apparently changed his mind and swapped back to Lindley, who was awful in last week’s loss. It’s like choosing between death by hanging or firing squad, an incredibly awkward position for a team that could still wind up the #1 seed in the entire NFC.

That’s not going to happen. This will be Jim Harbaugh’s last game as Niners coach. It could be Frank Gore’s last game in SF, too. And perhaps Michael Crabtree. And Anquan Boldin. And Mike Iupati. I think SF strikes up the band one last time and puts a hurting on the walking wounded visitors from Arizona.

As for Harbaugh, he and his fate be the subject of a cent in this week’s $.10. The tease: he got way too much credit simply for not being the legendarily awful Mike Singletary as a coach. He’ll go out a winner, perhaps even carried off by players who will respect how far he helped guide them until this year’s dramatic fall from grace.

49ers 26, Cardinals 11 

- Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14): The Broncos are playing for playoff seeding, including a shot at the No. 2 seed and a bye. They should probably focus on finding throws that Peyton Manning can still make, as he has apparently lost the zip on the deeper outside throws. I can’t see the Raiders pulling off the stunner, but don’t be surprised if this one is a lot closer than the two-touchdown line would indicate.

Broncos 28, Raiders 20

For Diehards

- New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4): Gut hunch here that the Saints mail it in on the road in what might be Sean Payton’s last game as their coach. The decline of Drew Brees is one of the more underrated stories of this season, and the supporting cast around him isn’t what it used to be either. Rob Ryan’s employment continues to mystify me, as he once again leads a bottom-5 defense. Mike Evans puts up a strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year for the Bucs, pulling down two more TDs…including the late game-winner.

Buccaneers 30, Saints 27

- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+7): The Colts have nothing to play for, as they will be the fourth seed no matter what happens. The Titans can secure the No. 1 overall pick with a loss and a Tampa Bay win. They figure to do their part, as Charlie Whitehurst continues Tennessee’s QB death spiral into their 10th straight loss. Humble prediction: this will be the first game to finish on Sunday as both teams just want to go home and not get hurt.

Colts 29, Titans 17 

- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3): Odell Beckham Jr. against Philly’s oft-confused coverage is the biggest mismatch of the entire weekend.

Giants 33, Eagles 30

- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6): Jay Cutler gets his job back a week after Jimmy Clausen (of all people) showed the exact testicular fortitude and passion Smokin’ Jay lacks. Will the embattled veteran learn from that?

Photo courtesy Chicago City Sports

Yeah, I didn’t think so. In this game his Minnesota counterpart Teddy Bridgewater will definitively prove Cutler is the worst starting QB in the NFC North.

Vikings 36, Bears 17 

- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6): This will almost certainly be Rex Ryan’s swan song as Jets coach. I think that’s a terrible mistake. Rex has his flaws but he’s one of the few positive things the Jets have going for them right now. He’s an infinitely better coach than Joe Philbin, who will keep his job in Miami despite an underwhelming season where his team only sporadically played to its talent level.

Jets 20, Dolphins 16 

- Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-5): The Patriots at home against AFC rivals is perhaps the biggest lock in sports. They are piranhas in a tank full of goldfish in the AFC East, having won 17 divisional home games in a row and 35 in a row versus the entire AFC in Gillette Stadium. Buffalo hasn’t won in New England since Bill Clinton was President. They’ve only won twice against the Patriots this century.

The relatively low line indicates the Bills do have a chance, thanks in part because the Patriots have nothing to play for. Then again, they played like garbage last week against the Jets and could use a positive tune-up for a playoff run. The Bills will keep it close, but Bill Belichick will coach this like it’s the Super Bowl. That, and Tom Brady vs. Kyle Orton as the QB matchup, swings the pendulum to the Patriots.

Patriots 17, Bills 16

- Dallas Cowboys at Washington (-6): I’ll be honest here: I have no clue how motivated Dallas will be with nothing to play for and several key starters who sure could use some rest for next week’s game. I have no idea how Robert Griffin will fare, or how many quarters he’ll last before another body part nearly falls off. Washington scored their chest-thumping playoff spoiler win last week. Will that be enough, or will they build off that? You’re guess is as good as mine.

Cowboys 28, Ethnic Slurs 21

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-9.5): Technically this game could launch the Texans into the playoffs. If they win and both San Diego and Baltimore lose, Houston qualifies for the postseason a year after finishing with the worst record. As I forecast a decisive Ravens win above, this will likely be too little too late for the home team.

That’s probably good for the rest of the AFC, because even with their terrible QB issues the Texans are a team nobody would want to play next week. Two playmaking wideouts, a top-tier running back and the best defensive player in the league could pull a major upset in the Wild Card round. They’ll do their part to get there, hanging a beating on a Jacksonville team that did not improve near as much as most people (myself included) expected in 2014.

Texans 32, Jaguars 17