Last Week: 11-5, advancing the overall season forecast to a sunny 143-79-1

Gambling Update: Lost two of three bets, cashing in only on the Vikings +8. The net loss of $1000 puts me deep in the hole on the year and reminds me why my wife won’t let me bet on anything other than season win over/unders. $7500 on the season after starting with $10,000.

Thursday Night

- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5): The fact this is a primetime game is embarrassing. Both teams are 2-12 and remind you why they’re so downtrodden every week. The Jaguars at least have a somewhat respectable QB in Blake Bortles, though he’s very much a rookie and hasn’t improved near as much as anticipated throughout the season. The Titans are on the QB carousel of doom, spinning from Jake Locker to Zach Mettenberger, back to Locker, back to Mett, and now to Charlie Whitehurst as the first two are both about as durable as a house made of cardboard and tissue paper. The loser here is the real winner, as they remain strongly in contention for the No. 1 overall pick.

Jaguars 17, Titans 16

Saturday Games

-  Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (+7.5): With Colt McCoy relegated to being Elf on the Shelf once again, it’s RG3’s chance to make a statement he still deserves to be the franchise QB. The way Philly’s defense has played lately, he could put up some big numbers. The problem for Washington is that its own defense is abysmal, and the Eagles offense can strike quickly. If Philly can sustain some drives longer than 4 minutes and give its defense some much-needed rest, they should cruise. Should.

Eagles 39, Ethnic Slurs 30

- San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-1): The Chargers still hold playoff aspirations, while San Francisco is now relegated to the spoiler role. All of the news around the Niners this week has nothing to do with football on the field; defensive end Ray McDonald was booted for yet off-field incident and Jim Habaugh is generating rumors he will be the next coach of the Dolphins, Raiders or University of Michigan. All three parties are absolutely certain he will choose them. Hard to focus on football with that maelstrom of distraction going on. Between that and their injury issues, it’s tough to see the Niners winning.

Then there’s this: teams who played Seattle the prior week have lost eight in a row. That was a vicious, emotional game and it ended with San Francisco getting jobbed by the officials and out of the playoffs. I can’t see them overcoming everything conspiring against them, though Philip Rivers’ back injury certainly leaves the outcome in question.

Chargers 20, 49ers 16

Sunday Games

- Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5): DeMarco Murray’s broken left hand is a major hindrance. He had two screws put in the base of the ring finger on Tuesday. I know RBs make their living with their legs, and Murray’s lower body remains fantastic, but there’s no way he can catch the ball or hold onto it with his heavily-wrapped club of a hand.

Most teams would struggle when losing a star running back like Murray, or even having him limited. But Dallas relies so heavily on controlling the clock and pace of the game by riding the NFL’s leading rusher by a country mile. You can bet the Colts will attack the bad hand, and keep in mind Murray is a guy who has a history of fumblitis. I don’t like the concept of Dallas having to throw a lot, or the prospect of Tony Romo needing to outgun Andrew Luck. Don’t forget Dallas is much better on the road than at home. I’ll take $500 on the road underdogs.

Colts 30, Cowboys 28

- Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): There are several questions in this game, none of which I can honestly forecast with any degree of reliability:

- Will Pittsburgh’s offensive line hang in there against Kansas City’s great pass rush and bitzing?

- Will Alex Smith even try to throw a pass to a wide receiver, let alone break their year-long TD drought?

- How do the Chiefs handle Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and the talented Steelers WRs without Eric Berry?

- Can Pittsburgh’s poor tackling and hit-and-miss defense contain Jamaal Charles?

I don’t really have any clue who is going to win this game, but it’s rife with playoff implications and should be an entertaining game. I’ll tepidly trust the home team.

Steelers 28, Chiefs 27

- Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+5.5): The Texans' QB situation is a dire disaster. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage all out with injury, Houston turns to Case Keenum. While he’s got some experience with the Texans, last week at this time he was on the Rams’ practice squad. Keenum has good accuracy, which will be a shock to Houston’s quality receivers accustomed to the wildness of Fitzpatrick and Mallett, but he holds the ball far too long and lacks oomph behind his throws. Houston’s defense will keep it close, but unless J.J. Watt scores I cannot see the home team ruining Baltimore’s playoff drive.

Ravens 24, Texans 14

- New England Patriots at New York Jets (+11.5): Can Rex Ryan dial up one last heroic stand against his historical nemesis Bill Belichick? His Jets always give Tom Brady a hard time, and I do think they’ll find a way to keep the score low. Ryan’s problem is his offense, which is in legit peril of getting blanked at home here. The Patriots are never a good buy when giving more than 10 points, but it’s really hard to see them losing this one.

Patriots 17, Jets 6

- Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Saints (-7): The Saints can eliminate the Falcons from the playoffs with a win at home. New Orleans always beats Atlanta in the Superdome, having won 7 of the last 8. Moreover, when Atlanta has a losing record the string is even longer. New Orleans hasn’t lost at home to a sub-.500 Falcons team since 2001.

This is one of the NFL’s best rivalries, and I expect an intense game with a lot of big hits. Oh wait, these two teams feature lousy defenses facing off against passing games which can get hot and carve up the field. There might not be many hits at all. I think the coaching advantage in this one leans heavily towards the Saints and Sean Payton. Read that more as an indictment of Mike Smith, who seems to find ways to put his Falcons at a disadvantage.

Saints 33, Falcons 30

- Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins (-7.5): I’m not sure the sinking Dolphins are a touchdown better than any team with more than three wins right now. They’re certainly not a touchdown better than the Vikings, who are playing good football on both offense and defense. Minnesota still makes too many mistakes--that happens with a rookie coach and rookie QB--and I think that hands Miami the win at home, but I expect this to be a kicking battle. Three missed FGs last week, including a block, give me little confidence Blair Walsh and the Vikings can win one of those.

Dolphins 19, Vikings 16

- Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (NL): Johnny Football will play better in his second start. You can write that in permanent marker on his inflatable drinking swan or money phone. The speed of the game won’t shock him this week.

What concerns me for Cleveland is the rest of the offense around Manziel wasn’t sharp either. Last week was arguably the worst game of the season for their OL. It wasn’t a good game for the wideouts, either. The Panthers are entirely unreliable and unpredictable, but at home in a game they desperately need to win to stay in the NFC South race, I think they handle Manziel and the Browns sputtering offense. I like the Derek Anderson revenge angle if he plays, though it appears Cam Newton will start.

Panthers 21, Browns 13

- Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (+5.5): Classic letdown game for the Bills? They beat the mighty Packers last week, and now face a Raiders team that laid down like dogs to the rival Chiefs. The Raiders have alternated good and bad games, so they are due for an uprising.  It can happen, folks…

..except it’s not going to happen. Buffalo’s defense is going to create serious issues for Derek Carr & Co., and they can bottle up Latavius Murray too. The Bills have playmaking wideouts who present major challenges for Oakland’s back seven, which isn’t awful but winds up guessing a lot in coverage and misses too many tackles.

Bills 26, Raiders 17

- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+9.5): This is a classic trap game for Detroit. After squeaking past a tough Vikings team last week and with the NFC North on the line in Green Bay next week, here sits the 5-9 Bears. In prior years I would go overboard predicting a humiliating loss for my Lions, who couldn’t handle this sort of situation whatsoever. But these are not the Same Old Lions, and I can’t see Jim Caldwell’s team falling victim to overconfidence or complacency with a chance to clinch a playoff berth on the line.

Also, look at the Bears…Oh. My. God. During this week, reports came out that Marc Trestman will be fired and Trestman subsequently benched Jay Cutler for Jimmy Clausen. The impact was demonstrated in Vegas. This game opened with the Bears getting 4.5 points. Even with Cutler, the highest-paid QB in the league this year, the line moved up to 7.5. In the 12 hours since Clausen was promoted, the line spiked to 9.5. The number is over 10 at some books. I hope you got in early!

Lions 37, Bears 11

New York Giants at St. Louis Rams (-5.5): The Rams' offense scares no one. The Giants' defense stops no one. St. Louis cannot cover Odell Beckham. New York cannot block Robert Quinn. Neither team can make the playoffs. Neither team moves the excitement meter in either direction at this point.

Rams 25, Giants 20

- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5): Before you completely write this game off as a Green Bay win, consider that Aaron Rodgers has two of his worst career outings against the Pewter Pirates in Tampa.

 

Rodgers is coming off a terrible game in Buffalo, where he was bad and his receivers even worse. Could that really happen again?

In a word, no. In a few more words, no chance in hell with Lovie Smith’s Tampa defense with a gimpy Gerald McCoy now on IR. This one is gonna be ugly for the home team. I’ll take the Pack for $1500.

Packers 47, Buccaneers 14

- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+9): Arizona turns to Ryan Lindley as the starting QB. History is not on their side…

 

Even worse, one of those starts came against Seattle. Lindley’s line in that game? He was 8-of-17 for 59 yards in a 58-0 loss. Arizona’s defense is too good to give up even 28 points, but it’s really hard to see the Cardinals offense finding any success against Seattle’s rollicking D. The Seahawks desperately need the win for playoff purposes, and a win here keeps the NFC West title and a potential playoff bye still in play.

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10

Monday Night

- Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5): Last week the Bengals faced Johnny Manziel. This week they draw Peyton Manning. That’s akin to going on a date with Madeline Albright one week and trading up to Scarlett Johanssen the next. Yet Manning lately has been like Johanssen after a long night on the town, looking tired and not all that fantastic.

Denver’s offense is not the same record-setting unit, and Manning’s downfield throws are less frequent and less successful by the week. The Bengals have an underrated safety duo that can present some problems, as well as a pass rush that can make Peyton uncomfortable. The weather in Cincy could be a factor as well. The extended forecast predicts temps around 40 with a chance of rain at game time. The Bengals desperately need to win, while the Broncos have already wrapped up a playoff berth.

It sure seems like the Bengals have a lot of forces in their favor. That tends to be when fate is a cruel vixen for Cincinnati. I sense a sharpening stone for Manning. I sense a rough night for Andy Dalton against Denver’s strong defense. I see a tough go for A.J. Green and Jeremy Hill when their fantasy owners need them most.

Broncos 30, Bengals 20