Football Meteorology For Week 15

We are in the home stretch of the season. Fantasy football playoffs are under way…if you’re lucky enough to still be alive. One of my two teams is still going strong, but my neighbor Randy quickly snuffed out my #1 seeded team. C’est la vie!

Last week: 11-5 with a couple of forecasts that nearly nailed the final scores as well. 132-74-1 on the season

Gambling update: I wagered $1000 each on the Patriots and Lions and won, but I lost $500 on the 49ers. The strong profit takes me back up to almost even on the season, at $8500 after starting with $10,000.

Thursday Night

- Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (-3.5): It might surprise that the 6-7 Rams are favored over the 10-3 (and current #1 seed in the NFC) Cardinals, but extenuating circumstances validate the books. St. Louis has back-to-back shutouts and are healthier than at any point in the season. Arizona has lost its starting QB and now starting RB, with Andre Ellington now gone. Star cornerback Antonio Cromartie, a much more effective cover man than the more celebrated Patrick Peterson, is iffy with a bad ankle.

The Cardinals got their much-needed win last week, and I think the short week and giant exhale with the win over the Chiefs leaves them gasping for air against a smothering Rams defensive front. This is a great week to have the Rams defense on your fantasy team. Not a good week for any offensive player on either team, as the first team to double-figures will win.

Rams 16, Cardinals 12

Sunday Games

- Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3.5): In doing a little research on this matchup, I found it fascinating that this is the third time the 8-5 Chargers have been home underdogs this season. That’s a hellacious schedule, though they did beat Seattle outright in Week 2.

San Diego has to win this game, period. They’re not going to win both at San Francisco and at Kansas City in the final two weeks, and it’s going to take 10 wins to make the playoffs. Given how Denver’s passing offense has sputtered recently, there is a real chance. For that to happen, Philip Rivers is going to have to be at his best and avoid the misreads and accompanying histrionics.

I don’t see it coming to fruition. While Peyton Manning has been substandard lately, with three QB Ratings below 86 in his last four weeks, I think he gets hot in San Diego--both figuratively and literally. The warm weather will snap him out of his chill. As long as the offensive line protects him from Melvin Ingram, that is…

Broncos 30, Chargers 24

- Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7.5): The Patriots can clinch the AFC East for what seems like the 20th year in a row. Miami is dangerous when playing in odd-numbered weeks, and their defensive front should give the Dolphins a fighting chance. Tom Brady has had some odd bouts of scattershot throws, too. Yet losing safety Louis Delmas really hurts Miami’s back end, more for his strong run support than his guesswork in coverage. New England’s RB du jour takes advantage and the Patriots run out the clock on Miami’s fledgling playoff hopes.

Patriots 23, Dolphins 20

- Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills (+5.5): The Packers appear unstoppable, but the Bills defense is capable of creating some problems for Aaron Rodgers. They can get pressure both from the edge and up the gut and they can do it rushing just four and dropping seven into coverage. That’s exactly how Detroit held these Packers to just 7 points earlier in the season, albeit against a less relaxed Rodgers.

The problem for Buffalo is scoring enough to hang around. Green Bay’s defense is inconsistent and vulnerable when the pass rush isn’t getting home (see the Monday night game against Atlanta), and the Bills do have a very talented receiving corps. Unfortunately their quarterback is Kyle Orton. It would take at least one defensive or special teams score for Buffalo to stick within a touchdown based on that quarterback matchup.

Packers 27, Bills 17

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5): I really gained respect for Atlanta in the second half of the Monday night loss to Green Bay. Their defense came alive, and I think that is something they can carry over. The Falcons will need every bit of it, because Pittsburgh’s offense is smoking hot after erupting for 42 last week in Cincinnati. This is the most unpredictable game on the slate; wager at your own peril.

Steelers 33, Falcons 30

- Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+1): All eyes will be at the end of West 3rd St. for the starting debut of Johnny Manziel, finally named Cleveland’s starter after weeks of Brian Hoyer futility cost the Browns any real chance at the playoffs.

I’ve consistently stated my opinion on Manziel: I have no idea if it’s going to work, but it’s going to be fascinating to watch it play out. His improvisational ability is a nightmare for defenses, but it can also be a nightmare for his own teammates when he goes off-script without reason.

Given how much trouble Cincinnati’s defense had last week with Pittsburgh’s free-flowing offense, Mr. Football might have quite a debut. The Browns defense will have its say as well, and they embarrassed Andy Dalton & Co. in the first meeting. Dalton will be better here--it’s physically impossible to be any worse--but I think the Dawg Pound will bark happily at a pick-six that wins the game and further jumbles the giant chaotic mess that is the AFC North.

Browns 24, Bengals 21

- Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5): Andrew Luck vs. J.J. Watt. Yum. Two of the top five MVP candidates, and they directly face each other.

Even though the Colts have won the last four meetings, Indy is beat up physically. Houston’s defensive line is going to give Luck and the Colts problems, but Indy’s recent ground resurgence is a very good sign. The Colts have rushed for over 5 yards per carry in the last month, and that sort of offensive balance will allow them to seize the win over the pesky Texans and clinch the AFC South.

Colts 23, Texans 17

- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-8): I broke down this game at Bleacher Report, and one of the themes from that piece is Minnesota is no easy win for Detroit. The Lions are the better team and I think they’ll show as such, but the Vikings are not going to make it easy. Detroit’s defensive front getting pressure on an improving Teddy Bridgewater is the big key, but Matthew Stafford needs to be wary of another rapidly improving Viking: corner Xavier Rhodes. He’s been outstanding lately, and his size gives him a decent matchup chance with Calvin Johnson. Should be a good week for Golden Tate going against Captain Munnerlyn, who was torched repeatedly last week when he wasn’t guilty of interference. $500 on the Vikings to keep it within 8 points.

Lions 20, Vikings 13

- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): This is a death-gasp game for Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers, who need to win out and still get a little help to make the playoffs. To pull that off, they’re going to have to score a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Amazingly, that’s not something they’ve done well.

Colin Kaepernick has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter, which almost seems impossible for 13 games. The Niners are dead last in 4th quarter points, touchdowns and first down differential. Seattle hasn’t allowed a single point in the 4th quarter in the last month and their defense is playing better than ever since Bobby Wagner returned at linebacker. Even if the Niners keep it close, they have zero ability to close out the game. The line seems high, but then again SF just lost to a one-win Oakland team. I think the rivalry keeps this close, but I’ll be stunned if Seattle loses in a game they also desperately need for playoff purposes.

Seahawks 24, 49ers 16

- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5): I’m one of the last people to pile on Tony Romo, but his December woes against these Eagles are awfully hard to ignore. Even though he’s been great on the road this year--Dallas is undefeated away from Jerry World--I just can’t get the epic choke jobs of seasons past out of my head.

Then again, Romo might not get the chance to piss yet another NFC East title away. Philly’s offense was humiliated last week by Seattle, and there is too much talent and schematic genius present for that to happen again. The Eagles might not punt more than three times in 13 possessions. I expect the Eagles to light up Lincoln Financial Field with a cornucopia of points. Oops, I mixed up my holiday metaphors there…$1000 on the Eagles to win going away

Eagles 40, Cowboys 26

- Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5): The Raiders are playing better, and they already have a win over these Chiefs. I’m very confident Kansas City will return the favor, but there’s no way this punchless KC offense is 10 points better than anyone. Inconceivable! $500 on the Raiders to cover. Inconceivable!

Chiefs 16, Raiders 13

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5): For some reason I mistype the word “Baltimore” more than just about any other word. Sometimes it’s “Blatimore”, others it comes out “Balmitore” or even “Abltimoer”. Such are the travails of a football writer. The only one I consistently type incorrectly more often is Cardinals, which invariable comes out “Cardinlas”. I have no problem with Jacksonville, other than their offensive chances in this game. The Ravens tend to play to the level of competition, so be careful with your money.

Ravens 30, Jaguars 20

- Washington at New York Giants (-6.5): I’m sure the network executives projected this as the marquee game back when the schedule was announced. Instead it’s a yawner other than the coaching/quarterback controversy in Washington or the potential upheaval of the same positions in New York after the season. Hard to sell that during the game with two weeks still remaining.

Giants 36, Ethnic Slurs 28

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5): Cam Newton’s car accident and broken transverse process in his back throw this outcome very much in doubt. The Panthers’ defense is bad enough that receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson could wind up outscoring backup Derek Anderson throwing to Kelvin Benjamin. The rookie wideouts, Evans and Benjamin, are an intriguing draw. The Panthers will sell the “win for Cam” angle, but I’m not sure they’re talented enough to do that. Then again, I’m not sure the Bucs are good enough to capitalize.

Panthers 20, Bucs 17

Monday Night

- New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+3): The fact the Bears are getting points at home to a New Orleans team coming off a 41-10 blowout loss at home to a bad Carolina team tells you all you need to know about how Chicago’s season has gone.

I’ve been suckered three times now by Chicago, predicting a resurgence only to see them lay down in a pile of inept, uninspired goop. I’ll assume the classic weatherman stance here: Chicago has a 30% chance of rising up and blowing out the Saints with an unexpected gust of offensive brilliance from Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. It’s enough of a chance that if it were a rain forecast, you should probably bring along the umbrella, though you’ll probably keep it closed up. While it’s not a compelling matchup, points should rain down in Soldier Field between two of the worst-coached and staffed defenses.

Saints 39, Bears 35

Betting recap:

Philadelphia -3.5 for $1000

Minnesota +8 for $500

Oakland +13.5 for $500