The playoff races are really crowded in both conferences, though there are chances for two different teams to clinch berths this week. It’s also the weekend where the college football playoff is resolved and the bowls are announced, which is a very exciting time. 

Last week: 10-6, pushing the season forecast to 121-69-1.

Gambling update: Last week provided an abject lesson in why I only gamble on football games hypothetically. I rode the Dolphins -5.5 hard, and they rode me into the poor house. The $1500 loss puts me down $3K on the year. The bright side is that my real-life wager on season win total +/- hit twice last week when San Francisco and Tennessee both lost and ensured the under for the year.

Thursday Night

- Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (+3.5): The Cowboys haven’t lost on the road yet this year, while the Bears are just 2-3 at home. Chicago’s defense is in dire straits, paying lots of money for nothing at all three levels. There’s little hope they can contain the potent Dallas offense to less than 30 points, certainly not with the passive coverage they showed last week in Detroit.

Yet for some reason I think Chicago’s offense erupts here. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Alshon Jeffery. They’re due for a big game, and the Eagles exposed Dallas’ own passivity problems in their Thanksgiving game. This Bears offense torched the Cowboys for 45 last year. While the Dallas defense has improved, they peaked early and are sliding. The slide continues in Chicago, where the home team taunts the loyal fans with an impressive upset win to keep the playoff hopes hanging by a thread and reminding the Soldier Field faithful why many (myself included) picked the Bears to win the NFC North.

Bears 37, Cowboys 34

Sunday Games

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5): There are a few reasons why I like the Bengals here:

- Cincy’s pass defense is its strength, and they don’t give up big plays. Pittsburgh’s passing offense is predicated on the big play.

- Pittsburgh’s offense is vastly inferior on the road compared to at home. Big Ben has thrown just 6 TDs in six road games and they average 7 fewer 1st downs away from Heinz Field.

The Bengals have proven clutch in December, while the Steelers often freeze.

Because both these teams are wildly inconsistent, it’s a tough forecast. Still, I’ll lean on the info above and ride the home team.

Bengals 30, Steelers 28

- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10): Denver’s offense struggled against St. Louis’ strong pass rush, and the Bills are very adept at putting pressure on the quarterback form both the edge and up the gut. I think they’ll give Peyton Manning some problems, but the same will be true in the other direction. Kyle Orton has been unimpressive and inefficient against everyone but the Jets, and you cannot beat the Broncos without being dynamic on offense. I suspect this one will be close until the fourth quarter when the home team finally pulls away.

Broncos 30, Bills 17

- Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals (-1): The Cardinals are tumbling quickly with Drew Stanton at the controls. Two straight losses are bad, and his final three quarters of his first start were wildly ineffective as well. This is an interesting game for Arizona because the threat of falling from 9-1 to missing the playoffs is very real if they can’t beat the Chiefs.

Kansas City would have a much better chance of winning if they had someone more aggressive than Alex Smith at quarterback. His stubborn refusal to even consider throwing over the deep middle makes their offense far too predictable and easy to defend. Teams blitz safeties at them with regularity and Smith never stands in to challenge the vacated area. He doesn’t have good receivers and that certainly plays a role in his reluctance, but it’s asking too much of Jamaal Charles to do everything for the offense. It can work against lesser defenses but not against these Cardinals. As long as Stanton produces more points for his own team than the enemy, Arizona wins. Seriously, that might not happen; Stanton can be that bad.

Cardinals 15, Chiefs 13 

- Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-1): Another potential NFC Championship game preview takes places in Philadelphia. Doesn’t it seem like there’s one of those every week involving different teams? Dallas vs. San Francisco was touted as such. So was Arizona vs. Detroit. Some cocksure souls will even bill the Green Bay/Atlanta tilt this week as one.

Out of all those potential matchups, this is the one which seems most likely to actually feature a rematch in mid-January. Seattle’s defense is playing back at a championship level, flying all over the field and locking down outside receivers. Philadelphia’s offense is finally clicking with the healthier offensive line and Mark Sanchez (of all people) making prudent, quick decisions with the ball. It makes for a heck of a matchup, strength vs. strength. I like Seattle’s defense a little more than Philly’s offense, pero solo poquito. Senor Sanchez me asusta. Temo mas perdidas de balon. Sorry, had to help my son with his Spanish homework. Have a cookie if you understand the foreign language there.

Seahawks 24, Eagles 21

- Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): I disagree with the move by Browns coach Mike Pettine to go back to Brian Hoyer as his starting QB. Hoyer has been terrible lately, ranking 34th in passer rating over the last month. 34th when there are only 32 teams is really, really bad. I’ll reiterate my summer position on Cleveland’s quarterback situation; I don’t know if Johnny Manziel is the answer, but I do know Brian Hoyer is not. No chance Hoyer wins a shootout against Andrew Luck, though it is worth considering the cold weather here.

Luck is from Houston, where the winter temps seldom dip below 40 (and man do I miss Houston this time of year!). The current forecast is for temps around 36, though with little wind and bright sun. Perhaps the cold will be Luck’s kryptonite as it has been Peyton Manning’s? Be careful on overconfidence, and if you’re thinking Trent Richardson is going to have a big revenge game against his former team you’re going to be disappointed. Cleveland’s run game will keep them close, but Hoyer doesn’t have the magic to put them over the top. Johnny Football? I guess we’ll have to wait to find out…

Colts 27, Browns 24

- Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10): The Saints have lost three in a row at home, yet last week they upended the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They get the Mercedes Super Dome back on track with the incompetent Panthers, who have shown little propensity for doing much of anything right lately.

Saints 33, Panthers 17 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-10): Last year the 2-8 Bucs drove into Ford Field in Detroit and did doughnuts around the 6-4 Lions. Mike Glennon hit Tiquan Underwood for an 85-yard bomb over Chris Houston as Louis Delmas decided to tilt at a short windmill instead of playing deep safety. Tim Wright abused Stephen Tulloch in a game that put Wright on the map. I study the draft for a living and I only marginally knew of Wright, a hybrid TE/WR from Rutgers.  The Bucs won that game 24-21 thanks to five Detroit turnovers in a game most Lions fans recall as the tipping point to having Jim Schwartz fired.

Every player and coach listed in the above paragraph is removed from the equation, and that strongly tilts the game towards the home team. Matthew Stafford is doing a much better job taking care of the ball, and the Detroit running game is finally perking up. The Detroit defensive line against its Tampa counterpart is a huge advantage, too. The wagering public agrees, as this game opened at 8.5 but shot up to 10 in less than 24 hours. I’m still confident in my Lions, putting $1000 on the cover even at the inflated number.

Lions 27, Buccaneers 10

- St. Louis Rams at Washington (-3): Washington traded a king’s ransom to St. Louis for the right to draft Robert Griffin and install him as the franchise quarterback. This game should have provided the triumphant validation of that bold move. Instead, RG3 is on the bench in favor of Colt McCoy…who is the player I strongly advocated the Rams draft instead of Sam Bradford back in 2010. Bradford is injured (again) and Shaun Hill directs the scattershot St. Louis offense, proving the Rams’ confidence in Bradford which allowed htem to trade away the shot at RG3 was equally dumb. Man this preview took a decidedly negative turn…

Rams 20, Ethnic Slurs 16

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6): The Jaguars are coming off an outstanding comeback win over the Giants, finally showing some of the moxie and energy that coach Gus Bradley effuses. However, the last time they won they stumbled badly in the next outing. I strongly believe J.J. Watt and the Texans force a repeat of that 27-13 loss at home to Miami. In fact, I like the score too.

Texans 27, Jaguars 13

- San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (-9): The Raiders lost 52-0 last week to the Rams. How in the world the Niners are only favored by 9, even after a lackluster showing in a Thanksgiving loss to Seattle, baffles me. It says a lot about how little confidence there is in the Niners, because the Raiders are capable of truly awful play. I’ll risk $500 that the Niners get it right this week even with all the hubbub circling about coach Jim Harbaugh’s fate. For the record, I’ll be shocked if Harbaugh winds up coaching at either the University of Michigan or San Francisco next year. He could very well wind up coaching these Raiders, though this game might not be the audition they want for their potential messiah. Then again, being so hopeless might play to Harbaugh’s massive ego.

49ers 29, Raiders 13 

- New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-4): I would have liked the Chargers a whole lot more in this one if the Patriots weren’t so visibly angry about last week’s bruising loss. Tom Brady was not sharp, nor were his receivers. I’m not expecting that to happen again. San Diego is a good football team, but the Patriots are apt to expose their weaknesses (pass protection, third down defense, turnover margin) in a way that will not be pretty. I love New England getting points, even on the West Coast. $1000 on the visiting team.

Patriots 34, Chargers 22

- New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-6): I love that the Jets threw the ball on 13 times Monday night. Rex Ryan deserves credit for trying to play to his team’s strength and mitigate the weakness. Even then, they still weren’t good enough to beat a flat Dolphins teams. The Vikings are quietly playing pretty good football, and this game will leave Jets fans wondering why their team didn’t try and get Teddy Bridgewater.

Vikings 26, Jets 16 

- Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3): Two 7-5 teams that need help to make the playoffs get a chance to pick up an invaluable tiebreaker. This figures to be a defensive struggle, as both are in the top 10 in scoring defense and both offenses are inconsistent. I lean toward Miami’s top-ranked pass defense, which is first in QB Rating allowed, first in yards per attempt and sixth in sack percentage. The Ravens rank 25th, 25th and 13th in those categories. That tells me Ryan Tannehill will have more opportunities than Joe Flacco, though Baltimore’s run game with Justin Forsett helps even the ledger. So does the Ravens’ strong performance on third downs, where they convert almost 44% of the time. Miami’s defense is very good but can struggle to get off the field on third downs, and that allows Baltimore to extend some drives. If it comes down to a kicking battle--and this is where the third downs come into play--Baltimore’s Justin Tucker is a big advantage over Miami’s Caleb Sturgis. I see Tucker making a game-winner as time expires.

Ravens 20, Dolphins 17 

- New York Giants at Tennessee Titans (+1.5): It’s not often a 3-9 team is a road favorite. But with Tennessee QB Zach Mettenberger iffy with a shoulder injury and big-play threat Justin Hunter still hospitalized with a lacerated spleen, I can see why. The Titans defense is game, and they can pressure Eli Manning into some bad decisions. Unless one of those winds up in the opposing end zone, I don’t see the home team pulling this one out. Uh oh, what is that? It’s my hands refusing to type a Giants victory. I’m not going to fight the surge coming over my digits.

Titans 24, Giants 22

Monday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-12.5): Atlanta finally beat a team outside the NFC South last week, humbling the now 9-3 Cardinals. These 9-3 Packers will present a much stiffer challenge. The difference in facing Drew Stanton to Aaron Rodgers at quarterback is the difference between getting a yappy little terrier and a hungry wolf. I do think Atlanta’s offense will move the ball and find some success. Matt Ryan might even throw for three touchdowns. That should be good enough to match Green Bay’s first-half score. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Rodgers & co. will get another half to add onto that total. And they will. Sweet mercy they will.

Packers 41, Falcons 27

Betting recap:

New England +4 for $1000

Detroit -10 for $1000

San Francisco -9 for $500

College picks

Northern Illinois 34, Bowling Green 33

Wisconsin 22, Ohio State 20

Alabama 44, Missouri 6

Arizona 33, Oregon 27

Kansas State 35, Baylor 31

Florida State 20, Georgia Tech 17