Last Week: Into every life a little rain must fall. On this life, it poured. The worst week in over 10 years of picking games wound up 4-10. 98-61-1 on the season. 

Gambling Update: The yearly profits were washed away in the deluge of bad picks. I lost all $2000 wagered on three games, putting me $500 in the hole on the season. Anyone want to lend me a debit card?

Thursday Night

- Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+8): The wider world of football fans gets to see a winless Raiders team in prime time going against a Chiefs team that just beat the defending champion Seahawks. I know the marketing gurus will trumpet the intensity of the rivalry and the Marcus Allen saga, but the plain fact is this won’t be a very entertaining football game. The Chiefs still haven’t thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver, not exactly the kind of sizzle to sell a stinker of a game. The Raiders do play hard, and rookie QB Derek Carr has shown real promise. They’re just not talented enough to compete without the other team playing poorly.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 16

Sunday Games

- Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1.5): Echoes of past playoff failures haunt the Bengals in Reliant, where the Texans notched the only two postseason wins in franchise history at their expense. Andy Dalton was worse than awful in those two contests: 41-of-72, barely five yards per attempt and four INTs to zero TDs.

Those Texans teams were a lot better than the current incarnation, however. Dalton, a native of nearby Katy, is due for some vengeance. I think he got his legendary bad game against Cleveland out of his system. Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom before climbing to greater heights. Having Jeremy Hill and a return by Giovani Bernard to run the ball to balance the offense sure helps. I’m banking on at least one dumb penalty from safety D.J. Swearinger to help extend a drive, too. Ryan Mallett was decent in his first game, but now opposing teams have game film to evaluate and plan around. Cincinnati takes advantage and exorcises some recent playoff demons.

Bengals 24, Texans 20

- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): I don’t care that this game is in Seattle, where the Seahawks are a significantly better team. No way is any team deserving of being a touchdown favorite over these 9-1 Arizona Cardinals, not with the way their defense can cover and create havoc up front. Not with their bevy of outside weapons and aggressive tactics. Not with the runaway coach of the year in Bruce Arians plotting out another masterful game plan. Will Seattle win? Maybe. Will they win impressively by more than a touchdown? I wouldn’t bet on it.

Seahawks 19, Cardinals 17

- Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-7.5): Prevailing wisdom is that the Broncos will be howling mad after their embarrassing performance last week. But I’m not so sure their angst will lead to success here. Miami has a very good defense, able to consistently get to the QB by rushing just four and dropping seven into coverage. They’re very good at bottling up the run, too. With all the missing or walking wounded Broncos offensively, Peyton Manning could very well struggle once again. Don’t forget they were sluggish for most of the game against lowly Oakland the week before St. Louis smothered them.

It’s Denver’s defense that will lead them to victory over the inconsistent Miami offense. I don’t trust Ryan Tannehill in the cold against his old Texas A&M teammate Von Miller, and Miami’s dink-and-dunk offense will not create the big plays necessary to attack the questionable Denver back end. The Dolphins will keep it close and low-scoring, but in the end Denver is the more trustworthy and proven team in these sorts of situations.

Broncos 21, Dolphins 16

- Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-6.5): The Rob Gronkowski touchdown catch and run last week is one of the scariest things I’ve ever seen on a football field. Going against NFL players, Gronk looked like the roller coaster crashing through the shaving cream at the bottom of the hill. He was not going to be denied.

The Lions have the best chance of anyone to slow down Gronk and the high-flying Patriots offense. And I think that’s exactly what Detroit will do--force Tom Brady to beat them with someone else besides the All-World tight end. If you’re one of the suckers who picked up Jonas Gray for your fantasy team, you’ll be dribbling the drool of remorse into the pillow of regret for starting him against this defensive front. Nobody runs on the Lions, period. Detroit has the ability to make the offense one-dimensional and also to limit Gronk. I think Brady will find some success against the league’s stingiest defense, but no more than two TDs and two field goals.

The question then becomes if the Lions can outscore that. Unless Matthew Stafford plays significantly better behind his patchwork OL, the answer is a resounding no. The underachieving unit continues to be the Achilles heel of what is otherwise an outstanding overall team. The Patriots ability in coverage will do enough to fluster Stafford, and his propensity to stick to his primary read will lead to an untimely turnover that puts the game away for the home team. Good game to take the “under”, currently at 48.5. I’ll be surprised if it gets within a touchdown of that number.

Patriots 20, Lions 15

- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+10.5): Lead pipe lock of the week. No reason to dwell much on what should continue to be Aaron Rodgers’ strong campaign to seize the MVP once again.

Packers 35, Vikings 12

- Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5): Tough task for the Titans to travel on a short week and face an Eagles team licking its wounds from being blown off the (almost) frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Yet if both teams play this week the way they did last week, the visitors can absolutely pull it off.

One of the lessons from this unpredictable season is that what happened last week doesn’t necessarily impact what happens this week. In fact, teams often completely reverse their fates from one week to another for no particular reason. The Eagles are too talented and well-coached to get rolled at home, especially by the Titans. Gunslinging rookie QB Zach Mettenberger has provided a nice spark, finally unleashing the deep ball against Pittsburgh after slogging through a pathetic yards per attempt in his first two starts. The Eagles are vulnerable to breakdowns on the back end, so Tennessee could keep this game closer than expected. It’s extremely unlikely they win, however.

Eagles 30, Titans 20

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5): Back when Peyton Manning was running the Colts and Jack Del Rio was coaching the Jaguars, this was always a much closer contest than the records of the two teams would indicate. Even in their down years those Jaguar teams were always a handful for Manning and the Colts.

The Patriots exposed the blueprint for attacking the Indy defense: punch them in the mouth and run around them while they look for their teeth. Judiciously sprinkle in smart passes and the occasional shot down the field between the safeties. Unfortunately the Jaguars don’t have Tom Brady or Jonas Gray or Rob Gronkowski to do those things. The Colts are angry and motivated to redeem themselves after their prominent national whooping by New England. This is not apt to be pretty for the Florida visitors.

Colts 36, Jaguars 17

- St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-6): It’s hard to ignore what St. Louis did last week in upending the mighty Broncos and Peyton Manning. They got consistent pressure and the back end played aggressively smart and tackled well. Meanwhile the Chargers sputtered once again in barely edging out the winless Raiders. The Chargers have trouble in pass protection, while the Rams pass rush has finally heated up. San Diego cannot run the ball at all, averaging a league-worst (tied with Arizona) 3.1 yards per carry. It sure seems like the Rams ought to have a great chance to win, even on the road.

Flash to the Allstate Mayhem ad where he’s a cheap bungee cord holding a grill and various other loosely-tethered objects in the back of a pickup truck. Mayhew casually utters “Nah” and the road is strewn with debris. A car crashes into it, but Mayhem isn’t done. He flings a giant tub of cheese puffs into the air in celebration. St. Louis, you are the car behind Mayhem.

Chargers 27, Rams 10

- Washington at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5): Can’t help but to be impressed with how well the 49ers have turned the tide after such a fractious, uninspiring start. One underexposed reason: penalties. No team was whistled for more flags in the first eight weeks than San Francisco. But in the last three games they rank eighth in the league with just five accepted penalties per game. That’s shaving more than three per week off their early-season average. They’re not beating themselves anymore. Washington stands little chance in pulling off the road shocker, and the Niners’ uptick in discipline makes it even more unlikely.

This is a critical game for RG3, who was unexpectedly slammed by his own coach before Jay Gruden went back to his characteristic fence-straddling self. Griffin has not been good, but more importantly he doesn’t appear to be getting any better. Progress against Chris Borland, Aldon Smith & Co. will be hard to come by, though finding Desean Jackson would be a good place to start. $1000 on the home team.

49ers 34, Ethnic Slurs 19

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-5.5): It’s Lovie Smith’s return to Chicago, the city where he was a mediocre-at-best coach for far too long. The Bears replaced him with another apparently mediocre-at-best coach in Marc Trestman, unfortunately. It’s also the homecoming for Bucs QB Josh McCown, who was better than Jay Cutler in relief of the injured Bears QB a year ago. McCown won’t be fazed by the cold and wind, or the toothless Chicago back seven. Even though Lance Briggs played well last week, this Bears unit still has major holes all over the place. They’re going to have serious problems with dynamic rookie wideout Mike Evans, who looks like he fits right in with Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery physically.

The problem for Tampa is that their own defense also stinks. Trestman will be able to easily pick up on Smith’s predictable tendencies, and the Bears also have the virtue of Matt Forte and a running offense. The Bucs don’t have that amongst their meager list of assets. $500 on the Bears to cover.

Bears 30, Buccaneers 17

- Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): This game marks Josh Gordon’s return to the Browns lineup after his most recent drug-related suspension. The NFL’s leader in receiving yards last year, it remains to be seen how quickly he can get back to his old self. It was encouraging to hear he took his car sales job seriously during his mandated time away, and he’s had quite a bit of time to get over his chronic stoner physiological addiction.

He gets a favorable matchup in his first game back. In fact, he could be poised for a big day because this game could wind up being a “last score wins” kind of affair. The first-place (at 4-6) Falcons have major issues in pass coverage. They rank 29th in Pro Football Focus pass coverage rankings and they get little help from an anemic pass rush. Brian Hoyer can’t look nearly as bad as he did in last week’s putrid loss…right?

I really like the message Browns coach Mike Pettine sent by dismissing perennially disgruntled RB Ben Tate. I think it will resonate in the locker room, where Tate had few advocates. Remember, this is a guy who openly complained about being behind Arian Foster in Houston when Foster was leading the league in rushing. Browns players will respect the smart decision, and I think between that and the Gordon bump they pull off the road win. Atlanta is never an easy place to visit but these Falcons just aren’t that good.

Browns 27, Falcons 24

- New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5): The story here isn’t the game, it’s the snow. As of Thursday morning Ralph Wilson Stadium was filled with more than six feet of snow, and more was on the way. If the community can get this stadium ready for Sunday’s game, the Bills deserve to win.

Bills 14, Jets 9

- Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3): The rested Cowboys have a chance to pick up a critical NFC victory as they jockey for playoff positioning. The Giants have not quit on Tom Coughlin, but they’re not exactly crashing through cement for the venerable old coach either. Sometimes it can come down to something as simple as the date of the game, and I think that matters here: Tony Romo is 27-6 in November, while Eli Manning is 16-23. Romo finds ways to win in this month, while Manning is at his worst. I smell a big fantasy week for Dez Bryant. I also smell one for New York’s Odell Beckham, but he might be the only Giant to find the end zone in this one.

Cowboys 29, Giants 13 

Monday Night

- Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3): Somewhat surprisingly the Baltimore Ravens have quietly accrued the AFC’s second-best point differential at +80 on the season. They’ve accomplished much of that by pounding NFC South opponents. Baltimore is 3-0 against the NFL’s weakest division, beating Carolina 38-10, Tampa Bay 48-17 and Atlanta 29-7. That’s +81 in three games, meaning the rest of their season is pretty much a wash. I have a hard time seeing the Saints play so poorly once again under the spotlight at home in a game they really need to win, but Drew Brees is really going to miss Brandon Cooks. Baltimore’s defense will give Brees enough problems that Joe Flacco can outgun him.

Ravens 33, Saints 28

Betting recap:

49ers -8.5 for $1000

Bears -5.5 for $500