If the chill in the air didn’t impact many games last week, it surely will on this blustery Sunday. There will be lots of below freezing temperatures and wind chills, perhaps even some snow in a couple of stadiums.

Last Week: 7-6 as some predicted upsets bombed and some unexpected ones took their place. 94-51-1 on the season.

Gambling Update: Won with the Broncos, lost with the Steelers. Apparently this was a common occurrence last week. Still swimming above the sharks at $11.5K on the season, up $1,500.

Thursday Night

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5): The Thursday night tilts have been pretty one-sided this year, including last week’s Browns romp in Cincinnati. There’s a chance this one could be, too.

Buffalo is a real matchup problem for Miami. This is exacerbated by the Dolphins losing LT Branden Albert, easily their best offensive lineman. Detroit lived in their backfield even when Albert was in that game, and Buffalo is just as talented up front as the Lions; they lead the league in sacks. Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus & Co. can control the line of scrimmage and create opportunities for the back end.

The Dolphins will have to win it with their defense…and it’s a very good unit. The Miami pass rush gets to the QB handily as well. The score of the first meeting--Buffalo won 29-10--is misleading as the Bills scored on a C.J. Spiller kick return and five Dan Carpenter field goals. Their only offensive touchdown came a couple of plays after a long Spiller run. Spiller is out for the year now, and Fred Jackson is questionable. Without those weapons, I can’t see them cracking this tight Miami defense.

Still, the Bills just seem to have Miami’s number. They won on the road there last year, and they’re very good on the road this year.

Bills 19, Dolphins 16 

Sunday Games

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): The Patriots must have offended some minor deity in drawing the Broncos and Colts back-to-back before and after their bye. New England impressively handled Denver, but that was a home game. This one is in Indy in prime time, and that makes their task at hand much harder.

The Colts are rested, fresh off a bye week of their own that allowed them to lick some wounds. It also gave Andrew Luck time to process some game tape and figure out why the Patriots have so much success in disguising coverages against him. If he’s smart, and most people who come out of Stanford are pretty brainy, he’ll pick up on the subtleties and find more successes in this game. His superior weaponry to what Tom Brady has on the other side will allow the Colts to prevail if the game devolves into a defenseless shootout, though I don’t see the game playing out that way.

Colts 27, Patriots 21 

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5): First place in the NFC playoff seeding race is on the line. Seriously, these are the top two teams in the NFC right now, Detroit and Arizona. Somewhere a Fox Sports executive head explodes in knowing that the winner of this game is in great position to secure a playoff bye and be the favorite over sexier Dallas, Philly, Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans going forward.

The Cardinals will start Drew Stanton at QB in place of the injured Carson Palmer. He’s very good at throwing the deep ball over the middle and he can gain a few yards with his legs, but inferior to Palmer at every other aspect. Detroit’s defense does not break down over the top, thanks to the criminally underrated safety tandem of Glover Quin and James Ihedigbo.

As long as Matthew Stafford continues to not make mistakes under pressure, the Lions have a better chance of eking out points than Arizona does. These are the two best defenses in the NFL, and every point will be precious.

Lions 16, Cardinals 14 

Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-1): The Chiefs escaped Buffalo with a win despite being outplayed for the vast majority of the game by the Bills. That lightning is not likely to strike two weeks in a row, certainly not when the Seahawks desperately need a win to keep pace in the crowded NFC playoff race. Seattle isn’t going to run for 350 yards like last week, but Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson will both find enough success to win comfortably on the road. I’ll take the point for $500.

Seahawks 23, Chiefs 13

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-5.5): I’m not normally one to pick against Aaron Rodgers at home in a big game, but I’m doing just that in this one. I love Philly getting almost a touchdown. Why? Three reasons:

--I really like the way Mark Sanchez is operating Chip Kelly’s fast-paced, creative offense. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to pace, and they do not defend the middle of the field well. Though moving Clay Matthews (a brilliant wrinkle) inside worked last week, I’m not sure that’s a sustainable trend.

--People are going to look at Green Bay annihilating Chicago and expect more of the same, but that is a special circumstance. The Bears are bad and the Packers absolutely have their number. The Eagles are a much different animal.

--Philly won in Green Bay last year 27-13. They know they can do it and won’t be in awe of the Packers and the mystique of what is arguably the best atmosphere in the NFL. Of course Rodgers missed that game, an important point. Rodgers’ presence likely secures the outright win for Green Bay, but I’ll be surprised if they win by more than a field goal. I’ll put $500 on that.

Packers 30, Eagles 28 

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants (+5.5): San Francisco probably saved its season last week, while the Giants almost certainly spit out their playoff bit in getting crushed by Seattle. Two ships passing in the night, and the one going in the wrong direction doesn’t appear to have an anchor to drop and stop the slide. Bad matchup for the home team.

49ers 31, Giants 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington (-6.5): It’s always risky to trust a 3-6 team, but the Ethnic Slurs are this week’s Survivor fantasy pick. It’s getting harder to find good matchups, plus the Buccaneers don’t have much resistance on defense. I do like this game for Tampa wideout Mike Evans, who has been emerging as a much more consistent weapon as a rookie than I expected.

Ethnic Slurs 32, Buccaneers 27

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5): The Ryan Mallett era begins for Houston. Allow me to give my condensed scouting report from 2011 on the former Arkansas QB:

Great size at 6’7” and 235. Outstanding arm strength, can drive the ball deep with plus velocity. Fires the ball into tight windows down the field when he can step into his throws. Terrible athlete with cement on his feet. Needs a big clean pocket with his long stride. Does not throw well at all from a muddy pocket and cannot reset quickly or move laterally to avoid pressure. Doesn’t see linebackers dropping, ever.

Needless to say, I was not a big fan. I became even less of a fan when he was definitively outplayed by limp-armed Kellen Moore in the 2013 preseason, a game where every knock I listed above was validated.

I suspect he’ll offer more consistent field-stretching than Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he will probably take better care of the ball. The Browns aren’t great at pressuring the QB, so he could get some shots to Andre Johnson and Nuke Hopkins. But the field conditions conspire against him, as it will likely be snowy and loose footing. Cleveland doesn’t beat itself, and that matters too.

Browns 24, Texans 21

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-6.5): The Saints lost at home last week for the first time in a long time, imploding by somehow forgetting to cover Michael Crabtree on a desperation 49ers 4th down. I don’t know how that happens, but I’ll wager a good sum that it doesn’t happen in this game with A.J. Green.

Honestly I don’t know what to make of the Bengals. They were the best team in the AFC in September, yet have fallen off a steep precipice in most games since. I do think Andy Dalton will rebound from his legendarily terrible outing versus the Browns, but I don’t see him outdueling Drew Brees in New Orleans. Be careful in being overconfident here, but the Saints are the smart pick.

Saints 29, Bengals 24 

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5): Just what the doctor ordered for the ailing Chargers, losers of three in a row. After a bye week, they draw the winless Raiders in the comforts of San Diego. The Raiders almost had them in the first meeting, a 31-28 comeback win in Oakland that marks San Diego’s last victory.

I hope that close-but-no cigar smoked well, Raiders fans, because this time you’ll be the teenage loser plucking half-burned cigarette butts from the ashtray outside Walgreens. I’ll take the home team for $1000.

Chargers 37, Raiders 17

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (+9.5): The Rams are making the switch back to Shaun Hill at quarterback, apparently throwing in the towel on the Austin Davis experience. Throwing two awful interceptions against Arizona with the game still undecided was enough for coach Jeff Fisher to yank Davis, who showed flashes of competence and a nice deep ball.

It’s a curious decision, a short-term call for a team whose short-term future is a guaranteed last-place finish in the NFC’s best division. If they’re auditioning Hill to be the potential starter next year, that’s just stupid. He’s 34 and playing on an expiring contract. I understand playing to win, and Hill does present a better chance for that, but it’s not like either QB stands much of a chance in a duel with Peyton Manning…indoors…facing a Swiss cheesy secondary.

Broncos 40, Rams 20 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bears (-3.5): Can the Bears recover from being the first team in the modern NFL to give up more than 50 points in consecutive games? I doubt the Vikings put up the fifty burger, but they should continue the trend of opposing teams scoring their highest total of the year against the woefully inept Bears defense. Between a scheme that isn’t working and a defensive back seven that features one, and only one, player who should see any action in 2015 in Kyle Fuller, Chicago’s defense is not going to improve much this year.

Having said all that, I think Jay Cutler and the Chicago offense is due for a big positive hiccup of productivity. It flies in the face of football logic, as the Vikings lead the league in sack percentage and the Bears OL continues to struggle with injuries. I still believe there is too much talent on the Chicago offense for them to not have one more great outing. They get their first--and perhaps only--home win of the year.

Bears 34, Vikings 31

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5): It says a lot about how bad the Falcons are that the Panthers are still favored, even at home. Carolina has been one of the five worst teams in the league over the last six weeks. It says here Cam Newton has a bounce back game and leads the Panthers to a much-needed home divisional win.

Panthers 27, Falcons 20 

Monday Night

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (+5.5): The nation at large gets its first unimpeded glimpse at Titans rookie QB Zach Mettenberger actually playing instead of posting bizarre selfies on social media. What they’ll see is someone whose scouting report reads sort of similar to the one above for Mallett, another tall SEC quarterback forced to transfer for off-field issues.

Mettenberger has a great arm, but that’s really about it. He’s completely immobile and doesn’t anticipate pressure; Mett has been sacked 7 times in 73 throws, a horrific rate. He doesn’t make anticipatory throws, which means those reactionary high-caliber bullets that worked (somewhat) for him at LSU are less likely to result in success in the NFL. He’ll likely be without TE Delanie Walker, the Titans’ leading receiver who suffered a concussion last week.

I don’t trust the Steelers at all, not with their wild vacillations in play. But I will take Big Ben Roethlisberger against Tennessee’s defense. Also, Dick Lebeau’s defense does not lose to rookie QBs, period.

Steelers 34, Titans 14

Betting recap

San Diego -10.5 for $1000

Seattle +1 for $500

Philadelphia +5.5 for $500