Last week: 12-3, a very good forecast. The season tally improves to 60-32.

Betting update: Last week was an abject lesson in why it’s not a good strategy to get too excited over one particular game. I wagered 2500 Uzbek som on Denver +26.5 over Jacksonville. I might as well have set it on fire. I also lost 500 som on the Bengals +7.

With those losses, I’m now down to 6,450 som. In six weeks, I’ve lost 3,550 of my initial 10,000 investment. Before long, some distant descendants of Tamerlane are going to come looking for me.

Much of the country gets the first real taste of cold over the next few days. The forecast for the north and east includes rain and temps in the 50s over the weekend, which means field conditions figure to be less than optimal.

Thursday Game

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5): Seattle is not the same on the road as they are at home, let’s get that out of the way right off the bat.

Just because they’re not the same doesn’t mean they aren’t good, however. Their defense can still rush the passer from all sorts of angles with all sorts of players, and they remain one of the most physical teams in the league. Their road issues tend to stymie the offense. That unit managed just 12 points in Carolina and one TD in Houston (the other was a Matt Schaub pick-six special). Arizona’s defense is pretty stout. They rank fourth in opposing yards per carry and rank seventh in the last month in yards per pass attempt allowed. 

Look for this to be a low-scoring game. As in, first team to 13 wins. The Cardinals do have a shiny new toy in rookie scatback Andre Ellington, but I just don’t trust Carson Palmer more than I trust Russell Wilson to pull out a close game.

Seahawks 16, Cardinals 13 for 250 som 

Sunday Best

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5): Are you as sick of Colts owner Jim Irsay as I am? Or, more importantly, as sick of Irsay as his own players and coaches must be? 

Irsay couldn’t stay out of his own way, criticizing Peyton Manning in a directly indirect manner for not getting him more rings to wear on his fat-cat fingers. Manning took the high road, while Broncos coach John Fox rightly defended his legendary quarterback. Colts' fans grimaced at the prospect of their owner fanning the flames and firing up the Broncos.

Manning is the key. Even though he didn’t take Irsay’s bait, you have to know his competitiveness has been piqued. He would love nothing more than to return to Indianapolis as a conquering hero. You’d better believe he wants to show up his worthy Colts successor, Andrew Luck. With all the weapons at his arsenal, a focused, motivated Manning is bad news for the Colts' defense. 

Then there is Luck, coming off a miserable game at the San Diego Chargers on Monday night. Instead of fourth quarter magic, he threw a game-sealing INT on his last attempt. He got precious little help from his receivers, who dropped four passes and struggled to get open against San Diego’s secondary. I suspect Luck and the Colts offense will rebound, but they’re not going to outscore the Broncos, who got a needed wakeup call in struggling against Jacksonville last week. Bad confluence of events for the home team here. 

Broncos 37, Colts 28 

Sunday Rest

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): The winner of this NFC East contest will be 4-3 and in firm control of divisional destiny. Take note of that, because it could very well be the last time this season any team from this terrible foursome has a winning record. 

I don’t think the loss of DeMarcus Ware form the Cowboys defense can be overstated. With Anthony Spencer already on IR, losing Ware for a few weeks is very bad. Even worse, the top two reserves are also dinged up. Playing the Eagles offense requires as many healthy bodies as possible to rotate in and keep freshness on the field. Without Ware, they lost their biggest impact player and best all-around player.

I think this shapes up well for Philly at home. Tony Romo has had some of his worst meltdowns against the Eagles, so I don’t expect his confidence to be real high either. The Philly defense is quietly improving, though they had no other direction to go but up. Barring a huge day from Dez Bryant--which is a distinct possibility--I think the Eagles cruise here. 

Eagles 35, Cowboys 27 for 250 som 

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1): I like to look for little hidden statistical nuggets to help try and decide what appear to be close games. Here’s one which really swayed me in this fierce rivalry:

 

I think the Ravens are the better team, but this is Pittsburgh’s de facto Super Bowl. Nothing brings out their intensity like hosting the Ravens, and this Baltimore team is not close to being the one that won the Super Bowl in February. Even though the Steelers are struggling, I like their defense here. Their offensive line is in for a long day, but in a game which figures to swing on one or two big plays, I trust Big Ben to make that happen more than I do Joe Flacco. Another metric where the Ravens rank 31st is in yards per completion allowed, an indicator of surrendering big plays on defense.

Steelers 17, Ravens 13

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+4): The hits keep coming for the New England defense. Already down star NT Vince Wilfork, now they must play the next 6-8 weeks without their best linebacker, Jerod Mayo. Top corner Aqib Talib is also iffy after leaving the Saints game early.

New England is vulnerable for sure. Can the Jets take advantage? That depends on which Geno Smith shows up. As is typical with rookie quarterbacks, his performance fluctuates from week to week and even series to series. That was true in the opener, when these two teams met and the Patriots prevailed. Smith threw three INTs in that game, squandering a great performance by the New York defense.

The Patriots have an incredible success rate against rookie quarterbacks. With two wins this year (the first Jets game and the Buffalo game with EJ Manuel in Week 2) Bill Belichick is now 15-4 against rookie signal callers with the Patriots. These teams are a lot closer on paper than you might think, but I’m not going to pick a rookie QB to beat the Patriots, certainly not with the Jets’ depleted receiving corps.

Patriots 18, Jets 15

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1): Judging by the line, Vegas is growing confident in the Ethnic Slurs. The converse is that they might be underestimating the Bears.

The Chicago defensive injuries probably play into that lack of confidence. Their defensive tackle position is ravaged beyond recognition, and now they’re leaning upon rookie Jon Bostic at middle linebacker. With Robert Griffin III running with more confidence and Alfred Morris attacking between the tackles, I think the Skins will have a lot of success grounding and pounding the depleted Chicago defense.

I also lean towards the desperation in Washington. They need the win here if they want to harbor any fantasy of replicating last year’s unlikely surge from a lousy start. But that rise from 3-6 to NFC East champs in 2012 gives them the needed experience to handle such a task. The Bears are going to score against Washington’s leaky defense, but somehow I think the Ethnic Slurs find a way. Just as Congress passed a bill in the eleventh hour, the Skins finally show competence and salvage a little dignity.

Washington 33, Chicago 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5): Serious gut check game for the walking wounded Falcons. If they have any hope of salvaging their season, this is it. To quote Rage Against the Machine:

It has to start somewhere

It has to start sometime

What better place than here?

What better time than now?

All hell can’t stop us now

Atlanta brings it like a funky Tom Morello guitar riff, with the charged screams of Zack de la Rocha exhorting them to victory. The Bucs are Creed to Atlanta’s Rage, able to start strong but collapsing in a hilariously lousy heap in the end.

Falcons 20, Bucs 10

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-3): This is the toughest game on the slate to forecast. The Lions and Bengals are strangely similar teams. Both are heavily reliant upon one star wideout on offense. Both have excellent defensive lines on defense. Both have hit-and-miss secondaries. Both feature effective running back duos with an open field dynamo with great hands and a tackle-breaking inside runner. The offensive lines are both solid, and both teams use a lot of two tight end sets. They’re both 4-2 and in first place in their divisions, coming off road wins.

To go beyond the field, both are organizations with lengthy histories of letting down their respective fans. Both have coaches who have struggled to control discipline on and off the field. Neither has won a playoff game since MC Hammer ruled the airwaves.

When games are so evenly matched, my default tendency is to choose the team with the better quarterback. That would be Matthew Stafford and the Lions.  A hidden factor is the exceptional punt and kick coverage teams of Detroit, which simply do not allow big plays. With rookie punter/kickoff specialist Sam Martin, they hardly allow any yards at all.

Lions 27, Bengals 24

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-6.5): This is one of the games which set off my predictive line alarm. As frequent readers know, I like to guess what the lines of the game will be before they come out. My forecast for this line was Carolina by two.

This presents me with a conundrum. The Panthers team that blew away Minnesota last week and nearly beat Seattle is capable of blowing out the Rams. But St. Louis impressively whacked Houston last week and has played better the past couple of games, albeit against AFC South doormats. I believe that improvement can stick; I like the Rams defense and how their front can disrupt, and their secondary is opportunistic.

On the flip side, I don’t trust Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense. When they’re hot, there aren’t many better offenses in the league. But it comes and goes so readily and without rhyme or reason. I think the confidence they gained last week allows them to prevail, but I’m not touching the line.

Panthers 23, Rams 21

San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+4): Pat Kirwan of Sirius NFL Radio pointed out a great string of facts pertinent to this game. The Titans played Seattle last week, and that bodes very poorly for Tennessee. As Kirwan related, teams who played Seattle the prior week have yet to win a game this year. Their average point total in those post-Seahawks games is 7.5 points.

Not all of those are bad teams, either. Indianapolis and San Francisco are among them. Both San Francisco and Houston failed to score touchdowns in the subsequent game. The physicality and intensity of the Seahawks appears to really take something out of teams.

Now factor in that the Titans are coming off a loss where backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions. They managed just 223 total yards on 55 plays, both very low numbers. One of their touchdowns was a crazy, one-in-a-million muffed field goal returned for a touchdown. The Niners defense could very well pitch a shutout in Tennessee.

Niners 20, Titans 6

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5): This has all the makings of a classic letdown game. The Chargers have to travel across the country on a short week. They thumped the Colts Monday night in San Diego, an emotional win where Philip Rivers flaunted the “disrespect” card.

Now they are overwhelming favorites against the winless, but no longer hopeless, Jaguars. Jacksonville looked a lot more potent on offense with Justin Blackmon back in the mix. Their defense--with some help from bad snaps by third string center Manny Ramirez--looked competent and aggressive against the high-flying Broncos. The Jags got a taste of what it’s like to play at a higher level, and I think they liked it. Between their relative improvement and what I think will be an overconfident Chargers team, I think this is a prime opportunity for the Jaguars to notch their elusive first win. Nobody does overconfidence worse than Philip Rivers.

Jaguars 24, Chargers 20

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-8.5): As part of researching the Bengals this week for their matchup with my Lions, I got to intently break down the Bills from their performance against Cincinnati.

One of the things that really stuck out was the unwillingness to challenge the Bengals deep down the field. Replacement QB Thad Lewis showed he could do it early on, launching a great deep ball down the left sideline to TJ Graham, who had three steps on Adam Jones.  But after that early foray, Lewis seemingly never looked down the field again. Even when they had route options that went deep, Lewis was too impatient to let them develop.

His patience will be an issue against a Dolphins front which can bring some heat. They’re rested as well, coming off a bye week to regroup after dropping two in a row. If they don’t have to defend the deep part of the field, it makes the front that much more effective. This is a real bad time for Buffalo to make this trip. The Dolphins might show a little rust early, but in the end they prevail.

Dolphins 30, Bills 16 for 400 som

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5): This is the worst possible matchup for the reeling Texans. The Houston offensive line has been struggling badly, with star LT Duane Brown clearly inhibited by injury and RT Derek Newton simply stinking up the joint. With Matt Schaub now out with an ankle injury, backup QB TJ Yates has to stand behind that shaky line against the best pass rushing defense in the league. The Chiefs racked up 10 sacks against a very agile Terrelle Pryor last week. They might get that many here too, especially playing at home.

Lost in all of Houston’s QB woes is their wretched special teams play. Their safety play has been terrible too, and they just lost their best safety in Danieal Manning. It’s hard to see the Texans pulling off the upset with so many problems. Gary Kubiak’s pants might spontaneously combust if his Texans continue to play so poorly. Look for the Chiefs to jump out early and then the Texans to put up a lot of yards catching up.

Chiefs 27, Texans 17 for 500 som

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-11): The Packers are going through one of the worst rash of injuries I can recall. Clay Matthews, out. Nick Perry, out. Randall Cobb, out. Casey Hayward, out. James Starks, out. Brad Jones, out. Robert Francois, out. James Jones, questionable. Mike Neal, questionable.

Those are just the injuries suffered during the season. They lost starting left tackle Bryan Bulaga and running back DuJuan Harris in the preseason, and top safety Morgan Burnett is still not fully recovered from the hamstring issue he had in preseason too.

Put all those guys back and healthy and the Packers blow away the Browns. But Cleveland’s defense is decent, and the Josh Gordon/Jordan Cameron duo challenges far better secondaries than this one.

Cleveland is coming off a game where they blew a strong first half, getting annihilated 24-0 by Detroit in the second stanza. I’ve watched that game three times now, and I can’t help but let that portrait of ineptitude cloud my vision. Still, the Cleveland team from the first half of that game can absolutely hang with this depleted Packers roster. Hanging with is different from beating, however…

Packers 28, Browns 17 

Byes: Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints

Monday Night

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5): How do you know when a team is in real trouble? One great sign is when they are underdogs to a winless team with a point differential of -106 in just six games.

Such is the case for Minnesota. They could be starting their third different quarterback in a month if Josh Freeman gets the nod, which appears to be the case. He might help the offense, but the Vikings defense is just as culpable as the middling QB play. They have surrendered at least 30 points in all but one game, and in that one they gave up 27 to an anemic Pittsburgh offense.

The Giants are a dysfunctional mess, but they do still have talent. At some point Eli Manning will not throw multiple interceptions, their defense will get a sack or two, and the other team will make the mistakes that piss the game away. The Vikings seem like the perfect foil for their own ineptitude.

Giants 30, Vikings 20

Betting recap:

Kansas City -6.5 for 500

Miami -8.5 for 400

Philadelphia -2.5 for 250

Arizona +6.5 for 250 

College Games

Louisville 24, UCF 20

Florida State 32, Clemson 30

Stanford 28, UCLA 24

Florida 26, Missouri 10

Texas A&M 33, Auburn 30