2012 Record:

Point Differential: +71       
Turnover Margin:   +4      
Sack Differential: +5

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 20th  
Passer Rating: 16th              
3rd Down: 28th        
Scoring: 12th 

QB: This is a huge season for Andy Dalton. Now entering his third year, the TCU product has been good enough to lead the team to consecutive playoff berths but downright brutal in bad playoff losses. If the Bengals are to go further, Dalton much play better in big games and on 3rd down, where the 28th ranking is simply unacceptable. In order to play better, Dalton must prove he can handle pressure more efficiently. Far too often he holds the ball an extra count and takes the big sack, or simply lobs the ball in the general direction of AJ Green and hopes for the best. It’s a strange dichotomy because Dalton is very sharp in the short and intermediate ranges when he has time.

Much has been made of Dalton’s arm strength on longer throws. I find this overblown but not invalid; his downfield passes don’t have the zip of a Joe Flacco or Peyton Manning but he’s got just as much behind his throws as Sam Bradford or Matt Ryan. It’s the ball placement down the field that is more of the issue. He has better downfield receiving options this year (more on them below) and that can only help…but only so much. Dalton will never be a strong-armed gunslinger, but he has enough moxie and accuracy to continue to progress. Cutting back on the 20 turnovers (16 INT, four fumbles lost) and sacks (48), many of which were squarely on him, is an imperative. So is making crisper decisions in pressure situations like 3rd down and in the red zone, where the Bengals were a middling 17th in touchdown percentage despite having AJ Green.

There has been a shakeup below Dalton on the depth chart. Bruce Gradkowski is gone, replaced by journeyman Josh Johnson and deposed Cardinals starter John Skelton. Johnson has a history with Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden, as both were in Tampa Bay for Johnson’s rookie year in 2008. He’s bounced around, including an impressive stint in the UFL, and is probably a better fit for the offense than the erratic Gradkowski. Skelton brings the biggest arm to camp, and there is optimism that removing him from the wretched line in Arizona will allow the youngster to blossom. At minimum, he makes it far more likely that the team keeps three quarterbacks after a few seasons of carrying just two.

RB: BenJarvis Green Ellis (hereafter BJGE) had a very interesting first season in Cincinnati. Known for being a short yardage specialist with little breakaway speed, BJGE was the exact opposite for the Bengals. He was lousy on 3rd & short and struggled at times to pick up tough yards, yet conversely he broke out for several runs of 20+ yards, something he almost never did in his two seasons in New England. As a Patriot, BJGE was a touchdown machine, with 24 in his final two years there, but he managed just six in Cincinnati despite significantly more carries. He had never fumbled in 5 seasons before coughing it up three times last year, losing two. Yet he flashed much better receiving skills than he had ever shown before. The trick for Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden is to figure out if this was an anomaly or a transformation. The truth lies somewhere in between; expect better short yardage production from BJGE, but also a decline in explosive plays. I think the passing game skills will stick, and I do expect an uptick in touchdowns from six.

Seeking a speedier, shiftier spark to complement BJGE, the Bengals drafted Giovani Bernard in the second round. Bernard is a diminutive dynamo with excellent short area quickness and burst. He likes to try and break runs outside and use his agility more than his power. An excellent receiver, expect Bernard to have a much more prominent role in the offense than recent reserve backs Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott; Bernard should get well over 150 touches and is not a bad bet for Offensive Rookie of the Year if he can assert himself early. 

Bernard Scott and Cedric Peerman, the reserve backs a year ago, appear to be competing for the 3rd RB job. The speedy Scott largely bombed in the role in 2011 before blowing out his knee last September. Peerman had some impressive runs and posted a gaudy 7.2 yards per carry, albeit on just 36 attempts. It’s Peerman’s gig to lose as he offers more on special teams. I’m an unabashed Peerman fan from his days at Virginia, and it was nice to see him taste some NFL success after languishing his first few years. They both could be pushed by a pair of 6th round picks, Boom Herron from the 2012 draft and Rex Burkhead from this past April. Burkhead intrigues as a hardnosed, maximum effort kind of player that fans will unhealthily love a la John Kuhn in Green Bay. Assuming the team keeps four backs, look for the two that are waived to show up on other active rosters this fall.

Fullback Chris Pressley is recovering from a quad injury but should be ready to go in the regular season. He is a bruising lead blocker noted for some astonishing squat rack numbers. Pressley has one carry and five receptions in three seasons in Cincinnati. If he continues to have issues in pass protection, Pressley could very well lose his job to John Conner. “The Terminator” saw a little playing time at the end of the season in his rookie year from Kentucky and has a more innate feel for targets in the run game. As with the running backs, expect to see the loser here wind up on another roster. I doubt Conner would go unclaimed should the team try to spirit him to the practice squad. 

WR/TE: I was mightily tempted to make this section very brief. As in, “AJ Green is just awesome, Andrew Hawkins is shifty in the slot, and the young guns outside have potential that needs to be realized”. That’s the ‘just the facts ma’am” version.

The Dickensian breakdown focuses on Green. In his first two seasons the lanky 2011 1st round pick has emerged as one of the best weapons in the entire league. Much like Calvin Johnson in Detroit, often times the Cincinnati offense resembled a playground game of Green going deep and Dalton chucking the ball in his general direction and hoping for the best. Green is physical and acrobatic enough to make that strategy more effective than it should be. He’s an exceptional talent outside the hashes and will almost certainly finish in the top 10 in receptions, yards, and touchdowns for the second year in a row. With good health and a little luck, he could finish in the top-3 in all those metrics.

Hawkins doesn’t get enough respect or notoriety for his slot work. He is remarkably consistent, catching at least two passes in every game but one. Over half his 74 receptions netted between nine and 11 yards. At 5’7” Hawkins is a small target and contact is an issue. That’s not calling Hawkins soft because he is not afraid to stick his nose in the fray, but simply that he’s not big or strong enough to handle more than token contact. He has been invisible in their two playoff losses. 

Flanking Green on the opposite side are two second year talents, Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu. Both players were draftnik favorites in the 2012 draft, and the Bengals were widely praised for getting great value for Sanu in the 3rd round and Jones in the 6th. Sanu kept working his way into more reps and caught four touchdowns in his final three games before a stress fracture to his foot ended his rookie campaign. As he did at Rutgers, Sanu did most of his damage on crossing routes and drags across the middle, using his size and build-up speed to get open and reliably catch anything close to him. If the foot is okay, and reports are he’s at full gallop again, expect Sanu to build on the strong finish to his first year. Jones is a little bigger and does his best work outside, particularly at finding the hole outside the linebacker and in front of the safety. He’s an oddity in that Jones is an outside receiver that doesn’t go deep, much more of a possession receiver. Teams with a lesser #1 talent than Green would struggle in relying so much on Sanu, Jones, and Hawkins as Cincinnati does, but because Green can do so much they make an effective supporting cast.

Brandon Tate brings a lot more value as a return man than as a receiver. He has never lived up his third round draft status, but the Bengals still use Tate as a vertical threat a handful of times a game. If he can chip in 13 catches for 211 yards like he did last year, Tate makes for an effective 5th wideout. Sixth round pick Cobi Hamilton, who is similar stylistically to Sanu, and Bears castoff Dane Sanzebacher will push him for reps. There is an open roster spot for one of them as Armon Binns has left the building. Of the cluster of undrafted free agents, human pipe cleaner Tyrone Goard from Eastern Kentucky is the most likely to stick on the practice squad. He caught the Bengals attention with his speed and downfield hands during Shrine Week.

Drafting Tyler Eifert in the first round was a bold stroke for Cincinnati. He gives them a dimension that Jermaine Gresham, the starting TE and a former first rounder himself, has not: downfield speed. Eifert often lined up as the X receiver at Notre Dame, an indication of his field stretching ability and receiving skills. He creates matchup issues for linebackers in zone and safeties in man, issues that will only help Green see less attention. His blocking improved as his Irish career progressed but he’s still much better served in a role akin to Jason Witten in Dallas.

Gresham is not burnt toast, though his role as a receiver figures to diminish. He is coming off a disappointing season even though he caught 66 passes, including five TDs. There were too many drops, too many incidents where he couldn’t get to the desired spot in a timely fashion, too many blown blocking assignments. Gresham almost never runs routes beyond 15 yards and isn’t real elusive after the catch. That’s a problem as the primary tight end, but if he’s sharing the role with Eifert he serves a greater purpose as a safety valve and big target over the middle. Expect to see more multiple TE sets, with Eifert lining up all over the formation. It’s a very solid 1-2 punch that a creative mind like Gruden can use to exploit matchup problems. Big Orson Charles will fill a role as the H-back and could even take over the fullback job with a strong camp. He spent the offseason learning to play in the backfield, and salvaging a roster spot there means flexibility at other positions and on special teams.

OL: There are more questions here than there have been in recent years. Both starting tackles return but with less certainty in Andrew Whitworth on the left and Andre Smith on the right. Whitworth remains an above-average pass protector but has not been as physically dominant or agile the last couple of seasons. He’s a mountain of a man, country strong and full of genuine enmity for his opponent. But a lingering knee injury has diminished his agility and range, more noticeably in the run blocking department. He had offseason surgery, always a dicey proposition for a 32-year old who weighs somewhere north of 330 pounds.

Andre Smith is several meals above 330 himself, and he’s had foot and knee issues of his own. His fluctuating weight and disappointing 2012 came on the heels of a fantastic 2011, where he very much looked like a perennial All Pro force. An offseason arrest--not his first brush with the law--further dimmed his star. Smith signed a 3-year deal that came in below his expected market value, and the way it’s structured it would be easy for the thrifty Bengals to escape after this season. It’s also a deal that could be renegotiated up if he plays well, and that’s the great hope. If properly motivated, Smith could return to being a dominant run blocker and above average pass protector for the right tackle position. If he can’t rise to the occasion, the Bengals trust veteran Anthony Collins as their top reserve tackle more than most teams value their swing tackle. They also have rookie Tanner Hawkinson, a power-based player with developmental upside. 7th round rookie Reid Fragel is a highly intriguing player as well, a converted tight end with an excellent frame and very quick feet. He will almost certainly spend 2013 on the practice squad, but don’t be surprised if the former Buckeye winds up playing a bigger role down the line.

Inside has seen many recent changes, mostly for the better. Cincinnati drafted RG Kevin Zeitler in the first round in 2012 and the Wisconsin product did not disappoint. He proved a major upgrade over the two headed monster of Mike McGlynn and Bobbie Williams, particularly as a run blocker. It’s worth noting that all 4 sacks he allowed, and 8 of the 11 QB hurries surrendered, came against 3-4 defenses. That bears watching in a division where Pittsburgh and Cleveland are fulltime 3-4 teams and the Ravens use odd man fronts quite a bit too. After missing all of last season with an injury, Travelle Wharton returns at left guard. He should be an upgrade over Clint Boling, who tried hard but lacks Wharton’s movement ability and quick feet. Boling will go back to where he belongs on the depth chart, a very reliable interior reserve who can even play right tackle in a pinch. 

Center was a revolving door last year and remains the biggest issue. Jeff Faine flopped as an emergency free agent signee, playing his way out of the lineup. Undrafted rookie Trevor Robinson was a little better, but also demonstrated why he went undrafted out of Notre Dame. Incumbent starter Kyle Cook, whose preseason injury forced the Faine signing, returned at the end of the season and was worse than Faine had been. The running game ground to a halt and for all of his smarts, Cook just wasn’t physically capable of handling the rigors of the position. Now Robinson has the inside track on the starting job. The hope is that a full offseason running with the big boys will better prepare Robinson, a converted guard, but he must play with better base strength and tenacity. Cook was once a nice success story for OL Coach Paul Alexander, but his play has fallen off the last two seasons. 7th round pick TJ Johnson, a mauler from South Carolina, and Colts/Panthers castoff Mike Pollak are also in the mix to win the other interior reserve gig. Look for Cook to get a quick shot at redemption and for Johnson to spend his rookie season on the practice squad. 

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 10th  
Passer Rating: 10th            
3rd Down: 10th         
Scoring: 8th 

DL: This unit is deep and very talented. The leader of the pack is Geno Atkins, an absolute angry bull of a tackle. Were it not for JJ Watt’s unprecedented season in Houston, Atkins could very well have won Defensive Player of the Year in 2012. His 12.5 sacks, 49 (forty nine!!) QB pressures, and 17 tackles for loss makes for one of the most dominating season by any DT in NFL history. His quickness and power make him a constant terror for offensive linemen. He might not hit 16 sacks again, but figure on at least 10.5 sacks and for Atkins to once again finish at or near the top of all DTs in sacks, TFLs, and disruptive plays. His star is only rising.

Part of the reason why Atkins is so effective is that he isn’t overworked. The Bengals have strong depth and it allows them to rotate fresh bodies in and out. Atkins played far fewer snaps than guys like Vince Wilfork, Gerald McCoy, or Ndamukong Suh and still put up those awesome numbers. Domata Peko remains an effective part of the rotation even though his play has declined. Peko brings toughness and relentlessness that make him a more difficult matchup than his meager stats suggest. He often tries to do too much and it can leave him vulnerable to being out of position, however. It will be interesting to see how much he plays in 2013 because a pair of youngsters is poised to see an increase in reps, and it’s not coming at Atkins’ expense. Devon Still and Brandon Thompson both saw limited action as rookies. Still, a second round pick from Penn State, fits the Atkins profile of an interior pass rusher. He’s got to learn to use his hands better, but his athleticism and savvy at finding the ball should allow for him to develop into an effective player. Thompson is more of an anchor, a big and physical occupying force with just enough lateral quickness to make him dangerous. If he can prove he can shed blocks and locate the ball well, Thompson could take a lot of time away from Peko.

The ends also have a very solid and deep rotation. Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson are the tallest starting duo in the league. They are also among the most effective. Johnson broke out with 11.5 sacks, demonstrating an impressive closing burst and finally coordinating his great length into getting off blockers. At 6’7” he is also effective at disrupting passing lanes when he gets held up at the line. Johnson has steadily improved his run defense as well, something that was a problem when he was a fulltime linebacker. Dunlap is more of a pure pass rusher and a heavyweight of a rush end at 275+ pounds. He’s got an outstanding array of arm and shoulder moves that reflect his power and leverage strength. Dunlap forced 4 fumbles and also returned an INT for a TD last season, making the impact plays off the edge. Like Johnson, he can play the run effectively on his way to the quarterback. His sack numbers are down; after notching 10 in 2010, he has just 10 in the last two seasons. Because he rotates in and out and has more run defense responsibility than most ends, Dunlap is unlikely to improve much beyond about 7.5 sacks, yet he remains a very effective player.

Robert Geathers brings stoutness against the run as a reserve. He can even slide inside as needed, though he is not a natural pass rusher. Geathers is entering his 10th season with the team and his experience and presence are invaluable to the coaching staff. He actually played more than Dunlap last year. Rookie Margus Hunt certainly brings intrigue. A 6’8” Estonian shot putter, Hunt offers great length and has flashed real disruptive ability…at times. Other times he really struggles with leverage and has little plan other than trying to beat blockers with natural athleticism and effort. He’ll be a 26-year old rookie, and his biggest impact could come on special teams as a kick blocking freak. Wallace Gilberry continues to offer straight speed rushing as a situational sub, and he’s effective at it. His 6.5 sacks and 11 QB hurries in limited duty are very impressive, though he figure to lose reps to Hunt. Veteran Jamaal Anderson looks to be the odd man out, but the kind of player who can come back in an injury pinch if needed. Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer has a very keen understanding of how to deploy his arsenal and tailors the game plan to what his specific players do well in specific situations. It makes the Bengals front even better than the sum of their impressive parts. 

LB: When I first set out to research the Bengals, one of the things that mystified me was this conundrum: their defensive leader in snaps happened to have been the unquestionably least effective player on the entire team. That would be Rey Maualuga, the man in the middle of the defense. The book on Maualuga is well chronicled. He can go forward in a straight line as if he’s shot from a howitzer, but asking him to get outside or (God forbid!) go backwards is like expecting a donkey to win a horse race. There was much consternation about his return, as Maualuga was a free agent, but the Bengals brought him back. Apparently the coaches are enamored with his between the tackles hitting and don’t care much about his wretched coverage skills or lack of production of impact plays; in four seasons he has 8 forced turnovers and three sacks. 

What makes it stranger is that the Bengals appear to have a better option already on the roster in Vontaze Burfict. The enigmatic talent went undrafted out of Arizona State despite major hype for his bone-rattling hits and freakish power. An almost proud lack of discipline both on and off the field nearly ended his football career, but the proverbial light switched on in Cincinnati. Burfict racked up a team-high 127 tackles in his rookie year despite being 7th on the LB depth chart entering training camp and playing outside for the first time in his career. He kept his mouth shut both on the field and at the dinner table and became a great feel-good redemption story for the Bengals, who have a preternatural attraction to just those sorts of troubled souls. The team seems a lot more convinced that the 2012 Burfict will show up again, but given his history that is not a safe assumption.

Cincy made a change at the other outside spot. Manny Lawson was sent packing after doing little to disprove his draft bust legacy from San Francisco. Replacing him will be former Steeler James Harrison, who has never played in a 4-3 before. He’s 35, short, and coming off a disappointing, injury-hampered season that left him with few options on the free agent market. Harrison is an infamous fine magnet for his hits of questionable legality and his unapologetic venom towards Roger Goodell. This is the kind of risk that the Patriots take and it’s regarded as a brilliant move, but when the Bengals try it they get chastised. I happen to think it’s a stroke of genius, if for no other reason than how much the other three teams in the AFC Central are going to hate to play against him. At the very least his presence focuses the attention squarely on him, and his broad shoulders can handle it. It allows the rest of the team to go about their business. He’s probably not going to play a lot other than as a pass rush specialist, and matching last season’s 6 sacks could be a challenge. But James Harrison’s value to the Bengals goes beyond whatever production he might have left.

Look for rookie 4th round pick Sean Porter to play outside when Harrison isn’t on the field. The former Aggie is undersized and plays like it, but his instincts and closing speed are both very good. If he can flash coverage skills he could be on the field a lot. Former Bills bust Aaron Maybin latched on for one last try. Save a payback game for the Jets against those Bills in 2011, Maybin has never demonstrated one iota of viable NFL ability. He will have to earn his roster spot ahead of Vincent Rey, a special teams fixture who saw some defensive snaps early in the year. With Dan Skuta gone, another reserve LB/special teams job is ripe for the taking. Emmanuel Lamur, Cincy Bearcat JK Schaffer, and Jordan Campbell are all in the mix, but the early returns on speedy Jayson DiManche make him seem like the safe pick to earn the gig.

Secondary: Leon Hall and Dre Kirkpatrick are the starting corners, with Adam “Pacman” Jones as the nickel. That’s a pretty solid threesome if all are healthy and mentally strong. Hall missed two games last season after missing half of 2011 with a torn Achilles, and he still hadn’t quite recovered his closing burst or long speed from that injury. He likes to play physically against both the run and pass, with varying degrees of success. He’s never quite reached the hype from his very strong 2009 campaign, where he picked off 6 passes and was an absolute stud against the run, but Hall remains a solid starter who knows his assignments inside out.

Kirkpatrick was the Bengals 1st round pick in 2012 but was stymied by a litany of injuries. He missed the early OTAs after January knee surgery as well, which throws his camp (and beyond) availability into question. Because his style depends on physicality and the ability to turn and run, a Kirkpatrick at less than 100% is not likely to be an effective player. They really need him to come close to the player they hoped he’d quickly become, because expecting an encore performance from Terrence Newman is asking a lot. Newman was better than expected in his first year in Cincinnati, showing spryness to his legs that appeared gone for good in his Dallas days. It has all the hallmarks of a late-career resurgence that fades quickly, however. Newman turns 35 before the season starts and was coming off back to back lousy campaigns. As the 4th corner he’s more than functional, but depending on Terrence Newman to play almost every snap once again is fraught with peril.

Jones was solid in coverage but is not the playmaking force majeure of his Pacman heyday. He hasn’t picked off a pass since Week Two of the 2011 season, and he allows a bigger cushion than most corners at the line. Teams have attacked him by throwing short. To his credit, Jones has improved as a tackler and is trying very hard to rehabilitate his tarnished image. His teammates appreciate him more than his production merits.

Beyond those four, onetime 3rd round pick Brandon Ghee is likely on his last chance to prove he belongs. He’s played just 15 snaps in three years. Plucky Shaun Prater can charitably be described as a poor man’s Leon Hall. With a good preseason he could earn a role. Tiny undrafted rookie Onterio McCalebb, a RB at Auburn, is on the roster strictly as a return man, where he will battle with Jones. 

Free safety Reggie Nelson comes off his best year, the first time he’s really looked like the first round pick he was for the Jaguars way back in 2007. The improvement came in coverage awareness, where he looked much more comfortable and played with obvious confidence. He was very good after the bye week, when he was starting next to veteran Chris Crocker. It will be interesting to see if Nelson can sustain that level of play with Crocker now on the street. Nelson is a player who has struggled with paralysis by analysis, but perhaps his experience level has finally taught him what to look for and how to react more promptly to what he sees.

The biggest question is at strong safety, where there is a three man battle royal between Taylor Mays, George Iloka, and Shawn Williams. Mays began last season as a nominal starter but has serious limitations in lateral range. His complete lack of instinctive ability forced him out of San Francisco quickly. In short, he plays a little too much like former Bengal Roy Williams, an oversized linebacker with great hitting prowess but tighter hips than a 70-year old nun. Iloka was the team’s 5th round pick in 2012 but never saw the field as a rookie. His most apt player comparison is none other than Taylor Mays, which indicates a strange obsession among the Bengals decision makers (read: Mike Brown) with safeties that are built like linebackers and have the passing game instincts and agility of right guards. If Iloka can show better competence in run defense he could see the field in his second year. Williams is the wild card. The 3rd round pick out of Georgia, he too is a punishing hitter with great strength and closing speed (notice the theme?). He has the best natural instincts of the bunch, though he is smaller and slower afoot than his competitors. I know the Bengals coaches loved the edginess he displayed during Senior Bowl week, where he was easily the most physical safety during the practice sessions, and he has some playmaking ability as well. There is little question that Shawn Williams will become the starter, the question is how quickly he assumes the role. Jeromey Miles nominally adds depth but his function for the Bengals is as a special teams demon, and he’s a good one.

Special Teams: Mike Nugent returns from a calf injury that ended his 2012 early. The Bengals missed his strong kickoffs more than his field goal prowess, where he struggled some with kicks beyond 40 yards. Native son Kevin Huber has become one of the best punters in the league. He doesn’t force many fair catches but is very good at pinning the ball deep in opposing territory. With Jeromey Miles and Vincent Rey returning on coverage units, they should be strong once again. Brandon Tate is a decent kick return man, consistently getting solid returns but seldom breaking past his own 40. Adam Jones took one punt to the house and remains a threat to do so every time he gets his hands on the ball. The Bengals forced more punts than all but 3 other teams, so he gets ample opportunity. Tate shared that role last year but was unimpressive. The Bengals actually have a camp battle for the long snapping spot between incumbent Clark Harris and practice squad refugee Clark Davis. Harris was a collegiate TE of some repute, which ostensibly gives him more value.

Forecast: This is probably not a popular opinion, but I contend that the Cincinnati Bengals just might have the best overall roster in the AFC. The biggest detraction is that they are not as strong as the other contenders at the most critical position: quarterback. This team will go as far as Andy Dalton can take them. The defense is strong, particularly up front. The coaching staff is among the best in the business and returns intact. Cincinnati has a legit All Pro caliber WR in AJ Green. The offensive tackles are better than many other teams trot out. They upgraded the talent around Green and Dalton. If this team is to advance beyond the opening playoff weekend, it will be because Andy Dalton steps up. The potential is there, but his ceiling is lower than the other QBs in the AFC who have Super Bowl rings: Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Flacco. As much as I like the team around him, I have a hard time seeing Andy Dalton carrying the team beyond one playoff win. Even getting there is no easy task thanks to a tough schedule, but I think there are still 10 or 11 wins to be had thanks to the stifling defense. I’ll settle on 10 wins, which will be enough to win the grinding AFC North.