It’s great to be back writing about actual football games once again. Last season’s forecast finished a sunny 156-100 straight up.

This year, I’ll track both the straight up picks as well as the record against the spread. The first week is always a tough forecast, though most gamblers will tell you it’s perhaps the easiest week to make money.

Thursday Night

- Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+2.5): One of the NFL’s best ideas in recent times is to kick off the 2016 season with a Super Bowl rematch in prime time. It’s like opening a sequel with a familiar recap from the original…

…except in this sequel the lead actor got replaced by an unknown understudy. Denver fans got Leonardo DiCaprio in the original, but now his part is being played by Justin Bieber. That’s the approximate range between Peyton Manning and new Denver starter Trevor Siemian.

Of course Manning was a shell of his former self last season and even in the big game, where Manning was 13-for-23 for 141 yards, one INT and no TDs. Bieber, err, Siemian can probably replicate that meager output. It’s Denver’s defense that won the title, and that will be how they win this game, too.

Carolina plays the villain role in the sequel, and they come back in fine form. They’ve gone from Alan Rickman’s sheer brilliance in Die Hard to William Sadler and John Amos cool combination of understated evil in Die Hard 2. They might even be Jeremy Irons’ crisp turn in Die Hard With a Vengeance. Carolina is hoping they don’t turn out a clunker like the regrettable Live Free or Die Hard. Or the spectacularly ridiculous A Good Day to Die Hard. Panthers QB Cam Newton would have turned down those scripts.

Broncos 22, Panthers 20

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5): The only Sunday game featuring two teams that each won a playoff game last year sees the Brady-less Patriots head to Arizona. It’s asking a lot of Jimmy Garoppolo to try and duel Carson Palmer toe to toe with Arizona’s complex and talented defense. Yet Jimmy G has every young QB’s best friend in a great receiving tight end, arguably the best receiving weapon in the league regardless of position in Rob Gronkowski.

I’d like the Patriots more if I trusted their offensive line. I do think the New England defense matches up well with Palmer and the aerial attack. The speed at linebacker can help contain dynamic David Johnson, perhaps even using Jamie Collins as a spy on the spry Cardinals RB. But on the road with an unproven QB against a hungry, win-now Arizona team? It’s a cloudy forecast but I think Arizona avoids having New England rain on their opener.

Cardinals 28, Patriots 24

Sunday Rest

- Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-4.5): The Brock Osweiler era begins in Houston, and the Texans QB should have a nice debut against a Chicago defense that improved quite a bit in the front but still has major issues at cornerback. Nuk Hopkins is the biggest advantage either team holds, and that includes if J.J. Watt (back surgery) can go against newest Bear Josh Sitton and a Chicago offensive line that still looks like trouble at tackle.

Texans 26, Bears 23

- Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (+1.5): I would like the Bengals here if they had stud tight end Tyler Eifert, but he’s out. Andy Dalton is a dramatically better QB when the oft-injured Eifert is on the field. Between his absence and what I think will be a revitalized Darrelle Revis at corner for the Jets, I like the Jets defense. The thing is, I also like the Bengals defensive line against New York’s line and running game. I’ll ride with Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker combination at home, albeit with low confidence.

Jets 17, Bengals 14

- Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): Philly’s biggest (only?) strength is the defensive front. Cleveland’s biggest (only?) strength is the offensive line, even as it’s shuffled a bit. If the Browns OL can cancel out what looks to be a nasty Philly pass rush, Cleveland has a chance. A pretty good chance, actually. Why?

Philly is starting a rookie quarterback with a rookie head coach in Week 1. That is almost never a recipe for success. Given how blah the Eagles receiving options are, the batter gets even saltier. This is Cleveland’s best shot all season at a road win, and I’m a Hue Jackson believer.

Browns 19, Eagles 15

- Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5): I think Jacksonville will be one of the league’s most improved teams in 2016. Alas, they have to get a lot better to stay on the field with the likes of Green Bay. The Packers nicely foil what JAX does well, namely throwing the ball outside the numbers. We’ll see how good the young Jacksonville defenders are in dealing with Jordy Nelson, Eddie Lacy and what should be a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay knows a lot of eyes are on them to perform well here, and they’ve typically responded well in those situations.

Packers 24, Jaguars 21

- Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans (+2.5): How quickly can Minnesota recover from losing Teddy Bridgewater? One of Teddy’s best attributes was protecting the football, something replacement Sam Bradford has continually struggled with at every stop on his journeyman career. Tennessee needs all the help they can get to win games. This could be a rare NFL contest with more running plays than passes, as these two teams project as the highest run percentage units and are built to run over pass. I like Tennessee’s run offense quite a bit, but it’s not better than Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon.

Vikings 23, Titans 21

- San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5): I don’t like divisional games as season openers. If half the division is playing itself, the other half should too. It puts the losing team in a bigger hole than just losing a game to some random team from the other conference. I hate that the NFL never sees problems like this but will show no quarter in throwing the book at a player for smoking weed or even wearing mismatched socks.

Chiefs 27, Chargers 13

- Oakland Raiders at New Orleans Saints (-1.5): Pick ‘em game where I give both teams a 50% chance to win. In those cases I look at three things: home team, better QB and better kicker. New Orleans wins the first two but emphatically loses the kicking contest. If it comes to that, the Raiders will win.

Saints 30, Raiders 24

- Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Real tough draw for Miami, travelling across the country for a date with the 12th man. Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and new Dolphin Arian Foster will have to have strong games to help Ryan Tannehill. Even then it probably won’t be enough. I do worry the Seahawks OL and extremely green depth could struggle out of the gate and that 9.5 number is really big.

Seahawks 26, Dolphins 17

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): I don’t have a good feel for who wins here, to be honest. But I’ll tell you who loses: the fans. The referee for this game is Jeff Triplette, the poster child for a developmental football league to help train not just players but also officials. No person not elected to their job or earning more than $12 an hour is worse at his vocation than Triplette. It baffles me the league hasn’t canned him for ineptitude.

Falcons 33, Buccaneers 30 in overtime

- Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): A fortuitous confluence of events greatly favors the home team here. Baltimore has abysmal depth, but in the first week all those veteran starters who make up one of the better starting lineups in the league are primed and healthy. Meanwhile, the Bills will play without top DT Marcell Dareus, who is suspended for the first four weeks for violating the substance abuse policy. Bad time for Buffalo to be shorthanded in Baltimore.

Ravens 30, Bills 20

- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5): All the focus is on Cowboys rookie QB Dak Prescott. He was quite impressive during the preseason, but Tony Romo’s shoes are awfully big to fill. Ezekiel Elliott, Dez Bryant and timeless Jason Witten give Prescott some tasty choices, and the top-notch offensive line will help make life easier.

Dallas’ bigger problem is its depleted defense. The Giants have trouble at offensive tackle but the Cowboys don’t have anyone who can take advantage. If Eli Manning can find someone other than Odell Beckham, I don’t trust Dallas to be able to stop New York’s offense. Even so, I’ll roll with Dak and the home momentum seizing the opening day.

Cowboys 29, Giants 27

- Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5): Upset alert! Detroit has legit issues, but the Colts are struggling to find enough healthy bodies to field an 11-man defense. That’s bad news against a team with a new-look passing game featuring Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin and Theo Riddick. As long as Matthew Stafford doesn’t give the game away, he and his targets should have a monster 2016 debut. Indy will put up points of its own, but Detroit’s pass rush, nickel LBs and secondary are all significantly better than their host counterpart.

Lions 34, Colts 30

Monday Night

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington (+3.5): Playing a gut hunch here, nothing more. I really think the Steelers prevail, even though I can list several ways Washington can legitimately defeat them. Should be a fun Monday Night Football kickoff even if my gut is wrong.

Steelers 32, Washington 21

- Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): The NFL saved the weekend’s weakest game for the end. I love the second Monday night game on the opener, and the West Coast return by the Rams deserves a showcase. Los Angeles is favored on the road because their defensive front looks to be way too m6uch for a San Francisco offense in the grips of a massive rebuild. The Niners defense should be game, and if they can slow down Todd Gurley they can snuff out a Rams passing offense with real issues of its own. Rams coach Jeff Fisher always gets his team up for divisional games, though Chip Kelly probably has something up his sleeves in his Niners debut.

Rams 23, 49ers 17