We are down to the final four NFL teams. Both games this weekend figure to be entertaining on the last Sunday with multiple football games between now and September.

Both games feature the home team favored by a touchdown, which is a rather large spread for a conference championship game. And given the matchups, that touchdown might not come close to covering the final score…

- Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks

As with Green Bay’s game last week, much hinges on the health of Aaron Rodgers’s injured calf. The presumptive MVP gutted it out in the cold at home against Dallas, with a lot of help from Eddie Lacy.

The Packers were also helped by some blown coverages and poor tackling in the Dallas secondary, notably on Davante Adams’ long TD catch and run. It worked in the home comfort of Lambeau Field against the Cowboys and their 28th-ranked pass defense. It’s not going to be so easy on the road facing Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and Seattle’s #1 defense.

The Seahawks led the NFL in opposing pass yards. They ranked 3rd in yards per pass attempt and finished 2nd in yards per completion allowed. They finished 5th in QB rating allowed, though they ranked first over the final six weeks. In short, Seattle’s pass defense is fantastic and they’re even more suffocating at home.

Add into that the stark disparity between Green Bay at home and on the road. Per Elias, the Packers had the biggest margin between home and road scoring in NFL history this season. They averaged almost two full touchdowns more at home. That was with Rodgers at 100%. He’s not close to that right now.

Unless the Green Bay defense can somehow force the fantastic Russell Wilson into multiple mistakes and turnovers, the Seahawks should cruise. The Packers consistently struggle against dual-threat QBs, and with Marshawn Lynch attacking between the tackles the safeties will be really taxed. Green Bay’s defense is better than the national media would have you believe, but they are in for a major challenge here.

It adds up to a pretty straightforward forecast. The only way Green Bay wins is by Rodgers strapping the team to his back and Seattle choking at home.

Seahawks 30, Packers 16

- Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

I picked against the Colts in the Wild Card round against Cincinnati. Between the depleted Bengals receiving corps and inadequate pass rush, Indy found a way.

I picked against the Colts in the Divisional Round against Denver. Between Peyton Manning’s humbling inadequacy and Andrew Luck spreading the ball around nicely to eight different receivers, Indy found a way to overcome two Luck INTs and advance.

I will pick against the Colts in the AFC Championship in New England. Will they prove me wrong once again?

It is hard to see how they can do it. Looking back at the 42-20 New England thrashing back in November, there is little the Colts can grasp from that contest to engender confidence. Indy ran the ball for 19 yards, surrendering over 200 to Jonas Gray. Tom Brady had enough time in the pocket to brush his hair before throwing.

Now the Colts have to face a hot Brady with corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler both questionable. Even if they play, being limited is not good. Davis is one of the best cover men in the league.

Indy does catch a break with Patriots center Bryan Stork being ruled out. Unfortunately they’re not a defense that attacks up the gut well. Stork’s absence figures to limit the inside running, but it’s Brady, Gronk and the passing game that should scare the Colts.

If Luck can avoid the bad mistakes, the Colts do have a fighting chance. New England is vulnerable over the top, and Luck has weapons to beat them. Hard running--with no fumbles--from Boom Herron would help too.

Still, I think we are in for a repeat performance of last year’s playoff matchup between these two teams. The host Patriots won that game 43-22 thanks in part to four Luck INTs and LeGarrette Blount running for over 150 yards. New England’s random RB to gash the Colts this week (Vereen? Blount? Bolden? Gray?) will provide enough balance for Brady and the entire offense to put up yet another 40+ points on the Colts.

Patriots 41, Colts 27