After one of the weakest NFL weeks in memory, this week features several compelling matchups between legit playoff contenders. It’s also a strong slate of college games, making this a great weekend to hunker down and watch some football!

Last Week: 7-6. Picking two wild upsets ruined what was a promising week. It was also the first Thursday game I’ve missed all year. 88-46 on the year.

Gambling Update: I wagered a total of 1250 Uzbek som (street value: 10 cents) on four games. Only one of those horses came home, bagging me 500 som. The down week puts me at 5,250 som after starting at 10,000. I guess I should cancel those winter vacation plans to the Silk Road town of Khiva.

Thursday Game

Washington Ethnic Slurs at Minnesota Vikings (+2.5): If you’re looking for a way that the Vikings can win this game, have a gander at special teams. The Ethnic Slurs rank dead last in average net starting field position off kicks and punts. Meanwhile, Minnesota has a dynamic return man in rookie Cordarrelle Patterson. Check this out:

"Cordarrelle Patterson currently has the post-merger record for kick return average, beating out 2012 Percy Harvin and 1970 Jim Duncan," writes Arif Hasan on Twitter.

Washington ranks 29th in touchbacks on kickoffs, which means Patterson will get a chance to build upon his record pace. The problem for Minnesota is that in order for Patterson to get those shots, it means Washington has scored. That would indicate this game being a shootout, and in those cases I always turn to the better quarterback. In this matchup, that’s Robert Griffin III vs. Christin Ponder.

Here is the surprise twist. I think Ponder is due for one of his strong outings. He’s not a very good quarterback on the whole, but he has proven capable of spikes of surprising competence. The Washington defense will be a willing accomplice. I see a big night for Greg Jennings and an obliteration of the +/- 49 line. I like the emotional lift of Cris Carter being inducted into the Vikings Hall of Fame at halftime too.

Vikings 33, Ethnic Slurs 28

Sunday Best

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5): First place in the NFC North is on the line in a critical rematch. Detroit won the first meeting 40-32 in Week 4, clinging to victory after rocketing out to a 40-16 lead.

That contest was full of oddities. It was the first game and only game in the last three seasons which the Bears lost when they forced at least three turnovers. The Lions took the ball away from the Chicago offense four times. Since that game the Lions have two takeaways in four games as teams have adjusted to their improved coverage. Detroit even got the longest return of the game, the only time this season which that has happened for the Lions.

Here’s my quandary: Detroit is the better, healthier team in this matchup. But this is a franchise that is very hard to trust in critical games. The last time they found themselves in this exact situation, things did not go well. That was in 2011, and in Week 10 the Lions came off a bye week at 6-2 (they’re 5-3 this year) and traveled to Chicago. The Bears were 5-3 and coming off a Monday Night win, just as they are this time. The Lions had all sorts of confidence and reason to believe they could take the proverbial next step. Instead, Chicago took the ball away 6 times and pounded the Lions 37-13.

I greatly fear the same sort of outcome here. It’s a completely irrational fear based on the Bears’ truly wretched safety play, but I have visions of yet another humiliating collapse by a Lions team that should be better than that.

Bears 35, Lions 24 

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7): Saints Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan gets to face off against the Dallas team he coached for several years. This is a very dangerous situation for the Cowboys, because Ryan knows the weaknesses of the Dallas line and how to impact their offensive flow. Look for the Saints D to stymie Tony Romo and snuff out the running game.

Then there is the problem of the banged-up Dallas defense against Drew Brees and the Saints offense in the friendly confines of New Orleans. Brees can pick apart very good secondaries. Dallas will be starting reserves at three of their four DB positions. Ouch. Keep it simple with the matchups here, folks…

Saints 40, Cowboys 24 for 500 som 

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): The Panthers are hot! Winners of four in a row, Carolina rolls into San Francisco with a tough defense and an offense grooving behind an accurate, poised Cam Newton.

Unfortunately for Carolina, they are facing the only team with a longer win streak. The Niners have won five in a row and are coming off a bye week to rest their aches and pains. This is far and away the best team the Panthers have seen during their streak; their four consecutive wins have come against teams with a combined eight wins.

Carolina will keep this close, and having a wild card like Newton certainly gives them a chance. Given how strong these defenses are, it’s hard to see this being a one-sided romp.

49ers 20, Panthers 16 for 250 som

Sunday Rest

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-7): It’s hard to overlook what happened to the Oakland defense last week. They gave up seven TD passes in less than three quarters to a backup QB in Nick Foles, many of which had no discernible coverage at all. It was one of the most pathetic efforts on record.

The Raiders will bounce back; they have too much talent to not improve upon that cataclysmic effort. But they’re at a distinct disadvantage against a rested Giants defense in New York. The Giants throw the ball a lot, and they have talented receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz who can create after the catch. Even if Eli Manning throws a couple of interceptions--and I think he will--he’ll put enough points on the board to overcome the inconsistent Oakland offense. I don’t like the Giants giving a full touchdown, but I do think they continue their resurgence and get the home win.

Giants 31, Raiders 27 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-11.5): Will this be the week for Jacksonville to escape the winless column. In a word: NO!

Titans 30, Jaguars 17 

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (+6.5): Seattle has been dancing with fire lately, eking out tight victories over inferior teams. That’s a dangerous game to play, and I think it will bite them sooner than later. So why not here?

The problem is that these Falcons are so injury-ravaged at so many key spots. It’s an excuse but it’s also a valid reality. They’re tried hard to break their funk, but Atlanta simply lacks the horses to overcome at this point. This game presents them with the opportunity to salvage some dignity. It’s a great chance for Matt Ryan to prove he belongs in the pantheon on quarterbacks which his contract dictates he belongs. Russell Wilson is playing to get to that salary level, and I think that hunger ultimately wins this game. Be aware of the upset though, and I love Harry Douglas as a salary cap fantasy game ringer this week.

Seahawks 20, Falcons 17 for 250 som 

Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): The battle of I-79 doesn’t mean near as much as either of these teams hoped it would.

It’s time to forget your old expectations of what Pittsburgh is, because this is not a good football team. Their offense lacks punch, but the bigger problem is a toothless defense. They’ve given up almost 200 yards rushing in consecutive weeks.

Guess what Buffalo does really well? That’s right, they run the ball exceptionally well with a healthy CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson. Doing it in Pittsburgh will defy historical precedent, but these Steelers are almost unprecedentedly bad. Buffalo’s four-game losing streak in Pittsburgh comes to an end even though they have no idea who will be under center.

Bills 24, Steelers 21 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (+1.5): Last week was the first time I’d watched Baltimore in depth in a few weeks. What I saw was not pretty. These Ravens were consistently overpowered at the point of attack on both sides of the ball by Cleveland. Their secondary took too many poor angles and struggled with fundamentals like tackling and zone transitions.

Cincinnati comes to town after an uncharacteristic sloppy outing against Miami in the Week 9 Thursday game. They entered that game as the best team in the league at converting 80+ yard drives, turning bad field position into points. In four opportunities vs. Miami, Cincinnati had three turnovers and a safety in those situations. That is unlikely to replicate itself here. Even without Geno Atkins--a major loss--the Bengals defensive front should control this game. The Bengals bury the Ravens’ playoff aspirations with the road win.

Bengals 27, Ravens 20 

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5): As is custom with Colts games, here is what is likely to happen:

Indy will score quickly but then go into a prolonged slump. Andrew Luck will miss several throws and toss a pick for good measure. The Rams pressure will force a lot of problems, perhaps even producing a defensive score.

Just when it appears all hope is lost, the Colts and Luck rebound. Their defense tightens and produces nothing but 3-and-outs in the fourth quarter. Luck gets hot and throws two touchdown passes, with a 22-yard run mixed in for good measure. They seize the lead late. The Rams panic and give the ball back to Indy, which kicks a late field goal to salt the game away and improbably cover the spread.

Colts 30, Rams 20 for 250 som

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1.5): This is a toughie because of the injury status of so many Green Bay injuries. None are more critical than Aaron Rodgers, who will not play after breaking his collarbone Monday night.

I believe the Packers passing offense will look better than it did in the loss to Chicago. Seneca Wallace cannot do what Aaron Rodgers can, but that’s what he was asked to do in emergency duty. Now the Packers have time to tailor a gameplan to fit what Wallace can do. They’ll also be able to plan for Nick Foles, a phenomenon after throwing seven TDs last week in Oakland.

Don’t write off the Eagles just because this game is in Green Bay. The Eagles are a much better road team than home team. Look at their offensive third down performance. On the road they rank 3rd by converting 47 percent of their 3rd down chances. At home they sit 29th by converting just 29% despite the fact the average distance needed for conversion is almost a full yard less at home. It’s oddities like that which give the Eagles a strong chance against the reeling Packers. Still, I’m betting on the resiliency of a very good team.

Packers 27, Eagles 24

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7): I sat down to write this blurb with the intention to pick the Chargers. I really did. But none of the mental gymnastics I could concoct seemed the least bit credible. The closest one to rational I came up with was Philip Rivers lighting up a weak Denver secondary. And I do think Danny Woodhead is a matchup problem out of the backfield. But the Chargers do not have an answer for Wes Welker, Eric Decker or Demaryius Thomas. They can snuff out one, maybe even two, but not all three. Peyton Manning only needs one.

Broncos 38, Chargers 28

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): After a stellar first half under the bright lights in Houston on Sunday night, the Texans completely fizzled down the stretch. They lost that game to the rival Colts. More importantly, they lost their coach to a scary health incident along the sideline as they walked into the locker room at halftime. I think the combined emotions of blowing such an important game and fearing for the well-being of their coach is a double whammy.

Arizona is too good on defense to be surprised by Case Keenum. More importantly, they are defensively similar to Indianapolis, which made a couple of adjustments and puts the clamps down on the feel-good story. The Cardinals are very much alive in the crowded NFC Wild Card race, but they have to have this home win over an inferior team. I think they rise up and prolong the Texans’ misery.

Cardinals 24, Texans 17 

Byes: Cleveland, New England, New York Jets, Kansas City

Monday Night

Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5): Two teams within the throes of internal chaos meet in what is otherwise a dog of a game. The Buccaneers circled their wagons last week and put forth a great effort in Seattle. They ultimately lost, but they were game to the challenge.

Miami now must prove they can overcome the debacle that is their locker room right now. Two starting offensive linemen are gone after going to war with one another on a very public stage. It will be interesting to see how the team congeals around the controversy. Will they be able to unite and play better than their collective talent would appear to dictate? Tampa did just that a week ago.

The problem here is that they are in fact missing two starting offensive linemen. Replacing Jonathan Martin at left tackle is a castoff from a terrible Ravens line in Bryant McKinnie. Replacing Incognito at left guard is Nate Garner, who lacks Richie’s surliness and power. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has shown vulnerability when pressured.

Yet I lean towards Miami. I think the Bucs gave it their best shot last week and failed to record the victory. I’m not sold they can summon that effort once again in what figures to be a hostile home environment. The Dolphins do rally around one another and for one week it works in their favor. No way will it sustain, but for one week it abides.

Miami 26, Tampa Bay 20

Gambling Recap:

Indianapolis -9.5 for 250

Atlanta +6.5 for 250

New Orleans -7 for 500

Carolina +6.5 for 250

College Games

Baylor 50, Oklahoma 33. Too much Bryce Petty and Lache Seastrunk for the Sooners to overcome

Oregon 44, Stanford 27. Oregon stakes claim to being No. 1 in the BCS

LSU 20, Alabama 18. LSU hasn’t had a clutch QB like Mettenberger to match up with the Bama defense, and that helps them prevail.

Michigan 30, Nebraska 24 in a game I’m attending

Fresno State 30, Wyoming 28 in a battle of future NFL QBs Derek Carr and Brett Smith