Last Week: 11-5, which makes for clean math with the season tally now at 150-74, including a loss for the SF/STL tie.
I hope everyone has a great long Christmas weekend! Enjoy lots of college and NFL action as you finish up the shopping, wrap presents, and sit in traffic getting to those last-minute holiday parties. Don’t forget the reason for the season.
Saturday
Atlanta Falcons (4) at Detroit Lions (29): Somehow the final Monday Night Football game is on Saturday, the better to dodge Christmas Eve on the actual Monday. This Lions fan will take the early gift from the NFL for sparing us the horror that is to be unwrapped on us by the Falcons.
This is a terrible mismatch for Detroit. Atlanta has the deepest group of strong receiving options in the NFL and a quarterback who will stand in and deliver to them even under duress. Considering the Lions had trouble pressuring Ryan Lindley behind Arizona’s unimpressive OL and have had trouble with multi-level passing games all season, look for a big day from Matt Ryan. The emergence of Harry Douglas only makes it worse for Detroit, which is suffering from major injury woes on defense as two more starters (Jacob Lacey and Nick Fairley) hit IR this week.
Detroit does have the weapons to keep it interesting. The team is very focused on rewarding Calvin Johnson by getting him the most receiving yards in a single season in NFL history, and he could break Jerry Rice’s record in this one. Detroit is also better at running than the national media give them credit, but that’s mainly because Matt Stafford is going to move into 3rd in single season passing attempts sometime in the second half of this game. He will pass Matt Stafford of 2011 with his 34th attempt, and with 62 passes in his final two games he will break Drew Bledsoe’s record for most in a season. See, Lions fans, we do have something to look forward to; this season will be forever etched into the record books. So we can remember the 4-12 disappointment in perpetuity. How’s that for a lump of coal in the stocking? Falcons 33, Lions 27
Sunday Games
Tennessee Titans (28) at Green Bay Packers (2): The schedule gods reward the Packers for wrapping up the NFC North with a visit from the mistake-prone Titans. Tennessee comes off a short week, having sucked less on Monday night to let the Jets beat themselves and pick up the victory. It just might be the least impressive win any team gets all year. Jake Locker continues to struggle with accuracy and progressing through reads. Packers CB Casey Hayward will seize the opportunity to further his outsider campaign for Defensive Rookie of the Year, picking off Locker once and forcing a fumble on another pass. Aaron Rodgers in cruise control mode, flinging simple passes to Randall Cobb and James Jones, will be more than enough for Green Bay to keep the positive momentum heading into the playoffs. On the downside, I do expect Mason Crosby to extend his dubious string of missing a field goal in his 9th straight game. It won’t hurt the Packers in this one. Packers 28, Titans 17
Oakland Raiders (30) at Carolina Panthers (22): If you haven’t been paying attention to Carolina lately, and why would you after their miserable start, you have probably missed out on a very strong resurgence. The Panthers are hot, and it’s not just Cam Newton playing better. Their secondary is making more plays on the ball, and Greg Hardy is leading a re-energized pass rush that is playing with better coordination and confidence.
This is a radical change for Hardy, showing leadership and outward aggression. I remember him at the Combine, where he was as aloof and disinterested in human interaction as the average American is in Mauritanian politics. He stood off to the side, purposely separating himself from his fellow players during drills. He begged out of a couple of team interviews and by all accounts played a dead fish in the ones he did conduct. Somehow, Ron Rivera and his staff have unleashed the inner beast in Hardy and have found themselves an emerging talent. I love stories like this, where a marginal player finally sees the light and runs to it instead of cowering in the comfortable shade. Good for Greg Hardy. Good for the Panthers. Carolina 33, Oakland 16
Cincinnati Bengals (11) at Pittsburgh Steelers (13): For all intents and purposes, this is a playoff game. While there are some mathematical numerations that say otherwise, the winner of this game will make the playoffs and the loser will spend January watching the playoffs at home.
I’ll come right out and say it: I like the Bengals here. Even though the game is in Pittsburgh, these Steelers are too banged up and too divided. In the past they’ve always been able to rally around one another, but I get the sense that this year’s team just isn’t the tight, cohesive family of prior seasons. Between the discord of Ben Roethlisberger and Todd Haley, the wildly ineffective return of Troy Polamalu, and the constantly shuffling RB cartel, these just aren’t the same Steelers. What really hurts them in this game is the injuries in the secondary. Ike Taylor and Cortez Allen are out while Keenan Lewis and Polamalu are both severely limited by injuries. They need all hands on deck to handle A.J. Green, which they did quite well in the first matchup.
That first meeting is the only reason I give the Steelers a good chance of winning. Pittsburgh completely shut down the Bengals passing game, holding Andy Dalton to 105 yards passing on 28 attempts. Those are numbers that Cardinals QBs laugh at. Because Cincinnati never runs the ball well against Pittsburgh, Dalton will have to be much better. Cincinnati has just one 100-yard rushing game against Pittsburgh this century. BenJarvis Green-Ellis has been breaking more long runs lately, but you cannot expect that against Pittsburgh.
Or maybe you can. This Steelers team is so beat up, so disheveled. Normally this would be a no-brainer pick for the Steelers, but I’m going the opposite direction. Bengals 25, Steelers 21
Buffalo Bills (24) at Miami Dolphins (19): The QBs in this game are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill. That got me to wondering about who is the best NFL player ever named Ryan. It’s a pretty recent naming trend; the first Ryan to play in the NFL was Ryan McNeil, a journeyman corner who played from 1993-2003. The most famous Ryan is unfortunately Mr. Leaf, one of the biggest busts of all time. And as much as I love and respect Ryan Riddle, an excellent writer and Twitter follow who had a cup of coffee and a refill in the mid-00s, he didn’t make the cut to finalist.
I narrowed it down to three: current Panthers center Ryan Kalil, current Broncos LT Ryan Clady, and longtime Packers and Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell. Kalil has made the most Pro Bowls with three (and counting), while Clady is the only Ryan ever to make a 1st team All Pro. But the choice is Longwell, who ranks 13th all-time in points scored and 12th in field goal accuracy. As I have a little brother named Ryan (hi bro!), I don’t bestow this honorific flippantly. Dolphins 23, Bills 20
New England Patriots (3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (31): The Patriots seldom play well when double digit favorites on the road. Keep that in mind when the Jaguars unexpectedly make a game of this early. The intrepid gambler can take 16.5 points and the Jaguars and root for the Patriots team that played the first half last Sunday night. I sense an ugly game played in front of a half-empty stadium as the Patriots try to not get hurt and the Jaguars try to, well, be the best Jaguars they can be. New England 29, Jacksonville 14
Indianapolis Colts (12) at Kansas City Chiefs (32): Funny thing about the Colts. They are 9-5 but have a worse point differential (-49) than the 5-9 Chargers (-13), and they’re just one point better than the 4-10 Lions, whom they beat by two. Indy really only has one convincing victory on the season, a 27-10 thumping of doormat Jacksonville.
What does all that mean? Beware riding them too highly as the playoffs approach. The Colts are good enough to win just about any game but aren’t good enough to crush anyone. Even these Chiefs, who are terrible at quarterback and have lost their fight with the Jovan Belcher incident, are capable of giving them an unexpected run. This game will tell me a lot about the Colts. If they are to be taken seriously as the playoffs approach, they must double the Chiefs in scoring in this one. Anything less than that and they have to limp into a must-win finale with the Texans team that pounded them last week with a lot more pressure and scrutiny than they want. I’m hopeful Vick Ballard and the running game will show up strong, and the pass rush will force Brady Quinn into being stereotypical Brady Quinn, something like 14-for-31 for 109 yards and two INTs. Colts 24, Chiefs 6
New Orleans Saints (18) at Dallas Cowboys (10): Dallas fans have come to dread must-win games in late December in the Tony Romo era. There have been some truly awful ones in recent times, from the punchless loss to Philly last year in Week 16 to the 2008 losses to Baltimore and Philly that sunk them from 1st place to out of the playoffs, and even the loss the year earlier in Week 17 that pitted them against the Giants in the next round. And I can sense the trepidation up I-45 this week. Even though the Saints are a disappointment, they still have dangerous firepower. They also have newfound swagger after their defense somehow shut out Tampa Bay last week.
I think this is a game where Romo silences a lot of critics. I smell a big game for him and the Cowboys offense. I believe they are going to come out focused, sharp, and attacking a Saints team that has proven it will roll over if beaten early. I think they are going to rise to the occasion and set up a winner-takes-all game with the Redskins next week…and that’s when they’ll choke like dogs. Dallas 41, New Orleans 25
Washington Redskins (8) at Philadelphia Eagles (27): Sayonara Rob Parker! The inexplicably employed (he’s suspended for 30 days) ESPN talking head went off on a rambling, racist diatribe against Robert Griffin this week. He called RG3 a “cornball brother” and wondered aloud about his blackness. Apparently Parker, who is black, is offended by RG3 not having an arrest record or neck tattoos or a string of bastard children with various women. I guess he thinks that being well-spoken, self-aware, smart, poised, and appearing “normal” should be foreign concepts to black people. Parker might not see those traits when he looks in the mirror, but that doesn’t mean that all black people share his myopic, antiquated, inflammatory viewpoint of what it means to be black.
There is a certain bit of delicious irony that a team with a racial slur as both its nickname and mascot has to defend a racial attack against one of its own…in our nation’s capital no less. The ship on self-awareness there sailed sometime in the FDR administration. But I digress. Griffin exacts a certain level of vengeance by playing well enough in his return to secure Washington its 6th win in a row. Washington 20, Philadelphia 17
Minnesota Vikings (14) at Houston Texans (5): All the attention here is on Adrian Peterson and how many yards he can gobble up in his quest to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. He should have a big day, as the Texans run defense has fallen off significantly with the loss of Brian Cushing and the injury to Shaun Cody. No team has faced more rushing attempts over the past month than the Texans, which is strange given their inconsistent pass coverage and the fact they got a big early lead last week against the Colts. The reason is twofold; teams want to slow down JJ Watt and the devastating pass rush, and they’re finding success in running between the tackles.
Minnesota has an excellent run blocking offensive line, and they deserve more credit than they’re getting for AD’s dominance. I’m looking forward to the matchup between stud rookie LT Matt Kalil and presumed Defensive Player of the Year Watt. The key to the line has been center John Sullivan, who fires out to the second level and seals of targets in space very well. That’s a problem for the Texans and where they really miss Cushing. Houston has little to play for, though they do have a lot of pride in rewarding the fervent home fans. I’ll take desperation over pride. I’ll also take the Vikings resurgent D-line against a wobbly Texans offensive line. Peterson gets 157 yards and two long touchdowns as the Vikings pull off the surprise to stay afloat in the NFC playoff race. Minnesota 26, Houston 24
Cleveland Browns (21) at Denver Broncos (6): If you go back in Peyton Manning’s long history, his teams have an alarming tendency to drop games once they’ve clinched their playoff fate. Keep that in the back of your mind as you carve the Broncos into your lock picks for the week. It would take the Browns playing better than they have been, even in recent victories, to down the Broncos team that blew away Baltimore last week, but they have the potential to do it. Of course Manning could be motivated by his desire to win another MVP and keep momentum rolling into the playoffs with his new team. That’s the safer bet, and that is my forecast, but it’s not as confident as most would think. Denver 25, Cleveland 22
San Diego Chargers (25) at New York Jets (16): Here’s a radical thought--trade Philip Rivers for Mark Sanchez. Both quarterbacks need a change of scenery, a fresh break from the teams that currently surround them. Never mind, I’ll put down the Dos Equis and stop fabricating trade rumors like some message board lunatic, or Charley Casserly.
I’m going to do something nobody else is going to do, and that is give credit to Rex Ryan for his coaching job this year. Seriously. The defense has not quit and has played pretty well even in the absence of Revis Island. They Jets have the worst offensive skill position talent in the NFL by a pretty deep margin, but they’ve scored enough to win six games. This is a bottom five team overall in terms of roster talent, but currently there are 13 teams slated to draft before them. That’s good coaching. Norv Turner on the other hand… Jets 16, Chargers 13
St. Louis Rams (17) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23): It was only a matter of time before the Bucs turned on Greg Schiano and his coaches. After their latest humiliation, getting shut out by the Saints (shutout by the Saints?!?) an anonymous Buccaneer was quoted as saying the coaches “need to go back to college”. This came on the heels of Assistant Coach Brian Cox, a perennial hothead during his playing days being pushed by LB Adam Hayward on the sideline…and Schiano siding with the player. Guess who won’t be back in Tampa next season… Rams 32, Bucs 21
Chicago Bears (20) at Arizona Cardinals (26): After the first four weeks of the season, these were the top two teams in the NFC. Arizona has won just once since that time, last week’s cathartic embarrassment of the Lions. Chicago pushed their record out to 7-1 before skidding to losses in 5 of their last six. The Bears are still the better team in this game, but if the Cardinals who played last week show up again, the home team is going to roll. Calais Campbell and Daryl Washington were phenomenal against Detroit, disrupting the pocket and snuffing out any semblance of a run game. Their DBs continue to be aggressive in making plays on the ball, and Jay Cutler will force throws into coverage.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Chicago’s decline is their own inability to force turnovers. After forcing 30 in their first nine games, they have just seven in their last five. The injuries to Urlacher and Tim Jennings have robbed the unit of its best thieves, while also exposing the thin depth. The overall defense is faring about the same as it was early, it’s just that they were getting stops via the turnover that are no longer coming. With their myriad offensive line woes, both injury and talent related, the defense just isn’t good enough unless they’re +2 or better in the turnover battle. Arizona will give up the ball, but Chicago will too. Cardinals 20, Bears 17
New York Giants (9) at Baltimore Ravens (15): I’m done trying to predict which Giants team is going to show up. They fluctuate from looking like the team to beat of all the playoff teams to a team that has the look of earning a top 5 overall draft pick. The hard part is that every Giants game is all about the Giants. They either win games themselves or they lose games themselves. New York should win this game against the fading Ravens, but you just never know with the G-Men. I’m picking the Giants, but you could just as easily expect the predicted score to be flipped. Bet it at your peril! New York 33, Baltimore 13
San Francisco 49ers (1) at Seattle Seahawks (7): (cue Brent Musburger voice) The NFC West is on the line here in Seattle as the defending champion San Fran Cisco Fort E Nine Errs visit the high flying See Att Al See Hawks. You can feel the twelfth man in your living rooms! This place is loud, ladies and gentlemen, and you are in for a prime time treat tonight! Seattle is the hottest team in North America. In the last two weeks they pounded the Arizona Cardinals 58 to zero and last week they crossed the border to whip the Bills in Toronto 51-17. I’m here to tell you folks, Pete Carroll has his team peaking at just the right time.
But this is no ordinary opponent they face tonight. This is the San Francisco 49ers, winners in New England in one of the greatest games you will ever watch. Young Colin Kaepernick has proven his coach’s hunch correct, and the second-year quarterback has opened up the Niners offense with impressive results. He faces a stern challenge with Bobby Wagner and the rest of the fast and furious Seattle defense. Speaking of Fast and Furious, pick up the latest DVD/Blue Ray combo pack at a fine retailer near you.
I turn to my partner for the night, Jon Gruden. Whattaya think there, coach?
(cue Gruden voice) Golly jeez Brent, if you can’t get fired up for this football game you might as well go bake your head. You’ve got Russell Wilson here, and this kid is just great. Even though he’s short like me, he can make all the throws. And boy are they good at running the ball. Someone fed Marshawn Lynch his Skittles and he was a kid in a candy store against Buffalo. But Wilson, he steals all the touchdowns because he can run too and in this league it’s all about the quarterbacks.
(Brent) Right you are partner, and we’ve got two good ones here tonight. Expect to see a lot of frantic activity in and out of the pocket, and a lot of big runs from Frank Gore and your friend Mr. Lynch. But these teams can play some defense too, eh partner?
(Gruden) Absolutely Brent! I get so fired up watching these linebackers. Patrick Willis and Navorro Bowman, man if I had guys like that I might still be coaching. There’s Justin Smith, the best defensive end in the league and he’s not even the bet Smith on his team. This kid Aldon Smith, boy can he rush the passer! I don’t know how you block him. And don’t get me started on Antoine Winfield. That little man packs a big punch.
(Brent) Give me a quick prediction here, partner. Who do you like?
(Gruden) Man it’s so hard. I love every player on both teams so much. I mean, if I had teams like this I would spend my winters polishing my Super Bowl rings. But as I said earlier, it’s all about the quarterbacks. And I like this Russell Wilson in this home environment. You know it rains here a lot Brent? Watch Russell Wilson make it rain tonight.
(Brent) A real rainmaker, eh coach? Let’s hope the Niners brought their galoshes!
Seattle 20, San Francisco 17